All-In Podcast: 2026 Predictions — January 10, 2026

Panelists: Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks, David Friedberg
Main Theme: The besties deliver an in-depth, high-energy sweep of 2026 predictions across politics, economics, tech, social trends, business winners/losers, and media — with classic All-In banter and sharp, sometimes combative, insights.

Episode Overview

The besties dive into predictions, hot takes, and spirited arguments on what 2026 will bring. They kick off with California's wealth tax uproar and open the floor to a lightning round of forecasts — from political shakeups and economic growth, to which businesses will dominate or collapse, and what societal and media trends to watch. True to form, they infuse data points, anecdotes, and memorable rants in trademark All-In style.

Key Segments, Insights, and Notable Quotes

1. California Wealth Tax Exodus & The Texas Migration (00:47 - 08:42)

Main Points:
- Sacks has moved to Texas, triggering jokes about California's climate/tax regime.
- Discussion on mass exodus of high-net-worth individuals from California ("about half a trillion of net worth"), and the unsustainability of proposed wealth and asset taxes.
- Both left and right in California are rallying against the asset tax.
- Sacks and Chamath explain why even prominent Democrats feel the proposal is insane (Reid Hoffman cited).
Notable Quotes:
- Chamath: "Even Reid Hoffman thinks this is insane. I think a lot of other people will leave. It’s probably half the total wealth that the budget estimated would be available to be taxed will be gone." (03:22)
- Sacks: "Even if it’s beaten in 2026, I think a lot of people expect some version of this comes back in 2028… that’s what pushed me over the edge in terms of leaving." (04:26)

2. Will the Wealth Tax Make the Ballot? (08:42 - 11:07)

Polymarket predictions discussed. Consensus is skeptical that it even makes the ballot, but if it does, it’ll catalyze a huge political moment and possibly a surge in out-migration.
Banter about political gamesmanship and how signature gathering works.
Notable Quote:
- Sacks: "There's only two ways it doesn't get on the ballot: either the union doesn't find the money, or Gavin Newsom negotiates them to stand down." (09:41)

3. Predictions Lightning Round – Politics (13:06 - 17:34)

Biggest Political Winners 2026

Friedberg: "Democratic Socialists of America — like MAGA took the GOP, DSA is taking the Dems."
Chamath: "Whoever is going to fight waste, fraud, and abuse at all levels of government."
Sacks: "The Trump boom."
- Delivers a data-laden monologue on economic performance (GDP, jobs, S&P highs, inflation, etc.)
- Predicts 5% GDP in 2026: “If we print six [percent GDP], the only country that’s done that is China… under a command economy. Doing it under democracy and capitalism is outrageous.” (15:13)
Jason: "Mondami moment" — left-wing populist surges fueled by Trump’s pivot to international engagement over domestic issues.

Biggest Political Losers 2026

Sacks: "Democratic centrism — the base and competitive pressures are pushing everyone left."
Chamath: "The Monroe Doctrine — Trump’s presidency is redefining America's global engagement."
Friedberg: "The tech industry — AI/tech wealth is now a populist target on both left and right."
- Cites Republican senators’ growing distrust of tech leaders.
Jason: "Centrists Democrats, and possibly neocon Trump."
Notable Exchanges:
- Sacks explains why Trump’s military actions aren’t "neocon," prompting debate on new paradigms in American foreign policy. (27:10 - 32:11)
- “Stick and move is the game.” – Sacks defending Trump’s foreign policy approach (31:49)

4. Business Predictions: Winners & Losers (33:04 - 46:37)

Biggest Business Winners 2026

Friedberg: "Huawei (China) and Polymarket. Both will massively outperform expectations."
Chamath: "Copper — demand will vastly outstrip supply as America moves to unilateral economic resilience. By 2040, we’re on track to be 70% short."
Sacks: "The IPO — 2026 will reverse the decline in public companies. Trillions in new market cap."
Jason: "Amazon — will become first 'corporate singularity', with more robots than humans driving profit."
Memorable Moment:
- Sacks, to Jason: "My prediction is that JCal is such a luck box… he’ll end up being right about Amazon but not for the reason he gave." (37:08)

