7/22/26: Trump To Bomb Pickaxe Mt, Lebanon Civil War, GOP Screwed In Midterms

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Ryan Grim

Good morning and welcome to Breaking Points. As always, if you haven't signed up for the newsletter yet, gotta do it, right.

Krystal Ball

Yeah, the newsletter's great.

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Ryan Grim

The biggest news, of course. And we'll keep this for the end of the show, which is an old kind of radio trick to keep people listening. That'll be Emily's review of her first fish show. That's what everybody wants to hear. Any, any top line thoughts? Let's talk. What can we talk about at the end of the program?

Krystal Ball

Vibes were chill. The vibes were three words.

Ryan Grim

Vibes were definitely chill.

Krystal Ball

Seeing Ryan at a fish show is seeing Ryan at his absolute peak.

Ryan Grim

My happy place.

Krystal Ball

Yeah. And Ryan brought his kids, which was super fun, too.

Ryan Grim

The kids were, they were not so keen on it, but they got, you

Krystal Ball

know, slushies or whatever else.

Ryan Grim

It was an education.

Krystal Ball

It was, it was. But lots to get to. On the show today, Ryan, breaking news on the Iran front. Also, Trump striking a brand new deal with Saudi Arabia on it's, it's about nuclear proliferation in the Middle east, so obviously relevant to ongoing negotiations in Iran and strikes continuing as well. So much breakdown on that front just in the last few hours.

Ryan Grim

Exit was on Capitol Hill. Trump was in the Oval Office. So we've got a lot of sound to work our way through.

Krystal Ball

Yes. Begging for money on Capitol Hill. And I promise you he's going to get it.

Ryan Grim

Well, he will.

Krystal Ball

He's going to get it. It might be a little bit of a fight.

Ryan Grim

That will pay up.

Krystal Ball

Yeah. Also huge, huge developments in Lebanon that we are going to go through. Ryan Dropsite's been doing a lot of work on this.

Guest or Additional Commentator

Yeah.

Ryan Grim

Nobody's ever tried a civil war in Lebanon. So Trump's like, let's do that. Meanwhile, what could go wrong? Meanwhile, Yemen is threatening to close down and has in fact four Saudi ships shut down Bab El Mandeb Strait, which has been running a couple million barrels per Day of oil. So if you liked $4 gallon gas, you're going to love what's coming next.

Krystal Ball

Just, just, just you wait. It's only, only getting better. Midterm elections. We have some results to get to in Arizona, but also new polling showing exactly how bad the situation is for Republicans. New polling putting the House in the Senate. We won't, this is another radio trick, Ryan. We won't tell you who the polling is from, but trust us, significant that the polling is showing Democrats now face toss ups, face a toss up in the Senate and leading the House. So we'll go through those numbers with everyone. New tariffs on Canada. This is a pretty significant economic development. Lots of foreign policy and politics in the show, but a pretty significant economic development to go through. Jon Stewart and his thoughts on the dsa.

Ryan Grim

That'll be fun.

Krystal Ball

You don't want to hear this. Jon Stewart's thoughts on the dsa. Also, Republicans saying the Bolshevik takeover of the Democratic Party is in full swing. We might debate who the Bolsheviks are in this scenario. And Ryan, who's our guest, we got

Ryan Grim

Kyle Blomqvist who's running in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan against Jack Bergman, a Republican if he wins the Democratic primary. And we'll talk to him also about the Abdul Al Said and Haley Stevens race. And also he's another candidate who's really being propelled by his opposition to data centers.

Krystal Ball

Yeah, massive. You know, one thing that is the new data centers just it's not in the show. But it occurs to me there's the data centers and there's the flock cameras. And I feel like flock cameras are starting to be slotted into that same role as the data centers and being this like sneaky under the surface issue that unites people who are maybe on the left and on the right are just normal and hate what this stuff stands for and is starting to have political ramifications. So a quick thought. Not in the show, but much to much to discuss with.

Ryan Grim

Everyone likes their own flock camera. They just don't like the other people's flock cameras.

Krystal Ball

That's a good way to put it. Yeah. Flock cameras everywhere at the fish concert. I'm sure personal flock cameras in your pocket. All right, let's get to the show. Let's start now with this Wall Street Journal story. It is an exclusive to the Journal. They are saying Trump has approved a landmark nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia in a quote, big win for the kingdom. Reading a bit from the piece, they say President Trump has formally approved a landmark agreement with Saudi Arabia that will provide the country with a civilian nucle program and potentially open the door to uranium enrichment in the kingdom's territory, according to administration officials. This piece popped at 6am Ryan, quick reaction to this development?

Ryan Grim

Well, see, this is a theocracy that is responsible and so we're going to provide them with nuclear weapons. They haven't dismembered a Washington Post journalist for at least several years at this point. They haven't launched a reckless war. Well, actually, they've launched several reckless wars fairly recently. So never mind. They have. They're led by an impulsive authoritarian dictator who actually has very few checks on

Krystal Ball

him institutionally and happens to be very good friends with the President's son in law.

