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Sagar Enjeti

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Krystal Ball

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Krystal Ball

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Sagar Enjeti

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Krystal Ball

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Sagar Enjeti

Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.

Krystal Ball

This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.

Sagar Enjeti

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Krystal Ball

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you@breakingpoints.com turning now to insider trading, our great friend of the show, Philip Wegman, out with a great story over at the Wall Street Journal. Let's put it up here on the screen. The new Washington Temptation. Inside information and a prediction market account. And they detail multiple instances inside the White House or around the White House, members of Congress and others who are complicit and or alleged complicit in insider trading with some very eyebrow raising accusations. So let's start with the first one which is inside the White House. Back in March, people or back in April, people began to panic. Why? Because they found multiple suspicious trades on Polymarket where anonymous accounts made over $600,000 correctly betting on an April ceasefire announcement because of Polymarket's, you know, anonymity whenever it comes to their account status. They have no idea who these people were. All they were able to do was release a March memo telling staff they are prohibited from using non public information for financial benefit. However, there are a few other interesting ones. Let's put the next one up there on the screen. They talk here about how an anecdote over lunch at the Stovall House, a popular members only social club in Tampa, US Representative Anna Paulina Luna of Florida told associates in the summer of 2024 knew Trump would choose Vance to be his vice president, according to people familiar with the conversation. She said she had tipped off Rogan O', Handley, a popular MAGA influencer known as D.C. drano, about Trump's pending decision so that he could use the information to place a winning bet on polymarket. Now, to be clear, Paulina Luna and o' Hanley both deny the accusation and apparently it is being investigated by the cftc, the Commodities Future Trading Commission. Apparently she has filed some separate thing where, you know, she says it's a false accusation. I'm just laying out the details. O', Hanley, by the way, has separately told associates that he was behind a long shot attempt, mostly by social media, to get Trump to consider Luna as his running mate. And when the congresswoman told o' Hanley that Vance would get the nod instead he placed a winning bet on polymarket. The person said. Again, they have denied it, but that's one little anecdote that we have over there. We also have D3, just probably the most insane example that I've ever seen. Trump's teleprompter operator is now on unpaid leave for alleged prediction market bets on Trump speeches. And apparently it's not the White House that flagged this. It was Kalshee. The chief enforcement officer over at Kalshi contacted federal regulators about bets allegedly made about what the President would say in a public address. The White House press secretary said the President is aware of the situation, which she described as unfortunate and a disgrace, but has not yet said that he would be fired. ABC News had reported Thursday that Gabriel Perez, who has been operating Trump's teleprompter since 2016 used inside knowledge to win more than $100,000 betting on what the President would say in big speeches. The chief enforcement officer of Kalshi said that their surveillance team flagged, investigated, and referred those trades to the cftc. But you could see pretty specific. And this is where you know, Kalsheek look, I guess, good for you. Thank you for reporting this. But why do we have prediction markets on what Trump is gonna say, period, in every single speech that he says, they have prediction markets on the number of times that he'll say these things. And by the way, there are viral reels or tiktoks all over of guys who are sitting there betting on Trump saying the word low IQ or something like that this week and then sitting there sweating their bets, cheering. Many of these go viral. I'm almost certain that they're paid by some company or others. They're like, this is too how you can get rich betting on these prediction market. I mean, it's scum. Behave. Anybody else see all the Kalshee advertising around the. What is it, the around the World Cup? Anybody else see old Timothee Chalamet? Man, that all hurt. That one hurt. I'll be honest, I love Chalamet. So seeing the Kalshee commercial, it killed me. But look, this is the reality. It's the sports betting playbook. You know, they allegedly report these types of things, but nobody asked the bigger question, why do we have this in the first place? Why are you allowed to bet, period, on who Trump is gonna pick for his vice president? Or what are some of the other examples here in the Wall Street Journal? I mean, all kinds of stuff like.

Sagar Enjeti

Well, we got another good one. Remember our old friend Mark Moran?

Krystal Ball

Yes.

Sagar Enjeti

Who is. This is the guy who is, I guess, running for Senate in Virginia as an independent. He put out that weird video that everyone saying it looked like an alien and inhabited his body. Does a lot of weird, like, hand gestures. Anyway, he had already gotten caught for allegedly insider trading and he came out. Oh, I was doing it to prove a point about how bad this is. Okay, well, he's another one who's in here who got a tip from someone who worked at Heritage Foundation. He alleges it was this guy, Jake Denton. Jake Denton denies it that Vance was gonna be the vp. He placed a bet and told some other friends that they should get in on the action based on this intel from the Heritage Foundation. And it was in the grand scheme of things, as far as these things go, Small Potato has made over $600 on the exchange just shows you how endemic this is, though, because I keep thinking about, you know, we're getting these like, basically penny ante examples of this. You know, the teleprompter operator making 100 grand. That's a lot of money for most people. But you've got people who are making millions in these schemes. You know, you had that 60 Minutes report that connected nine different accounts who were making millions betting on different military operations with a 98% success rate. You're telling me they're lucky? Of course not. These are insiders who are racking up millions of dollars. And then of course, you couple on top of that, like all of the market manipulations from Trump. You think they're not profiting on all of these tweets that come out from Trump talking about different companies, talking about whatever's happening with the Iran war, et cetera, and the latest sort of overt play in this regard. We can put D4 up on the screen. I mean, again, this is just so incredibly scummy that this is our economy now. Trump media pitched $100,000 monthly fee for a fastest feed of the US president's post. And this is explicitly. Why would you pay $100,000 for that? Because you want to trade off, right a month so that you could trade off it so that you could be the first one into the market after Trump tweets out like, hey, loving Microsoft this month or whatever it is that he puts out, or Iran oil.