Biggest Business Losers 2026

Friedberg: "State governments — financial crisis from pensions and mounting exposure of waste, fraud, and abuse."
Chamath: "Software industrial complex — the 'maintenance and migration' gravy train is ending due to AI and automation."
Sacks: "California — capital flight, business hostility, and regulation doom their prospects."
Jason: "Young white-collar workers — AI and automation are eliminating entry-level jobs."
Cultural Note:
- Friedberg relays that many CEOs are still hiring, but are seeing quality and motivation problems among Gen Z grads.
- Friedberg: "The Gen Z kids are all really challenging to hire — cultural issues, not AI." (47:12)

5. Biggest Deal & Contrarian Belief (50:21 - 62:13)

Biggest Deal 2026

Sacks: "Coding assistants/tool use in AI is about to have its ChatGPT moment."
Friedberg: "Russia-Ukraine settles — driven by economics and a global reset, Trump can broker peace."
Chamath: "The rise of 'IP-license' mega-deals replacing M&A — you’ll see $100 billion+ value created via creative licensing, as regulators doom traditional M&A for AI companies."
Jason: "A Mag 7 company (Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon) does a $50B+ deal to acquire or license from a major LLM player (Xai, Mistral, Perplexity, Anthropic)."

Most Contrarian Belief

Friedberg: "Post-Ayatollah Iran is not a stabilizer — conflict among Gulf states and in Palestine will spike once Iran becomes a democracy."
Sacks: "AI will increase demand for knowledge workers due to Jevons Paradox."
- “As the cost of code drops, aggregate demand for it increases. Radiology’s a great example — more AI, more scans, more radiologists needed.” (58:26)
Chamath:
1. "SpaceX will not IPO, but reverse-merge into Tesla to consolidate Musk’s empire."
2. "Central banks will create a new cryptographic asset class as a hedge against both gold and Bitcoin."
Jason: "US–China standoff (including Taiwan) will be resolved in a mutually beneficial deal under Trump; signature achievement of his term."

6. Best and Worst Performing Assets for 2026 (63:47 - 75:04)

Best Performing Assets

Friedberg: "Polymarket — driven by network effects, replacing markets and media."
Chamath: "Basket of critical metals."
Sacks: "Tech — the 'supercycle'; Q4 2025 GDP at 5.4%, US is a coiled spring."
Jason: "Gambling/wagering platforms (Robinhood, Polymarket, PrizePicks, Coinbase), as consumers have more cash and optimism."

Worst Performing Assets

Sacks: "California luxury real estate — overhang from wealth tax, luxury taxes, and transaction freezes." (69:14)
Chamath: "Hydrocarbons — electrification trends are unstoppable; oil more likely to see $45/barrel than $65." (71:04)
Jason: "US Dollar — ongoing debasement and runaway debt."
Friedberg: "Netflix (if it fails to close Warner Bros.); otherwise, traditional media stocks."

7. Most Anticipated Trend of 2026 (75:11 - 80:00)

Friedberg: "Iran becomes an independent democracy, rewriting the Middle East."
Sacks: "Auditing government spending at all levels — 'Let a thousand Nick Shirleys bloom.'" (78:32)
Chamath: "Expansion of the Trump Doctrine — unilateralism, economic resilience, and record GDP prints."
Jason: "Year of the mega-IPO — public wants a share in the next tech wave (SpaceX, Stripe, Anthropic, OpenAI)."

8. Most Anticipated Media / Culture (81:47 - 87:30)

Friedberg/Chamath: "Citizen journalism and aggressive man-on-the-street exposés rise with Substack, YouTube, and X sharing monetization."
Jason/Sacks:
- "Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey (though Chamath lambasts the source material: 'the Odyssey is a terrible book')."
- "Dune: Part 3," "Avengers: Doomsday" (big franchise films).
Running joke: Chamath dunks on Nolan’s Odyssey, threatening to short it: "How do I short that movie?…I bet zero." (86:20)

Notable Quotes, Laughs & Memorable Moments

Jason, classic self-mythologizing: "I, Jason Calacanis, named, created, and am the executive producer for life."
Chamath, deadpan award: "I will pick me [as biggest business winner]. It’s already done."
Friedberg, on youth jobs: "The Gen Z kids are all really challenging to hire because of cultural issues, not AI." (47:12)
Sacks, on the new paradigm: "Maybe Chamath is right – it’s definitely not neocon. We’re going to need a new name for it." (29:19)
On All-In’s popularity: "You’re welcome." – Chamath, after hitting one million YouTube subscribers. (88:00)
Banter on business divestment: "…the economic cost to Sacks will probably exceed a billion dollars by the time he leaves personally." – Chamath, ribbing Sacks.
Meta-moment: "Let a thousand Nick Shirleys bloom," Sacks, referring to the citizen journalist shaking up California politics (78:43).