Ryan Grim

Yes, the friendship between Mohammed bin Salman and Jared Kushner and Trump was forged with billions of dollars of bribes.

Donald Trump

Yeah.

Ryan Grim

And so that makes it the kind that is able to be kind of endowed with a nuclear proliferation agreement in which we proliferate nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia, which, by the way, credibly involved in the attack on 9 11.

Krystal Ball

Yeah. Now they say the New Deal.

Ryan Grim

Fine, Right.

Krystal Ball

It gets better because this is going to last for 30 years. According to the Wall Street Journal, the New Deal, which would last 30 years, is estimated to be worth tens of billions of dollars. It is designed to give American companies a central role in Saudi Arabia's nuclear infrastructure while shutting out other foreign competitors. The Journal says a key provision of the new accord would have American companies build a uranium enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia If a joint U.S. saudi study determines such a step would be warranted. So very Trumpian. Kushnerian, if that's a word, to bring in the American companies and make the deal worth tens of billions of dollars for apparently at least 30 years in Saudi Arabia.

Ryan Grim

Just so happy for everybody involved. Meanwhile, Trump is moving forward with his attacks on Iran. Overnight, there were continued, continued American airstrikes across Iran. And he's claiming that he's going to attack Pickaxe Mountain. If you're confused about where this Pickaxe Mountain is coming from, all of a sudden it's part of the Natanz nuclear complex. Why is he calling it Pickaxe? Well, because you're not an idiot and you heard it. You were like, wait a minute, Natanz, didn't we obliterate that in the 12 Day War last year? Yeah, we were told we obliterated it. So if we're going to attack it again, we have to rename it so that people don't realize we're attacking the same thing. So there's another like, hole in the mountain, like a mile away or half a mile away from what we previously bombed.

Krystal Ball

We call it Pickaxe Mountain.

Ryan Grim

Pickaxe Mountain. That's what they. Trump says he's going to get now. A1.

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Do you believe that Iran has moved nuclear centrifuges into Pickaxe Mountain? And when you say we're not done yet, what is left to finish?

Donald Trump

Well, I think that they, they may have. We don't have it on record. All we do is read the fake news. You know, we see the news is so wrong so many times. So, you know, maybe, maybe this one they have. Right. But it's okay. It doesn't mean anything unless they have the material. You're talking about the centrifuges. Yeah, it doesn't mean anything unless they have the material they don't have. We follow the material. That's where the action is. And we'll be hitting that area very probably pretty soon. And there's not, not a thing they can do about it. You know, normally I wouldn't say that. If I thought they could do something about it, I would never say that. But we'll be hitting that area pretty soon and very heavily.

Ryan Grim

So there's Trump saying that, okay, maybe they did move the centrifuges, but what good is a centrifuge if you don't have highly enriched uranium to spin in it? He makes a very good point. So the Israeli intelligence, which is pointing towards Pickaxe Mountain, comes out. They're like, oh, update, by the way, we forgot to tell you that also, we can put up a 2 here. Israeli intelligence concludes that, yes, they also moved their enriched stockpile there, too. That's according to Israeli intelligence. I think this sounds totally on the up and up. And you could take this to the bank, right?

Krystal Ball

Yeah, I mean, it seemed like that is really intelligence. It's always interesting to go back and anatomize how something goes through the media. Like the life story. Fake news is Trump piece of intelligence as it makes its way through the media. And it does seem like that really was the genesis of now everybody talking about Pickaxe Mountain, including, of course, the President of the United States. Also worth bringing back in the Saudi nuclear deal we were just talking about. Further in the Journal article, you have a quote here from the executive director of the Non Proliferation Policy Education center, who says, wither goes Saudi Arabia, so goes the uae, Turkey and Egypt. The idea that this will have a happy ending is delusional. And so just to bring it all together with nuclear Proliferation. This is the Trump administration now going after pickaxe mountain while cutting deals with the Saudis on nuclear proliferation.

Ryan Grim

Yeah. And when it comes to things that Trump has done, consistently believed in for many decades, tariffs are one of them. Thinking that Japan is ripping us off is another. He just flipped that to China. Like the 90s being against nuclear proliferation is one of them. Like if you go back to his interviews from the 80s, he's, he's been concerned about nuclear power.

Krystal Ball

Yes.

Ryan Grim

Nuclear weapons and their proliferation for decades. Clearly he has a higher value in life and that is corruption. And so he's willing like he doesn't think about it. There are very few things he actually believes in and nuclear proliferation being one of them. But he doesn't believe in it so much that he's not going to just discard it for a couple billion dollars.