Krystal Ball

I mean, if you're an oil trader. Have I read the book Flash Boys by Michael Lewis? It was very, very good book. Came out probably almost 15 years ago at this point. I'm sure things have changed. But he detailed the original kind of high frequency trading and what you're talking about, the first to market news where even milliseconds make a difference, because that way you can place micro bets. It's basically a tax on the entire market system. That's what this is. It's overt. They're literally like, hey, we have a post which we know will be market moving and you have to pay first to get access to it.

Sagar Enjeti

Yep. Okay.

Krystal Ball

I mean, makes sense if you're a private company and you're aggregating this information, not when you're the person creating the information and then selling for the right to do it. Especially whenever you are the President of the United States. Yeah, look, it's exactly as you said, where. Yeah, look, we're focused on all this piddly nonsense like 6. And I don't mean to downplay it. As you said, 100k, that's a lot of money. But there are people out there making hundreds of millions of dollars in bets on oil, which we all know it's out in the open. We've done segments on this in the first place. So it's both at the micro and the macro level. If anything, you're like, why are you selling this money for so little? And just to give everybody an inside example that involves us here at the show. The only thing stopping me from making a shit pot of money on Graham Platner dropping out is my own ethics that. But it shouldn't be that way because guess what? Ryan and we talked about this on ama. Ryan had heard basically the full story about what was coming. They were waiting for it to come out. We had this 48 hours. I could have made 99 to 1 money on a prediction market if I wanted to. Same with weed. I remember reporting out that weed story about how Trump was gonna reschedule weed. I was on the phone making calls, trying to confirm the story. But it's funny, as I was reporting it and word starts to get out. I can watch the. There's some ETF or index fund which tracks weed stocks. I think it's called the MSAs or something. I'm watching this thing start to climb up, right? And I'm using this as part of a story. But what stopped me from buying it? Nothing. Is that illegal? I don't think so.

Ryan Reynolds / Guest Voice

Right.

Krystal Ball

I'm not a government official. I can do whatever I want. I technically have access to this non public information, but not through nefarious means or any of that. I'm just doing my job. Nothing stopped me from making 99 to 1 money other than my disgust at these people and this industry. It should not be that way. I can guarantee you there's not a lot of people who are gonna do that. Right? And that's the issue, I think, with this entire. You shouldn't even be able to in the first place. Also, that is not even fair because I literally had inside information. So did Ryan, so did our whole crew over here. Well, that's not fair because it's a public marketplace, which means we're basically stealing. It's a para mutual trade. We're taking somebody else's money, you know, from this. That shows you where you got some guy out there who's like, oh, you know, this is an easy way for me to make a 1% on my money, which. Please contact me for personal financial advice if that's somebody else. Who's doing something like that?

Guest or Interviewee

But.

Krystal Ball

But you do have a lot of dumb money, which is out there in good faith with no inside info, which is trading on this stuff. And is it really fair that I could steal that person's money just because of the job that I have? I don't think so. I just don't.

Sagar Enjeti

It's only going to get worse. I mean, as the economic situation becomes worse, as people become more hopeless, as AI takes jobs, the more desperate people are, the more these markets will flourish and the more that the money of the lower classes will be funneled into the pockets of insiders. I mean, that's what's going on here. You see it so Clearly. That pay $100,000 a month to get early access to Trump's tweets. Normal people are not gonna have the money to do that. So who's gonna benefit from that? Obviously, it's gonna be big players, gonna be people who are already wildly wealthy, or if you happen to be Trump or a Trump family member or close Trump associate, who knows what he's gonna tweet out before he tweets it out. You're in prime position to be able to profit. So it's yet another funnel from the poor and the working class up to the wealthy and insiders and elites in this country. And yeah, it's grotesque, it's a disaster. And it's increasingly, this is the substitute for the American dream. Instead of work hard, play by the rules, it's hope you get some insider tips so that you can make your own bank the way that the play the game that the big boys play and get your own chance at the good life through betting in these prediction markets. That's all it is.

Krystal Ball

All right, let's get to the next one.