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |---------|-----------| | Texas migration & CA exodus | 00:47 – 08:42 | | Wealth tax ballot odds | 08:42 – 11:07 | | Political winner predictions | 13:06 – 17:34 | | Political loser predictions | 18:05 – 32:11 | | Business winners/losers | 33:04 – 46:37 | | Young workers & AI/culture debate | 46:37 – 50:21 | | Biggest deal & contrarian beliefs | 50:21 – 62:13 | | Best/worst performing asset | 63:47 – 75:04 | | Most anticipated trend | 75:11 – 80:00 | | Most anticipated media | 81:47 – 87:30 | | YouTube subscriber milestone & close | 87:30 – end |

Tone & Style

Language: Blunt, irreverent, rapid-fire; high on data and anecdotes; frequent in-jokes and ribbing.
Panel Dynamics: Jason the showman/stirrer, Sacks the technocrat/statistician, Chamath the soothsayer, Friedberg the science-brained empiricist.

Essential Takeaways

Populism — left and right — is reshaping politics and business in 2026.
AI, automation, and the great tax migration are cascading through Silicon Valley and America's economy.
All things are up for audit: taxes, spending, even the social contract itself.
The “Trump Boom” is real for asset prices, IPOs, and GDP — but comes with geopolitical recalibration.
Media and content are in flux — the era of the citizen exposé is here, and All-In celebrates its first million subs.
Besties are still (mostly) united: “We kept the band together for one more year.” (89:32)

Summary by an All-In bestie for anyone who needs the big ideas, the laughs, and the best predictions of the future.

All-In Podcast: 2026 Predictions — January 10, 2026

Episode Overview

Key Segments, Insights, and Notable Quotes

1. California Wealth Tax Exodus & The Texas Migration (00:47 - 08:42)

Main Points:
- Sacks has moved to Texas, triggering jokes about California's climate/tax regime.
- Discussion on mass exodus of high-net-worth individuals from California ("about half a trillion of net worth"), and the unsustainability of proposed wealth and asset taxes.
- Both left and right in California are rallying against the asset tax.
- Sacks and Chamath explain why even prominent Democrats feel the proposal is insane (Reid Hoffman cited).
Notable Quotes:
- Chamath: "Even Reid Hoffman thinks this is insane. I think a lot of other people will leave. It’s probably half the total wealth that the budget estimated would be available to be taxed will be gone." (03:22)
- Sacks: "Even if it’s beaten in 2026, I think a lot of people expect some version of this comes back in 2028… that’s what pushed me over the edge in terms of leaving." (04:26)

2. Will the Wealth Tax Make the Ballot? (08:42 - 11:07)

Polymarket predictions discussed. Consensus is skeptical that it even makes the ballot, but if it does, it’ll catalyze a huge political moment and possibly a surge in out-migration.
Banter about political gamesmanship and how signature gathering works.
Notable Quote:
- Sacks: "There's only two ways it doesn't get on the ballot: either the union doesn't find the money, or Gavin Newsom negotiates them to stand down." (09:41)

3. Predictions Lightning Round – Politics (13:06 - 17:34)

Biggest Political Winners 2026

Friedberg: "Democratic Socialists of America — like MAGA took the GOP, DSA is taking the Dems."
Chamath: "Whoever is going to fight waste, fraud, and abuse at all levels of government."
Sacks: "The Trump boom."
- Delivers a data-laden monologue on economic performance (GDP, jobs, S&P highs, inflation, etc.)
- Predicts 5% GDP in 2026: “If we print six [percent GDP], the only country that’s done that is China… under a command economy. Doing it under democracy and capitalism is outrageous.” (15:13)
Jason: "Mondami moment" — left-wing populist surges fueled by Trump’s pivot to international engagement over domestic issues.