Krystal Ball

He's not even conditioning this on normalized relationships between or a normalized relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel. According to the Journal report.

Ryan Grim

That used to be one of the hold ups there.

Krystal Ball

Yeah.

Ryan Grim

He's recognizing that Israel's just not going to do it.

Krystal Ball

He also said on Truth Social, this is our next element. We can pop up on the screen. Enough is enough. No more talks because they just lie. It's time to all caps finish the job. So what that is going to look like? Still a bit unclear. If we move on to a 3B. What you're seeing here, according to dropsite analysis, is basically US striking Iran for the 11th straight night overnight as air defense were activated over at Tehran. Explosions were reported across Iran overnight in 11th consecutive night of US attacks with air defenses activating over Tehran for the first time in the current round of escalation. That's according to Al Jazeera in Tehran. The strikes hit a military base in Tabriz, that's in the northwest of Iran for a second straight day. And then explosions were reported in three different cities and one overlooking the Strait of Hormuz. US CENTCOM said it targeted Iran's maritime capabilities, drone facilities and aircraft hangars to describing the campaign as an effort to degrade Tehran's ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. And then the IRGC vowed to keep operating to punish, quote, the aggressor. And Iran's rhetoric escalating significantly. Ryan, in recent days as well. If that's even possible for escalation at this point. But clearly there's always room.

Ryan Grim

Yes. And so if you remember, was it last week we discussed the US Strike on a dormitory housing conscripts in Iran Iran vowed to retaliate for that because like we were saying at the time, okay, you're in the military, Plausibly, that's a military target. But there's something unspoken that just like killing people in their sleep is just. It's not gentlemanly, maybe we could say. And so Iran vowed at the time, okay, we're going to respond. And so they had been. Iran up until now had mostly been targeting military infrastructure, the early warning satellite systems, all of our multibillion dollar pieces of what are now smoldering junk that we had lying around the Gulf. They now appear to have moved to targeting actual service members. And so we can actually put up roll a 3C. This is footage that was posted from a base in Jordan by a service member. You can hear the. The warnings coming from the sirens, and everybody just kind of scrambling to get to the safest place that they can before the ballistic missiles hit. Which you now have much less time to do this because they have hit so many of the early warning radar sites. And so the missiles are getting much closer. In some cases, you're seeing video of strikes impacting without even hearing the sirens. Or in Kuwait, you might hear the siren for, you know, eight seconds, and then a building has hit nearby. Or Bahrain, you might. You're unlikely to get even eight seconds. And we can add in post. This is something I put up on Twitter last night of sorts. Sent to me two photos of the results of the attack on Tower 22, which is a base in Jordan. And there you can see that the dorms were just completely annihilated. I was told that there were no fatalities, but a significant number of traumatic brain injuries as a result of this attack. And they've evacuated this quite influential and at one time powerful base as a result of them being unable to fend off drone and ballistic missile attacks. It's also told that that they are shifting from the shahed 236s down to like 231, basically. The point being that they're sending smaller drones, which are harder, as you can imagine, to shoot out of the sky. So the bigger ones obviously pack a bigger punch and have a longer range, but the smaller ones are, you know, much more able to kind of weave their way through American air defenses.

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This is Becca and Tanya from Scrubbing in with Becca Tilly and Tanya Rad

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Oh, so we're doing that today.

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Krystal Ball

Hey, it's Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile.

Ryan Grim

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Ryan Grim

President Trump has found the guy responsible for all of this. It's the Jordanian air defense operators.

Krystal Ball

You're really Sherlock Holmes.

Ryan Grim

He did. He, he figured this out. So demerits to that guy. So let's go to a four.

Donald Trump

They did slip something through in Jordan. And if we had other operators, you know, would have not happened, unfortunately. But we, because we have the best equipment in the world, you know, we've stopped almost everything. But when you let other people do your job with the United States, we let other people do the job, and sometimes it doesn't work out so well.

Ryan Grim

So, yeah, Trump never fails. He can only be failed.

Krystal Ball

He said they slipped something through in Jordan. Three American soldiers died in Jordan, 100 wounded. Isabella Gonzalez, Tyler Feehan and Angel Ramparsad, in addition to another death that occurred, I think it was in Iraq over the weekend. That's what slipping something through in Jordan is.

Guest or Additional Commentator

Right.

Ryan Grim

And that's right. And so that's three people who would be alive if Trump had just stuck with the mou.

Krystal Ball

Yeah.