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Interviewee / Family Member

David back in November brought up that he had accepted a job with ice. I thought of that. It was just a delusional thing because I'm used to him talking crazy, so to speak. So I said, yeah, sure you are, buddy. You know, I didn't realize that he was actually working for ICE until a yesterday. And I was completely shocked because I'm like, how do you keep getting into these jobs where you're around guns all the time? I asked him what was going on. He told me that I don't need to be answering questions for anybody, that all I needed to know was that it was a justified shooting and that he did do it. And he claimed that this man had tried to run him over. And I said, I don't see that in anything. And I've watched it from all angles. All I seen is how the car was going in circle after the fact. And then he's like, well, I need you to lie about my character, because this is how. Like, this is what it comes down to is the my character. I don't want you talking about any of the abuse in our relationship. Like, this is literally about me. Actually, I told him that I was not gonna lie for him, that I've waited years to speak my truth. I've been silenced long enough, and now I need to come out with everything. Because a man lost his life. It was abuse, not only to me, but to our daughter. And even being divorced from him, I've dealt with harass and phone calls, threats of him wanting to kill me. I believe that this man was murdered. I believe that David's mental health played a part in what happened. I think what happened was he was standing there during that operation, had a PTSD moment and hit fight or flight mode. And unfortunately, a man lost his life due to it.

Sagar Enjeti

So this gives you a window into the type of people who are being hired and the complete lack of vetting, I would say, intentionally, because obviously Stephen Miller and others want there to be a level of fear and cruelty that is, you know, evident on the streets. Can put the AP reporting up on the screen here. They have kind of a TikTok of this man's entire life. The headline here is, ICE officer in main shooting has history of violent behavior. Family and records say. Here's some of the details. The ex wife, whom the AP is not identifying because she fears retaliation, she did later come forward, alleged he has stalked and harassed her physically and verbally abused his daughter. According to multiple requests for temporary protection orders. Brillette tackled his teenage daughter and smashed spaghetti in her hair. During another outburst, he dragged his daughter around the house as she cried. Let's go and put the next one up on the screen. According to a message that one of the ex wives shared with ap, he repeatedly called her disgusting, suggested she and the other women and girls in her bloodline should die. Quote, all of you should have your effing throats cut. The voicemail said that the AP listened to. Yeah, you should. Am I threatening that I'm going to do that? Nope. Nope. But do I think that you should have your effing throats cut or should have had them cut? Yep. This is the man who was hired by ice. Let's put the Next one up on the screen. The lawsuit that Brillette filed in late 2023 against the main community college system, which administered training where he was earlier injured, said he was still significantly impaired in his inactivities and in his daily living. The suit alleged his post concussive injuries impaired his cognitive functioning and impaired his memory. So his life story is. And you had another relative who came forward who said, I cut off contact with this guy because I was fearful that he was going to be violent towards me. He was diagnosed with extreme bipolar and ADHD when he was young. Had severe mental health episodes, including trying to kill himself when he was 12 years old. Tried to enlist in the army out of high school. The army said no because of the mental health history. They encouraged him to go off of his meds and try again, which he did in a year. Then he ends up enlisting in the Army. I think he was in the main. Army National Guard, deploys to Afghanistan. You also have a quote in here of a family member who said, in Afghanistan, this is really where he really was trained to be violent. Trained to be what they described as a monster comes back, is floating around all different jobs. At one point he's working as a corrections officer and racking up these violent incidents with his wives and with his children. And then as the one ex wife says, he called her and said, hey, I'm gonna be an ICE agent. She was like, yeah, sure, yeah, sure, right. I'm sure the government wants to give you a gun and put you in charge of anything. She thought he was literally delusional. But no, they actually, actually did that. Let's put E6 up on the screen. This is some details from the second ex wife here said that he is capable of this level of extreme violence. She also felt the need to speak out about this ice age. And this is just complete, complete insanity. Especially given Sager the way that these. I say, I mean, it's insanity, period, end of story. To give a guy like this a gun and the level of power that he has, but especially when you consider the level of impunity that they have been allowed to exercise, the amount of violence that they have perpetrated, this was not the first or the last killing from an ICE agent, unfortunately. And so you can see, as in their rush to bring all of these new guys in, send them out into American streets, they've got an absolute psycho wife and child beater that they put into this position. And now a man is dead and his family is missing him.

Krystal Ball

Yeah, Brulette by The way did not respond to any requests for comment whenever he was asked about this. A lot of this, as you said, is pulled from court records, from AP interviews. He was given a chance, he was contacted by the Associated Press. If he were to do so, we would update a story in terms of, of what he said. But yes, zooming out. We do know that he recently joined ICE or had recently, it seemed, taken a, what is it, 20, 25. Had taken a real estate exam. Does seem like Afghanistan ptsd and all of that became a significant part of his story on top of what was already, according to these court records. Looks like very volatile behavior. And look, I mean, I think that it is incumbent upon law enforcement, military generally, that if you're going to put immense powers in people's hands, that you need to have some level of trust. And unfortunately this is a very common story I think both in a lot of branches of law enforcement. Yeah, you know, the body cam is the worst thing that ever happened to them. And part of the problem in this incident, body cam wasn't being worn, which is against.

Sagar Enjeti

No, it was worn, sorry, warned. It was not turned on.

Krystal Ball

It was not turned on. And so you had basically he said, he said situation. Then you had the initial statement by the DHS where I mean, I said it, they're hitting like whenever it comes. If you can't say I feared for my life and discharged my weapon, that's all you've got. Because if you have, I fear for public safety and discharged my weapon and a man was killed, good luck. There is no single justification use of force doctrine. And you know, I previously we talked about many of these other instances and I know it's unpopular, I think most of them you're probably gonna get off in a court of law just because of the extraordinary deference that police get in law enforcement shootings. Not this one. Definitely not. Whenever you have a moving vehicle where you, you know, against your own guidance, you try to move, you try to stop said vehicle and then you can't even say I feared for my life in that moment. And maybe I don't know what he said to the initial investigators. Obviously he probably can't speak because of, for legal reasons. But you know, if you have, if you got this level of documented problems in your history and then putting guns in those people's hands and then it becomes in a hyper politicized moment, it's a disaster.