Biggest Political Losers 2026

Sacks: "Democratic centrism — the base and competitive pressures are pushing everyone left."
Chamath: "The Monroe Doctrine — Trump’s presidency is redefining America's global engagement."
Friedberg: "The tech industry — AI/tech wealth is now a populist target on both left and right."
- Cites Republican senators’ growing distrust of tech leaders.
Jason: "Centrists Democrats, and possibly neocon Trump."
Notable Exchanges:
- Sacks explains why Trump’s military actions aren’t "neocon," prompting debate on new paradigms in American foreign policy. (27:10 - 32:11)
- “Stick and move is the game.” – Sacks defending Trump’s foreign policy approach (31:49)

4. Business Predictions: Winners & Losers (33:04 - 46:37)

Biggest Business Winners 2026

Friedberg: "Huawei (China) and Polymarket. Both will massively outperform expectations."
Chamath: "Copper — demand will vastly outstrip supply as America moves to unilateral economic resilience. By 2040, we’re on track to be 70% short."
Sacks: "The IPO — 2026 will reverse the decline in public companies. Trillions in new market cap."
Jason: "Amazon — will become first 'corporate singularity', with more robots than humans driving profit."
Memorable Moment:
- Sacks, to Jason: "My prediction is that JCal is such a luck box… he’ll end up being right about Amazon but not for the reason he gave." (37:08)

Biggest Business Losers 2026

Friedberg: "State governments — financial crisis from pensions and mounting exposure of waste, fraud, and abuse."
Chamath: "Software industrial complex — the 'maintenance and migration' gravy train is ending due to AI and automation."
Sacks: "California — capital flight, business hostility, and regulation doom their prospects."
Jason: "Young white-collar workers — AI and automation are eliminating entry-level jobs."
Cultural Note:
- Friedberg relays that many CEOs are still hiring, but are seeing quality and motivation problems among Gen Z grads.
- Friedberg: "The Gen Z kids are all really challenging to hire — cultural issues, not AI." (47:12)

5. Biggest Deal & Contrarian Belief (50:21 - 62:13)

Biggest Deal 2026

Sacks: "Coding assistants/tool use in AI is about to have its ChatGPT moment."
Friedberg: "Russia-Ukraine settles — driven by economics and a global reset, Trump can broker peace."
Chamath: "The rise of 'IP-license' mega-deals replacing M&A — you’ll see $100 billion+ value created via creative licensing, as regulators doom traditional M&A for AI companies."
Jason: "A Mag 7 company (Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon) does a $50B+ deal to acquire or license from a major LLM player (Xai, Mistral, Perplexity, Anthropic)."

Most Contrarian Belief

Friedberg: "Post-Ayatollah Iran is not a stabilizer — conflict among Gulf states and in Palestine will spike once Iran becomes a democracy."
Sacks: "AI will increase demand for knowledge workers due to Jevons Paradox."
- “As the cost of code drops, aggregate demand for it increases. Radiology’s a great example — more AI, more scans, more radiologists needed.” (58:26)
Chamath:
1. "SpaceX will not IPO, but reverse-merge into Tesla to consolidate Musk’s empire."
2. "Central banks will create a new cryptographic asset class as a hedge against both gold and Bitcoin."
Jason: "US–China standoff (including Taiwan) will be resolved in a mutually beneficial deal under Trump; signature achievement of his term."

6. Best and Worst Performing Assets for 2026 (63:47 - 75:04)

Best Performing Assets

Friedberg: "Polymarket — driven by network effects, replacing markets and media."
Chamath: "Basket of critical metals."
Sacks: "Tech — the 'supercycle'; Q4 2025 GDP at 5.4%, US is a coiled spring."
Jason: "Gambling/wagering platforms (Robinhood, Polymarket, PrizePicks, Coinbase), as consumers have more cash and optimism."

Worst Performing Assets

Sacks: "California luxury real estate — overhang from wealth tax, luxury taxes, and transaction freezes." (69:14)
Chamath: "Hydrocarbons — electrification trends are unstoppable; oil more likely to see $45/barrel than $65." (71:04)
Jason: "US Dollar — ongoing debasement and runaway debt."
Friedberg: "Netflix (if it fails to close Warner Bros.); otherwise, traditional media stocks."

7. Most Anticipated Trend of 2026 (75:11 - 80:00)

Friedberg: "Iran becomes an independent democracy, rewriting the Middle East."
Sacks: "Auditing government spending at all levels — 'Let a thousand Nick Shirleys bloom.'" (78:32)
Chamath: "Expansion of the Trump Doctrine — unilateralism, economic resilience, and record GDP prints."
Jason: "Year of the mega-IPO — public wants a share in the next tech wave (SpaceX, Stripe, Anthropic, OpenAI)."