Ryan Grim

Plus the fourth in Iraq, who was apparently nearby when they were trying to detonate an unexploded drone and was killed in the explosion. Plus then we're talking about at least 100 casualties. Some of them probably be suffering from the results of it for the rest of their lives. There's a lot of complaints that the medical attention they're getting is extremely substandard, even when they get flown to Germany, which Tammy Baldwin was bringing this up in Senate yesterday. It's like, we've been doing this for 25, 30 years. How do you not have better medical care for people who are paying the price here for this absolute folly? Meanwhile, Bezalel Smotrich thinks this is, in fact, actually the best of all worlds. Let's put up a five. Rather startling remark from Smotrich, reported by Amit Segal, who's very close to Benjamin Netanyahu. Finance Minister Smotrich, after the lengthy security discussion last night, he says, quote, the state of Israel has no interest in joining the contained confrontation between Iran and the United States. The current situation is the best one for us. Rather crass, I think, after four American service members are killed and Iran continues to obliterate all of the military infrastructure that we've built up in the Gulf to protect Israel, by the way, like we built it to protect Israel. But as we said at the top of the program, the American warplanes continue to strike Iran. So that's what Smochic means. Like, he's completely content with that. And Israel can use its time to continue to destroy villages in Lebanon and continue to launch daily attacks in Gaza, despite having agreed to a ceasefire and continue to try to push their imaginary yellow line deeper and deeper into Gaza. And luckily for Smotrich, according to FOX news. This FOX News guest, you know, he might get the best of all Worlds for another 20 years or so. Let's roll a six. How much longer do you expect this to go on? And do you think munitions should be

News Reporter or Analyst

a limitation at this point?

Donald Trump

What do you hear?

News Reporter or Analyst

No, I don't think, you know, the Pentagon has done a great job of restocking the munitions. I don't think that's an issue at all. But I can, I do expect that we're going to be there a long time. You know, Operation Northern Southern Watch went on for, you know, almost 20 years, I think. So I think this is going to be something similar. We're going to have to stay there. Those guys aren't going to change their behavior. We have to adapt. And I think, you know, we're going to have to get the Gulf states and those that rely on the oil coming from the Gulf states to help pay for this.

Ryan Grim

Curious your take on this because I thought that was an extra revealing remark. He's talking about Operation Northern Watch there, which is a reference to how in the 1990s the US had a no fly zone over Iraq and would just bomb it like once or twice a week and sanctioned it to death. In the 70s and 80s, Iraq was the wealthiest country in the Middle East. It was very powerful. And then in 1991 there was this, what seemed to be a deliberate miscommunication between the US And Iraq in which we greenlit them going into Kuwait. We then launched the first Gulf War. And after that, Israel considered Iraq to be its greatest geostrategic threat in the region. Saddam Hussein was very sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. And so we spent the 90s just bombing the hell out of Iraq and sanctioning them. And then once it was sufficiently weakened in 2003, we went in and we toppled it. And so what he's suggesting there is that that should be the roadmap for Iran, that we just spend 10 years just like bombing it once or twice a week and then maybe 20, 35 we can send some troops in there and just push over what's left of it.

Krystal Ball

Well, and as always, it's worth popping the general's name anytime you see a talking head on FOX News that's very excited, Fox News, cnn, msnbc. Honestly, that's seems to be analyzing a war as a never ending one that might involve years of conflict.

Ryan Grim

Who does he work for? Let's hear it.

Krystal Ball

Oh, he's a founder of his own AI company that happens to have contracts with the Pentagon and it's a data center. It's a micro data center company. It's called Semper Axios. Did a whole write up of his company back in 2021. He's also a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, which of course gets a significant amount of money from defense contractors. So no surprise to hear Spalding thinking this just might take a long time,

Ryan Grim

just pulling himself up by his bootstraps. Well, see, hard work rewarded.

Krystal Ball

Now, Secretary Hegsa, speaking of money from or for the Department of War, Secretary Hegseth was on Capitol Hill yesterday asking for what was it right, like 70 billion more dollars. He said the war.

Ryan Grim

67 billion I think he wants.

Krystal Ball

Right, yeah. And he said the war so far,

Ryan Grim

very precise amount for an organization that doesn't know how to count its money every year.

Krystal Ball

The price tag for the Iran war, according to testimony from Dan Cain and Pete Hegseth yesterday, is now up to 37 and a half billion. How do they know that defied?

Ryan Grim

They can't. They don't know how to do an audit. How do they even know they're out of money?

Krystal Ball

37 and a half.

Ryan Grim

They're like, we're out of money. Like, how do you know you're out of money?

Krystal Ball

Not 37.

Ryan Grim

There's money somewhere.

Krystal Ball

Check out of the couch. Well, anyway, he was confronted by Senator John Ossoff. Let's take a look here at a seven.

Ryan Grim

You stated on March 8, day nine of the war on 60 Minutes, you assured the American people of Iranian surrender. Does that remain your prediction?

News Reporter or Analyst

Ultimately, Iran will never have a nuclear weapon to threaten the United States of America. That has been the objective and it remains so.

Ryan Grim

So just to review, you will not answer whether your statement made on the 14th day of the war that Iran's military had been, quote, destroyed and made combat ineffective was a truthful statement to the American people. As you sit here and ask for tens, billions more for the senators time

News Reporter or Analyst

has had a historic and effective military campaign against the largest state sponsor of terror.