Sagar Enjeti

Well, and let me play another aspect of this. Cuz we touched on this some when we were covering this killing occurred right on the heels of a similar, very similar situation in Texas where an immigrant was killed. And so Tom Homan went on the Sunday shows and Margaret Brennan challenged him because he's like, well, they should just comply. And she said, well, how do they even know that this is a law enforcement operation? Cuz you've got unmarked cars. The guy in Texas, his family explicitly said he thought he was being carjacked, which any reasonable person, you've got these psycho unmarked cars trying to, you know, push you off the road. He had a bunch of equipment in the back of his van. He's thinking, they're trying to steal my stuff from my work vehicle. Tom Hellman was challenged on this and really ultimately crumbles under pressure and admits that there may have been a problem with the way that the protocol went down here. This is E0. Let's take a listen to that. These were fatal shootings, of course, in Houston and in Maine and in Houston. It was an unmarked car. So when you're saying don't resist, these individuals who were chasing the man who died, they didn't have markings on that vehicle that would allow for him to know that they were ice. It just looked like a car coming after them. In the video,

Guest or Interviewee

no, they have emergency lights, officers have insignia. So when they get out of that car and approach the car, you can clearly see the law enforcement officers.

Sagar Enjeti

Well, in the video that has been public, it's not about these people.

Guest or Interviewee

I'm not saying it's a marc, but they have emergency lights and sirens. So when they pull some water, they want to activate the emergency lights. A lot of police departments, I'm in New York City right now. A lot of NYPD officers are driving unmarked vehicles, and that helps them find people that don't want to be found. Right. So, you know, but bottom line is we'll see when the investigation plays out. But they'd be alive today if they simply complied with a vehicle stop by federal law enforcement officer, just comply. If you don't think you've been treated right and they had no reason to stop you, then there's avenues to take them to court to sue.

Sagar Enjeti

Well, the family of the man in Houston said he thought he was being robbed because it was an unmarked vehicle, not that it was law enforcement at all.

Guest or Interviewee

They had emergency lights. They activate emergency lights, blue and light. You know, in my vehicle, I drive where I'm with my security details.

Sagar Enjeti

You've seen that on video?

Guest or Interviewee

Because we haven't seen one on video,

Sagar Enjeti

ma', am, that there were lights. Because in the videos that We've seen there aren't. And because there weren't body cameras, it is hard to substantiate some of what you were saying.

Guest or Interviewee

Okay, well, I have not seen the videos, but I'm saying our vehicles are equipped with emergency lights. Now, if they didn't activate the lights. Again, I haven't seen that video. If they didn't activate the lights, and then there's an issue there. Right, But I'm saying they are crypto lights, lights. So let me just caveat that they should have been cryptid lights and sirens. But I do not know specifically if they activated those lights.

Sagar Enjeti

I mean, that's pretty devastating there and then to claim, Sagar, you haven't seen the video. I mean, if you. If you haven't seen the video, what are you even doing? Like, this is your job. You're supposed to be overseeing this. You're supposed to care about whether the right protocol was filed, followed. This is an extremely high profile killing on your watch. And you're claiming I didn't actually get a chance to look at the video? Like, what? Complete and total bullshit. And she just has him dead to rights there?

Krystal Ball

Yeah, I mean, we saw the video there. There's no video, there's no emergency lights. I agree. I mean, in terms of being stopped by an unmarked vehicle, like. Like, yeah, if you flash your lights, I think most people would stop. Or if you don't, then at least you know, you know what's going on. But if you're coming up and somebody's coming up behind you, then a reasonable person could say, I had no idea what was going on here. Especially when you're in your vehicle. And then it's even worse because I'm not saying he deserved to die, like, period, but it's even worse that he wasn't even the person that was supposed to be stopped.

Sagar Enjeti

Right.

Krystal Ball

It's some random guy instances. I think Ryan and Juan talked about it. I mean, if you look at the story of this Colombian guy who was killed in Maine, it is honestly kind of insane. Like, he was the right wing. He seemed to have been like a right wing Colombian nationalist.

Sagar Enjeti

Yeah.

Krystal Ball

I don't know what he was doing here if he's a right wing Colombian nationalist, but. Okay, but I mean, just to show you, like, people are complex and a little different. And it does demonstrate that they didn't even know who they were stopping because they were supposed to try and stop some sort of. They were trying to stop another person whenever they pulled this guy over. And then initially he is shot in A bad incident like this, but given the background here, it will demonstrate that ICE is going to have serious problems. I also just think this is a preview of what the next three years are going to look like. Like, in terms of Democrats, if they take the House of Representatives and if they investigate or if they initiate any sort of congressional review of ICE hiring. How many more, David Brother. And like, this will validate, like, the look. And, you know, I'm not ACAB or any of that, but I know for certain that if you rush things and you don't do, like, a methodical job and you have a bunch of people who slip through the cracks or who are intentionally pushed aside or you don't initiate types of processes, like you're the government and you put guns in people's hands, like you're gonna own that entire process. That's gonna be. Seriously. I really think this is gonna be a massive problem.