8. Most Anticipated Media / Culture (81:47 - 87:30)

Friedberg/Chamath: "Citizen journalism and aggressive man-on-the-street exposés rise with Substack, YouTube, and X sharing monetization."
Jason/Sacks:
- "Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey (though Chamath lambasts the source material: 'the Odyssey is a terrible book')."
- "Dune: Part 3," "Avengers: Doomsday" (big franchise films).
Running joke: Chamath dunks on Nolan’s Odyssey, threatening to short it: "How do I short that movie?…I bet zero." (86:20)

Notable Quotes, Laughs & Memorable Moments

Jason, classic self-mythologizing: "I, Jason Calacanis, named, created, and am the executive producer for life."
Chamath, deadpan award: "I will pick me [as biggest business winner]. It’s already done."
Friedberg, on youth jobs: "The Gen Z kids are all really challenging to hire because of cultural issues, not AI." (47:12)
Sacks, on the new paradigm: "Maybe Chamath is right – it’s definitely not neocon. We’re going to need a new name for it." (29:19)
On All-In’s popularity: "You’re welcome." – Chamath, after hitting one million YouTube subscribers. (88:00)
Banter on business divestment: "…the economic cost to Sacks will probably exceed a billion dollars by the time he leaves personally." – Chamath, ribbing Sacks.
Meta-moment: "Let a thousand Nick Shirleys bloom," Sacks, referring to the citizen journalist shaking up California politics (78:43).

Timestamps for Key Segments

Tone & Style

Language: Blunt, irreverent, rapid-fire; high on data and anecdotes; frequent in-jokes and ribbing.
Panel Dynamics: Jason the showman/stirrer, Sacks the technocrat/statistician, Chamath the soothsayer, Friedberg the science-brained empiricist.

Essential Takeaways

Populism — left and right — is reshaping politics and business in 2026.
AI, automation, and the great tax migration are cascading through Silicon Valley and America's economy.
All things are up for audit: taxes, spending, even the social contract itself.
The “Trump Boom” is real for asset prices, IPOs, and GDP — but comes with geopolitical recalibration.
Media and content are in flux — the era of the citizen exposé is here, and All-In celebrates its first million subs.
Besties are still (mostly) united: “We kept the band together for one more year.” (89:32)

Summary by an All-In bestie for anyone who needs the big ideas, the laughs, and the best predictions of the future.

All-In's 2026 Predictions

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Summary

All-In Podcast: 2026 Predictions — January 10, 2026

Episode Overview

Key Segments, Insights, and Notable Quotes

1. California Wealth Tax Exodus & The Texas Migration (00:47 - 08:42)

2. Will the Wealth Tax Make the Ballot? (08:42 - 11:07)

3. Predictions Lightning Round – Politics (13:06 - 17:34)

Biggest Political Winners 2026

Biggest Political Losers 2026

4. Business Predictions: Winners & Losers (33:04 - 46:37)

Biggest Business Winners 2026

Biggest Business Losers 2026

5. Biggest Deal & Contrarian Belief (50:21 - 62:13)

Biggest Deal 2026

Most Contrarian Belief

6. Best and Worst Performing Assets for 2026 (63:47 - 75:04)

Best Performing Assets

Worst Performing Assets

7. Most Anticipated Trend of 2026 (75:11 - 80:00)

8. Most Anticipated Media / Culture (81:47 - 87:30)

Notable Quotes, Laughs & Memorable Moments

Timestamps for Key Segments

Tone & Style

Essential Takeaways

Summary

All-In Podcast: 2026 Predictions — January 10, 2026

Episode Overview

Key Segments, Insights, and Notable Quotes

1. California Wealth Tax Exodus & The Texas Migration (00:47 - 08:42)

2. Will the Wealth Tax Make the Ballot? (08:42 - 11:07)

3. Predictions Lightning Round – Politics (13:06 - 17:34)

Biggest Political Winners 2026

Biggest Political Losers 2026

4. Business Predictions: Winners & Losers (33:04 - 46:37)

Biggest Business Winners 2026

Biggest Business Losers 2026

5. Biggest Deal & Contrarian Belief (50:21 - 62:13)

Biggest Deal 2026

Most Contrarian Belief

6. Best and Worst Performing Assets for 2026 (63:47 - 75:04)

Best Performing Assets

Worst Performing Assets

7. Most Anticipated Trend of 2026 (75:11 - 80:00)

8. Most Anticipated Media / Culture (81:47 - 87:30)

Notable Quotes, Laughs & Memorable Moments

Timestamps for Key Segments

Tone & Style

Essential Takeaways