Ryan Grim

Won't answer the question.

Krystal Ball

Meanwhile, split screen here on Capitol Hill, Mike Johnson, Speaker Mike Johnson, who's looking at potentially becoming minority leader Mike Johnson is a little bit more concerned about the timeline of the war. Let's take a listen.

Guest or Additional Commentator

The administration is working very hard. The commander in chief and the and the whole Department of War, they're working very hard to bring this to a resolution. There's a lot of discussions about how that will be done. We're all closely watching those developments. Of course, I don't think an AUMF is In order right now. I think we need to bring this to a resolution. Look, I think it's important for all of our international partners, is my personal view, to have a role in this. I mean, we've got all of our allied nations through NATO, we've got the Arab countries over there, the Gulf states that are in closest proximity to Iran. Iran is now fired on all of its neighbors, and they're turning everybody in the world into an enemy. And I think this is an important moment of history for all of the world community to decide how they want to handle this. It shouldn't just be America's obligation. My view is that everybody needs to play a role, so we'll see how that develops. I think we have to allow the space to do that. And I know that this administration is working around the clock to resolve that in a way so that we don't suffer any more troop losses. This is a great tragedy. It shouldn't happen. But it is a very important, very important objective that I believe we've achieved to ensure that the largest sponsor of terrorism does not have a nuclear weapon. That would be a disaster for everybody, and everybody around the world understands that. Now we got to wrap it up.

Krystal Ball

Subtle, but you probably caught at the end there him saying, we need to wrap it up. There's no need for an AUMF specific to this Iran war.

Ryan Grim

Better to resolve it, because we just

Krystal Ball

gotta wrap it up, Ryan. And you know what? Maybe I agree with that. At this point, if we don't need to have an aumf, because you guys would rather just wrap it up, by all means, wrap it up.

Ryan Grim

Also, they've already voted. They passed a war powers resolution ending the war.

Krystal Ball

Amazing.

Ryan Grim

Congress did that.

Krystal Ball

What? Great work.

Ryan Grim

Yeah. So, yeah, wrap it up.

Krystal Ball

Yeah.

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Becca and Tanya (Scrubbing In Podcast Hosts)

This is Becca and Tanya from Scrubbing in with Becca Tilly and Tanya Rad.

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Becca, can I ask you a question? How do I convince myself I need something before I buy it?

Donald Trump

It.

Becca and Tanya (Scrubbing In Podcast Hosts)

Oh, so we're doing that today?

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Well, I'll be shopping online and suddenly I'm like, well technically this counts as self care.

Becca and Tanya (Scrubbing In Podcast Hosts)

You're definitely not alone there.

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That's the goal, right? Having tools that make your money work with you.

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Ryan Grim

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Ryan Grim

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Krystal Ball

All right, well, Ryan, let's talk now about Lebanon. Also crucial to this entire conversation about the negotiations in Iraq, Trump was saying yesterday that, but he was going back and forth on whether or not he's negotiating with Iran. He would be willing to Senator Secretary Rubio in the same kind of vein, fluctuating on whether or not they're willing to talk publicly, privately, all of that. So let's move over to Lebanon because Donald Trump was with the president of Lebanon yesterday in the White House.

Ryan Grim

Yeah. And so Trina Parsi had flagged. And you can put this element up on the screen, this Wall Street Journal article that floats the various ways that the US Is exploring the idea of basically sparking a civil war inside of Lebanon. And I wanted to just read a little bit from this Wall Street Journal article because I think just hearing how the mainstream media writes about it, you as A normal person will be able to immediately spot all of the problems with this proposal. So the Journal writes, israel has battered the Lebanese militia Hezbollah over two years of fighting. Many Lebanese are turning against the militant group. And there's growing consensus in Beirut that Hezbollah must finally be forced to give up its weapons. But American, Israeli and Lebanese officials are finding there are no easy options to disarm a U.S. designated terrorist group that is embedded in society and bound to its cause with religious zeal. Complicating matters is Israel's invasion of Lebanon and its continuing occupation of swaths of the country's south, creating a point of tension with Beirut just when the two countries leaders are aligned on disarming Hezbollah. And then they go on to say the dilemma has opened the way for once. Unthinkable ideas pushing ahead. US Israeli and Lebanese officials are pushing ahead with a plan to train and vet elite units of the Lebanese armed forces. The idea here, they will train these Lebanese armed forces and then Israel will then kind of, after training them, turn over the occupation of southern Lebanon to them. But I just love this delightful line in here. Complicating matters is Israel's invasion of Lebanon.

Krystal Ball

Unbelievable.

Ryan Grim

Small matter, mere complexity does make it a little extra.

Krystal Ball

A wrinkle.