Sagar Enjeti

And there was a brief moment where Mark Wayne Mullen comes out and says, we're not gonna do vehicle stops. And we're sort of accustomed to this vehicle stop thing. Now, this is new. In previous administrations, I think, including the first Trump administration, vehicle stops were only used with ICE agents or any sort of border patrol or any of these affiliated agencies in situations that were relatively extreme, where you knew who the target was, they were violent, there was some sort of criminal record. It was extraordinary circumstances. Now, this is just par for the course. And as you can see, in both of these instances, these guys weren't even the target. So they just literally were like, oh, they look brown. Maybe they're undocumented. Let's pull them over in this, again, very, very aggressive manner. No lights. In terms of the one down in Texas, we don't know in terms of the one up in Maine, because we have more limited camera footage there. But in any case, this is relatively new development. Mark Wade Mullen says we're gonna stop doing this for now. Trump immediately. Apparently, after Stephen Miller yelling and blowing his top over the pullback, Trump immediately comes out the next day and says, no, we're gonna continue. The other piece that I want to layer on here is, in a bunch of these instances, these ICE agents should go to prison. I mean, if you're the guy in Maine, there is even DHS is saying that they discharged their weapons out of fear of public safety. That is not a defense in a court of law. That man should be alive today. So in any case, you've had all of these instances of ICE agents and CBP who are starting fights, who are aggressive, who are assaulting protesters and immigrants themselves. Where there should be investigations, there should be court cases. Let's take a look at E9. This is a report from the New York Times that is saying that federal agents were told the FBI is no longer going to investigate ICE confrontations. And the TLDR here, by the way, the FBI denies this, but there were multiple federal agents that talked to the New York Times about this new guidance that they received. In any case, the TLDR here is that instead of the FBI investigating to see, okay, was it the protesters fault, was it the immigrants fault, were they actually assaulting ICE agents or were ICE agents involved in misconduct, potentially prosecutable misconduct, now it's going to be kicked to an investigative unit within ICE itself. So ICE investigating itself, you can imagine how much is going to come out from that. And then in terms of, you know, their level of trust and when they come out with these claims that, oh, this immigrant was trying to murder an ICE agent, he's lucky he escaped with his life, et cetera. Let's take a look at where the rubber meets the road, which is in a court of law when you actually have to produce evidence of these wild claims that have been made by basically everyone affiliated with immigration throughout the administration. Put E8 up on the screen. This is a comprehensive review from the New York Times. The headline on this article was they were charged with assaulting ICE agents. The cases are crumbling. Here are the numbers. 558 people were charged with assault of an immigration agent. 191 of those dismissed, 22 outright acquitted. You ready for how many convicted out of 558? 4. 4. You've had 246 that pled guilty. You have 95 that are still pending. And then you have a whole rash of other ones where they just dropped the charge. They just walked away from charging the people altogether, where the thing just completely fell apart. And you have instances here, Sagar, that are so wild, where, for example, you had an ICE agent that busted open someone's window, injured themselves busting open the window, and then charged that person with assault for the injuries that they caused to themselves. You have an example in this article of two women who were on their way somewhere, saw that ICE was doing an action and pulled into a parking lot to observe from a distance away. Afterwards, they left ICE agents, followed them again, had this very aggressive interaction with them and ended up claiming that they had assaulted the ICE agents where there was camera footage that proved that was not the case whatsoever. You have an Instance with Greg Bevino, I think that was directly involved in where he beat up some immigrant, then he charged the immigrant with assault. A jury came back and said, no, you people started this situation. So they have been rebuked numerous times. Crimes for making up incidents, for lying about what actually occurred. And under scrutiny, these cases frequently, frequently fall completely apart. And in many instances, and there's a quote in here from an expert, they say it's actually the ICE agents that should be charged. Like, in a rational world, they would be facing criminal charges. And so to your point about the political fallout, this is exactly the path. If Democrats get power in the House, certainly, or possibly also in the Senate, and certainly moving forward into 2028, if they end up with control of government, this is the sort of thing that the base is going to be pushing them to do, to look through the records of all of these ICE agents to go through the vetting process to see who is there. And obviously, there's a huge push to get rid of the agency altogether. And when you have situations like this total psycho with brain damage and mental illness and a wife beater and a child beater who was given a gun, that makes the case that, yes, this whole thing, we need a different process for handling immigration, enforcing, you know, immigration, forcing the border, that this whole thing is so rotten that it just cannot persist and go forward.

Krystal Ball

I mean, I hate to say it, I do think it'll probably come to pass. I mean, I will say, you know, you got 246 here who pled guilty. So it's not like, you know, half of them roughly did plead guilty. So it's not like it's invented out of whole cloth, I actually think.

Sagar Enjeti

But let me just say, prior to Trump, there were, you know, what the conviction rate was.

Krystal Ball

I'm sure it was 90%, 100%, 100%.

Sagar Enjeti

They have never failed on this. And now it's like they're just throwing it at the wall. Like, anytime someone just irritates an ICE agent, they charge him with assault, send them through the court system, try to make their life miserable.

Krystal Ball

Because prosecutorial discretion usually meant that you would only bring very extreme cases to these. Also, if you're not doing much enforcement, then you're also not going to have have many cases. But look, I have said it before, they blew the entire political stack whenever it came to the way that they wanted to do enforcement. There were a lot of different ways this all could have been done. A lot more people could have been deported and a lot more illegals could have left the country. And you didn't have to do literally any of this. They decided to go in this direction for the full show of force. And the entire country has basically turned, or most of the country has turned against it. Even people who are dramatically like me, who are on the side, largely because it's not just the political fallout. It's also just like, chaos. Like, he's like, guys, we can't live in a crazy world where you've got unmarked cars and people are getting shot. I mean, like, I literally went to that town of Bitterford. It's a very small town. Like, I'm like, when I saw the news, I was like, I cannot believe this, that this is happening in Bideford of all places. And so. And it's not just because I've been there. Houston too. Like, yeah, Houston's a city chock full of. Of illegals. But it's like, you can't just have it so that people are getting shot and pulled over. And that's exactly. Look, people turn on the border because of Biden, who left it wide open. Tens of millions of people came here illegally. Nobody really knows. The number's roughly 10 to 12 million according to the US governments. Before, under Biden, just in case people think that number is politicized, people found that intolerable. I certainly find that completely intolerable. I do think what we find here is now a situation where what you talked about there with the Democrats and their turn on, it's gonna be very similar to a lot of the way that Maga came into the office in January of 2025, where the whole, like, January 6th, we have to go after the prosecutors. We have to pardon many of the people who are involved. It became an issue which was absolutely 100% core to the Republican base. And, I mean, they did get a lot of what they wanted. And I think it will be very similar with the Democrats. I don't know how popular it might. Might probably be a little bit more popular, if I'm willing to guess. Whenever it comes to that time, I have no idea. But in a sense, it doesn't matter because it'll become the type of mandate that people will focus on. I mean, I do. I personally blame the Trump administration for taking this position. I also really blame the Republican Party, which stood at every turn and stopped any of the other institutional ways that you can have immigration. This could be a, I think, think 80, 20 issue easily if you had done it properly with mandatory E Verify and, like, genuine. If you would focus on like rapist criminal. If we had no C cot, we had no Minneapolis. I mean imagine what this administrator, no Iran war. All those things together we could be living in a totally different world. But and you know, then it would just be like human rights activists who are bitching and moaning all the time like they do no matter what. But now that is the popular position where you've got the median white college educated lib is screaming about abolish ICE. That is not the situation in January of 2019. So I could see the future quite clearly at least where things are going.

Sagar Enjeti

Well, speaking of people turning on the Trump administration, good transition to Tim Dillon here talking about JD Vance

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So we talked a little bit last week about J.D. vance on Joe Rogan, where he sort of postures like he's just some guy, you know, doesn't really have any power to do anything, just calling, you know, the way he sees it on the Epstein files and the Iran war, et cetera. Tim Dillon really had some fun with this when went in on JD Vance and really the administration as a whole. And also, by the way, anyone who can deduces support the administration, who we said must be the dumbest people on earth. Let's go ahead and take a listen to Tim Dillon sounding off on J.D. vance.

Ryan Reynolds / Guest Voice

This is the thing when, like, J.D. vance goes on Rogan and goes, well, you know, they have this whole discussion about the Epstein docs, and JD Is like, I'll go to my death believing it was a larger conspiracy. You know, it's. It's kind of like these guys like, well, what are you going to do? What are you going to do? It's like, no, you're the, you're the Vice President. What are you talking about? About JD Vance is talking about this like, he's a guy at a bar in the town I grew up in on Long island, where he'd be like, I'll always believe it was a conspiracy. You sure? That guy owns a pool company. He's, he's gonna, he's gonna be like, yeah, what are you gonna do? I'll always believe someone on there, this guy's the Vice President of the United States of America going on the biggest podcast in the world, going, yep, I read all the files. Trump's innocent. Also, I'll always believe there was a greater conspiracy there. I'll always think something was going on, but what am I going to do? I'm the vice president. That's J.D. vance's character arc right now is his whole entire thing is just telling people what the Vice President can't do. Like, what about the war in Iran? He goes, you know, there's not much I can do. I just kind of hang out and, you know, watch, watch as I'm part of the administration that betrays its voters and does the opposite of everything it said it was going to do. I Just kind of hang out and, you know, this Epstein thing, who knows?

Krystal Ball

This is the.

Ryan Reynolds / Guest Voice

They keep trying to play this game where they're like, this folksy, kind of, like, relatable, like, yeah, these fucking elites. These fucking elites with these. They're fucking the kids. They're stealing your money. What?

Krystal Ball

Who?

Ryan Reynolds / Guest Voice

You are doing it. You're the ones who are doing it. And they're relying on the fact that some of their most ardent supporters, the ones who aren't directly being paid off, are the stupidest people in the world. So that still works on them. They're like, yeah, fucking Hillary. Hillary Clinton. Fucking Hillary Clinton, the guy. They're in the White House. They have the Congress. They have the Senate. They have the Supreme Court. It is them. It is now them. I don't want to hear about the deep state anymore.