Ryan Grim

We'll agree with that. The peace then goes on to kind of try to disentangle this complexity which, which comes primarily from, well, lots of different elements, but the fact that Hezbollah is a key element of the Lebanese military. There are Hezbollah sympathetic and Hezbollah linked people who make up significant swaths of the Lebanese armed forces. And so anytime the Lebanese armed forces try to move against Hezbollah, Hezbollah gets tipped off immediately because they are in there because they are Lebanese. Complicating matters, another wrinkle. Yeah. So then they go on to say, well, maybe we can get Alshara to, you know, like, they don't even say they're gonna get Al Shara, who's the Syrian president, to go to war against Hezbollah. What the Journal is suggesting here there is that they'll get Al Shar to cut off the supply lines between Iran and Hezbollah. That would be a plausible thing that you could do and is a reason that Israel wanted to overthrow Assad and replace him with Al Shara. The problem is Israel couldn't help itself. And as soon as Al Shara took over, Israel, through a series of airstrikes, obliterated the entire national security infrastructure available to Al Shara blew up every truck, every tank, every plane, everything capable of firing a shell. And so now Israel's saying, oh, hey, can you Go ahead and use your state apparatus to intercept the smuggling that is going on between Iran and Hezbollah. And Alshara's like, yeah, about our state apparatus, you may recall or may not recall, you destroyed it all.

Krystal Ball

Yeah.

Ryan Grim

So sorry, we can't. So then you could build them back up. But that would create state capacity on the part of Syria. Israel has said that their strategic assessment is that state capacity itself is a threat to Israel. They don't care if a country is threatening them. If they have the capacity to threaten them, they consider that a geostrategic vulnerability. So they want to degrade every state near them to the point where they don't even have the capacity to think about challenging Israel. So they want want Syria to have the state capacity to intercept smuggling routes, but they don't want Syria to have any state capacity because then that could be used to challenge Israel's occupation of the Golan Heights and increasing occupation further and further north towards Damascus. So the entire idea here is completely convoluted. Unless all they want is just a giant civil war to go on for decades, then maybe they could get that if you send in enough weapons and train enough, quote, unquote, Lebanese special forces or elite units.

Krystal Ball

It put the Lebanese president in a rather interesting position yesterday as he was meeting President Trump at the White House. Let's take a listen to a flavor of their conversation in front of reporters.

Donald Trump

B2 Mr. President, it's an honor having you. Thank you very much.

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Thank you.

Donald Trump

Thank you.

Ryan Grim

I've been looking forward to this visit

Krystal Ball

for a long time.

Donald Trump

Thank you very much.

Ryan Grim

Meeting such a great president like yourself,

Donald Trump

that's a very nice thing. See, he knows how to get to me. He can have anything now.

Ryan Grim

He can have anything.

Donald Trump

Would you like to say to them?

Krystal Ball

Well, the meeting finished and then Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that after it he says, I am hereby directing my administration to allow all US Airline carriers to fly directly to Lebanon so that Americans can easily fly. Isn't this beautiful land? Hopefully other countries will do the same. Enjoy. President Donald J. Trump. Now, Ryan, I'd love to go to Lebanon. I'm not sure now's the time.

Ryan Grim

A little weekend.

Krystal Ball

Especially in the context you just laid out about the ambitions for potentially a civil war.

Ryan Grim

We got friends there. We'll make sure you're taken care of there. It'll be fine. At first I read that as all airlines will go directly to Lebanon, every single one.

Krystal Ball

You're not going to Detroit anymore.

Ryan Grim

Know everyone's going to Lebanon. There haven't been direct flights from the US to Beirut since, I think 1985, when there was a Hezbollah linked. I think it was Hezbollah linked. I don't know enough about it to confirm that, but hijacking, I think a plane that was flying from like Rome to Athens or something got hijacked and flown to. Flown to Beirut. And Reagan was like, okay. Reagan had already taken all the Marines out. And I was like, okay, no more. No more flights either. But, yeah. So Trump and Oun are clearly making. Forming a bond. What that's going to, what that does

Krystal Ball

politically to Lebanon is an interesting question.

Ryan Grim

Yeah.

Krystal Ball

Like to the competing factions for power in Lebanon.

Ryan Grim

Yeah. Meanwhile, the agreement that Trump has with the Houthis, interestingly remains in place. The Houthis are, over the last couple of days, announced, announced that they actually would start with this. You can put up B6. They announced that any ships docking in Saudi, Saudi ports or any Saudi flagged ships are now banned from going through the Bab El Mandeb Strait, which is the way that oil has been basically flowing. You know, it would go across a pipeline to a Saudi port and then through the Red Sea south over to Asia. What it has to do now is go up through the Mediterranean if it gets struck at all. If you want to have some fun, you can pause that video and read the actual Houthi statements. They're all so over the top, kind of crazy.

Krystal Ball

Sounds right.