Sagar Enjeti

There's a lot there. I mean, I kept thinking, actually, about Thomas Massie was like, Trump saying, the elections are rigged. We won everything. What are you talking about?

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Sagar Enjeti

Like, you're in the White House. We have the House. We have the Senate. We have the Supreme Court. We won everything. What are you talking about? The elections were rigged. They were rigged for you. I mean, it's similar vibe here where he's like, you can't continue to sit here, J.D. vance, or anyone else and have this whole folksy like, yeah, we're really gonna stick it to those elites. It's like, no, that is you now. You are in control. This rest the buck stops with you people. You don't get to just, like. Like, divorce yourself from that reality and pretend like you're just some armchair quarterback or some pundit watching this thing from afar.

Krystal Ball

Deity said something very interesting in the podcast. He said, I'm not a public commentator. I do my best to work things on the inside. And I was like, well, man, you are on the Joe Rogan podcast, so you kind of are a public. Do you see what I'm saying? It's like, well, you know, pundits I just talked about in the icebox. I'm like, okay, I support massive immigration enforcement. I think they fucked it up. He can't even say that, right? Because that would cause a crisis. So everything. Epstein was like, trump did nothing wrong. And then he'll. Even Then he was like, I'll put my hands up. We did mishandle portions of it, but there's nothing damaging in it about Trump. You're like, my God. And then the stuff about Israel and the US Intelligence. I mean, this is why, even when we say it, he's the highest US Official ever to confirm to say Epstein had links to Israeli and US Intelligence. No US Official has ever uttered those words ever before. Current official, but no evidence to back it up. No deep familiarity with what he's saying. Is that an off the cuff comment? It's like, dude, are you just listening to a podcast talking about that or did you see intelligence? Right? And this is why. It's like, if you're gonna say anything, then you need to know exactly what you're talking. You speak from a position of authority and you at the very least, like, splitting the difference between I'm not a public commentator while you're literally public commentating is, in my opinion, like the worst of all of it. Because, okay, Anir, we all know what you're like. Joe Rogan asked him directly, would you handle things differently? He has to talk around it. He's like, well, the President has even said JD would have handled it differently. He can't even say, yeah, I would have. This is a fucking disaster. Cuz he has to praise Trump. He has to, you know, pay lip service to, well, we can't let the Iranians have a nuclear weapon. When I'm like, I don't even think you believe that. I don't even know if you believe that at all.

Sagar Enjeti

Think about how poorly his analysis, such as it was aged just from whenever that was recorded. He was like, oh, this, you know,

Krystal Ball

oh, it's a blip.

Sagar Enjeti

It's a blip. We're gonna get back to the negotiating. Say, are you? Are you? Cuz it doesn't feel like a blip right now. You know, now the Iranians are like, we're done negotiating with you. There is this theoretical 10 day proposal, et cetera. But they're pissed. They're bombing desalination plants, killing our service members in Georgia, Jordan, and we are bombing their civilian infrastructure and threatening all sorts of things as well. So doesn't feel like this is all just a little bit of a blip. On our way back. Days away from getting some larger deal. So even that quote unquote analysis he offered just days ago has already completely fallen apart. There was another part of this where Tim really went in on the Iran war in particular, and sort of the overall track record of the Trump administration. Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.

Ryan Reynolds / Guest Voice

This guy's on a press tour for a book. We're days away from troops on the ground in Iran. The Middle east is a total nightmare. The economy is a nightmare. There's trades of hormuz there's going to be like, a massive oil crisis soon. And they've given so much money to big tech and AI, the Flock cameras, all of this stuff, all of this. They're building a surveillance state with this money. They're building a digital surveillance state with the money. And he's got to do this kind of like, aw, shucks, can you. Yeah. Isn't it wack? Isn't it wacky?

Sagar Enjeti

He goes into this whole thing like we're weeks away from Trump nuking Iran. J.D. vance going back on with Joe and, you know, isn't this crazy, Joe? Like, I never imagined as a little boy growing up in Appalachia that I'd end up here talking to you after we just nuked Iran. And he said something that I think was actually very insightful. He's like, you know, the truth is, these wars, they don't work anymore. Like, the war didn't work in Afghanistan. It didn't work in Iraq. It's not working here. And he's like, that's part of what it's not working for Russia and Ukraine. And part of what is pushing towards a potentially really disastrous, insane, like, nuclear outcome is that this conventional military approach, it doesn't get you where you want to go anymore. And China has kind of recognized that they're not out starting wars, they're out spreading money around. Let's invest in infrastructure. Let's get tied into your economy. And that that's been far more successful for them in terms of building up their might domestically and also being able to do what they want to do and secure the supply lines they want to secure around the world. I thought that was actually a very insightful view of where we are, because it's true. You know, even he says they work for Israel because Israel is willing to, you know, just go completely buck wild and commit genocide. Is this working for Israel? Even Israel?

Ryan Reynolds / Guest Voice

No.

Interviewee / Family Member

No.