Ryan Grim

The A B5, some Saudi tankers, you can put this up, have already made U turns immediately after this warning because they have seen that the Yemen forces there have the ability to carry those strikes out. But interestingly, the US And Yemen still have a ceasefire in place because it's a bilateral ceasefire. It doesn't involve anybody else. It's just between us and them. And Trump observed that it's still in place, but threatened that if it falls apart, he'll quote, unquote, take care of it. Let's listen to Trump in the Oval Office. This is before level of concern of a blockade of the Red Sea by the Houthi rebels, opening up another front in the war.

Donald Trump

What happens so far it hasn't happened, might happen, but we take care of things. If something like that happens, we take care of it. You know, we've done that with the Houthis before and we haven't heard from them in a while since we did what we did originally with about 45 days of very powerful action we took against the Houthis. And we've had no problem with the Houthis. They've had no problem with us for a long period of time, including during this conflict. I think that if there is something like that, we'll just have to take care of business.

Ryan Grim

Also, that Oval Office, by the way. I just can't get over it.

Krystal Ball

I know. It's really. It's something. Have you seen the outside of the White House? Oh, like high restaurant chic, just cursive. It's like a resort. It's like a golf resort. It's like one of his golf resorts. I don't know why we're on this tangent right now, but it's truly like the Oval Office in gold cursive outside. So you know when you're on a big resort campus.

Ryan Grim

Right.

Krystal Ball

That you have entered the. The rec room, you have entered the restaurant. That's what it looks like. It's egregious.

Ryan Grim

Just. Absolutely.

Krystal Ball

And then if you want a little laugh, you just turn over and you see on the wall the auto pen under Joe Biden's name.

Ryan Grim

The actual auto pen.

Becca and Tanya (Scrubbing In Podcast Hosts)

Yeah.

Krystal Ball

No, he is a picture of the auto pen. Instead of Joe Biden's portrait is all the other presidential portraits. And for Joe Biden, it's a picture of an auto pen. It's actually real. It is actually real. Ken confirmed. Have seen it with my own eyes.

Ryan Grim

Amazing.

Krystal Ball

Yeah, it's something. But truly the region in chaos right now. But don't you worry. Donald Trump is at the helm.

Ryan Grim

Yeah. And so this is. Yeah. If Saudi Arabia is crimped from exporting its several million barrels per day through the Red Sea, the ability of the U.S. like, we're still drawing down our strategic petroleum reserve.

Krystal Ball

Like, Yep.

Ryan Grim

The latest we heard from our government experts, like, you know what, Maybe we can go a little bit lower on the petroleum reserve than we thought we could before. So we can. And as somebody pointed out, like, the US Is just basically driving with the light on at this point. The gas light is on, and we're like, this is fine. Next exit, 22 miles. Yeah, we can make this.

Krystal Ball

We do that with basically all of our policy right now. There's the gas, there's the debt. We're just. We can keep making it. Futures down to your point, basically, across the board. Except for oil this morning as we record. And that probably explains what we're about to discuss in terms of the midterm election polling.

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Krystal Ball

Well, amidst this conversation at the White House with the head of Lebanon yesterday, Donald Trump got a question about the midterms. Here's what he said.

Ryan Grim

Do you believe that Iran is trying to impact the midterm elections by threatening

Krystal Ball

the street of hormones?

Donald Trump

They won't have any impact on me. I'm just going to do the right thing. I don't view it as you're having an election in a period of time. You know, everyone says, oh, I'm doing something before, no, the election. I can't think about that having to do with this. I think people are very impressed. I mean, we took over Venezuela. We now have a great relationship with Venezuela. We went to war with Venezuela and the war ended in one day.

Krystal Ball

What he said there was it won't affect me. Which is exactly what is getting so deep under the skin of Republican operatives around the country and certainly Here in Washington, D.C. yesterday, Fox News rolled out updated power rankings for the House and the Senate that spelled disaster for Republicans. Let's go ahead and roll first here. The Senate power rankings. Take a listen to Bill Mulligian.

News Reporter or Analyst

Beginning with the Senate forecast, Fox News is projecting that control of the Senate is essentially just a toss up right now with the balance of power likely coming down to Senate seats in four states that are all considered considered coin flips. Right now those four states are colored in yellow. Fox News projects that Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Maine all have Senate races that are all toss ups. And these are the matchups that will likely end up determining control of the Senate. Now Republicans are eyeing a handful of potential Senate pickups in Georgia, New Hampshire and Michigan, all of which Fox News power rankings project as leaning Democrat, while Democrats think they can flip Texas, which obviously leans Republican.