Sagar Enjeti

You know, I mean, did their genocide in Gaza? Has that really made things better for them? Their state has its own problems and is in a sort of their own existential potential catastrophe of their own making because of their insane actions, too.

Krystal Ball

Yeah, it is. It's fascinating, actually, if you were to put think about it, like, in historical terms. I was thinking a lot about this conflict in the context of World War I, where before the First World War, there was something called the cult of the offensive in a lot of these militaries, where this idea of you have these gigantic armies with mans and arms, you can just take over places. But what they didn't foresee was that the cult of the offensive, always running forward, would run into something called the machine gun. And so what happens very quickly on the Western front is the trench war. I actually think the drones are very analogous to that where prior to a drone technology, the conventional United States military could very easily be able to shoot down incoming missiles to take over the Strait of Hormuz and all of that. And look, we still do retain the ability to take the control. Control of the Strait of Hormuz. We would just have to, oh, I don't know, occupy the entire country of Iran. But even if we were to occupy it, they wouldn't just be getting shot with bullets and missiles. They'd be really the number one way they would die, as we say see currently in the Russia and Ukraine war, is they would die at the hands of these drones. And then the drones would disrupt the entire supply chain. So I think what the drone warfare and the development of the last, just probably 10 years, I remember seeing some preliminary drone stuff in Syria, is that it has dramatically made it so that the entire conventional military apparatus, which was the peace dividend of the United States military, poked post Gulf War, basically evaporated overnight. And we're just gonna have to deal with that. Like, that's the truth. It's kind of like the battleship for people who are familiar with that. Or even the original idea that aircraft carriers or that U.S. navy assets were invulnerable, that prior to World War II, there was a genuine theory, a belief in the Navy that a battleship or any of these other naval assets could not be sunk by an aircraft. And then one war happened. And even though this was disproved by members of the United States Air Force or Army Air Corps or whatever, at the time, they just went forward, it's not possible. And then you get into a war with Japan, you're like, holy shit. They're like, what are we gonna do about all these aircraft? I think the drone is very similar, and you have to rethink everything. And I'm only saying this in terms of that disrupts a fundamental theory of American power which has existed for your and my entire lifetime before we were even born, frankly, in terms of the Cold War and all of that. And to deal with that in real time requires people who are really intelligent, who think very deeply, who can recognize the stakes that are ahead of us. And I would say I actually. I always believed that JD was a person like that, you know, and, I mean, maybe he still is, but. But it almost doesn't matter. At this point. Right, because you had the chance to prove the ability to do differently. And if this is the best we can get get is some half assed ceasefire which barely lasts for two weeks. That's not necessarily a reflection on you, cuz it's mostly on Trump. But if that's the. If your best efforts can only result in this, then it's a failure. I mean, what else can you call it? I don't know, frankly, if any of that really exists in our current political system, which is what makes me so really like dire thinking about it in the future. But I do think, you know Tim's comments, I do think he's the most incisive political, political comedian really, who is currently working specifically on the surveillance state and others. It sends a chill because at the same, there are rival surveillance states in the world, Singapore and China. And call me unpatriotic, I would rather live there under their surveillance than ours. Cause ours is private companies, local contracts, oligarch, you know, whatever. Like selective enforcement of the rules. Here we simultaneously live in a surveillance state and a ship. At least over there it's nice, you know, and so there's no gum or whatever on the streets. The law is equally applied to everyone and the government has total control. Yes, I know that sounds authoritarian, but like here we don't even have real authoritarianism. It's like oligarchical authoritarianism.

Sagar Enjeti

We've got all like the worst aspects of authoritarianism, the upsides, right?

Krystal Ball

I saw somebody say it's like, you know, in Los Angeles, it's like you can shit in the streets and take Fentanyl, but if you jaywalk, you know, you will get a ticket from the Flock camera. And, and it's like, I'm only living in a world where both people are getting tickets, right? But we don't live in that. So like that's the blue example, the red example. I don't know, I'm trying to think

Sagar Enjeti

of, well, how about, I mean, the going back to the insider trading thing. Like you're the teleprompter operator, you're getting popped. If you're, you know, Jared Kushner or Steve Witkoff or whoever, or doing their deals and profiting off of their position there, that's fine and good. You're never going to face.

Krystal Ball

So that's a perfect white collar example, right? It's like, I want to live in a world where everybody gets equally prosecuted, but we don't have that. So it's like, can you really then, you know, want a surveillance system. So, yeah, I mean, things are bad. I just keep saying I'm like, things are really bad. I've been on a long, you know, kick reading about. I know you are, too. About Weimar.

Sagar Enjeti

Oh, yeah.

Krystal Ball

And you know, not just Weimar, but like all of the fractures in society. And maybe I'm reading too much into it, but it's so impossible not to look at our current moment and to see so much of the same. Same stuff. And you and I both know, like, how long it takes to crawl your way out of something.

Sagar Enjeti

I'll tell you what we're missing from the Weimar moment is a. I mean, we're not that the economy is great, but like a mass economic crisis. That's what we're missing. And you know, we may be. We may be headed in that direction. So just. Okay, hang tight for that.

Krystal Ball

Thank you guys so much for watching. Appreciate it. We'll see you all later.

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