Krystal Ball

So a couple of takeaways here. Not at all surprising if you've been following the developments. But they have Michigan leaning Dem. They have North Carolina leaning Dem. I think that's abundantly clear from the polling that North Carolina, as of right now at least, unless there's some black swan event, will likely be on election Day. Leaning Dem. Ohio listed as a toss up. Alaska listed as a toss up. Ohio particularly interesting, very big struggle for Republicans. They didn't expect to have such a significant struggle in Ohio at this point. But that's exactly what happens when coming back. Yeah, absolutely. It's exactly what happens when you get into an unpopular warshirt. Brown is up in the real clear Politics average by 0.6 at this point. Polling spin kind of clustered together in either direction. But that's just a disaster for Republicans at this point.

Ryan Grim

I and I noticed, and you probably did too since you guys watch this show, that they didn't put Nebraska on that list?

Krystal Ball

Yeah.

Ryan Grim

If you look closely at it, they have it as a likely. So pretty dark red Republican. I would rate Nebraska as now it's not a Democrat, it's an independent who's running Dan Osborne. I'd rate Nebraska as more likely to flip than Texas.

Krystal Ball

I agree with that. He's running at about 30% according to real Clear Politics right now. But that can change.

Ryan Grim

30% likelihood.

Krystal Ball

You mean 30% in the. Let's see what we have here. Looks like this is actually Polymarket. So he's real good Politics integrates Polymarket now. Yes. So they have him at a 30% odd in polymarket.

Ryan Grim

That's higher than I would give Talarico.

Krystal Ball

Agree completely.

Ryan Grim

What do they give Talarico?

Krystal Ball

That's a good question.

Ryan Grim

Not that we should be promoting this garbage.

Krystal Ball

Yeah, I know. I thought it was going to be the poll and I pulled it up and it was Polymarket. It looks like talarico is at 44. Time to get in on this one.

Ryan Grim

But yeah. So maybe a Real Clear Politics is selling out to the Poly Market. To Poly Market here. I'm sure they're not doing that for free. That's annoying. But in any event, if this war continues, I think that it gives Talarico a better chance, but also gives Dan Osborne in Nebraska a better chance because.

Krystal Ball

Oh, Turek in Iowa as well.

Ryan Grim

His state is just getting wrecked. Yeah, Turek could plausibly win.

Krystal Ball

He's up in the latest Fox News poll. They had him plus four.

Ryan Grim

Iowa has been hit harder by Trump than basically any other state. The tariffs, the cattle stuff, the soybean stuff, like he's just killing them all

Krystal Ball

over the place, which in the first term you would see a lot of sites, you'd see a lot of patience or you'd hear a lot of patience, particularly from Trump friendly farmers in Trump's first administration because they understood there needed to be. I think everybody understands there needs to be some type of rejiggering. But no question that in the second administration, as Trump has been much more ad hoc, that patience has likely worn thinner in many communities around Iowa. So on the House side, Maine. Yeah. And Maine could, I mean, what do you think of Maine right now? Because Troy Jackson was up in a recent poll over Susan Collins.

Ryan Grim

Yeah. Troy Jackson doesn't have the same Riz, obviously, as Platner, to say the least. But for better or worse, but he's, he's a very credible, progressive, populist, working class guy. A lot of people in Maine don't know who he is. And so that'll give.

Krystal Ball

That could be a good thing for Democrats.

Ryan Grim

Could go both ways. Susan Collins is gonna spend $100 million defining him as God only knows what. Who knows what they'll try to unearth about him. But he's a very, very serious candidate and I think he's probably more likely to win than not. And it doesn't help Susan Collins for Trump to continue this war for another deep into the fall.

Krystal Ball

This is a brutal one ahead. Let's take a look at the House now. This is FOX News House power Rankings now projecting that Democrats will take the House. And by the way, before we leave the Senate, it just occurs to me about a year ago here in Washington, talk in GOP circles was bas we got the Senate, don't worry about this. The House, we might lose a little bit in the House. We might have a slim minority. There might be a little bit of a margin, a small margin between us and the Democrats. We might go back into the minority, but the Senate will almost certainly be okay. That's what we're getting from the kind of stages of Republican politics here in Washington a year ago. Now, not only is that a toss up, but of course the House is looking worse and worse for Republicans. Let's roll new Fox News polling again or new Fox News projections.

News Reporter or Analyst

As for the House, Fox News projects that Democrats have the lead to flip control of the House back to blue and they're in better shape than Republicans there. Right now there are 16 house seats projected as toss ups that will end up deciding control though Republican redistricting wins could end up blunting some of the losses that the GOP was potentially facing. The Fox News power rankings also show as of right now, voters prefer Democrats Democrats on the generic ballot against Republicans by about 4%. That's a flip from 2024 when Republicans led that by 1%. So you're looking at about a 5 point swing towards Democrats since the 2024 race.

Krystal Ball

Now that's interesting, Ryan, because actually Democrats probably should have an even bigger lead in these House races. And Harry Anton on CNN recently was showing differences in how Democrats are running now in the generic congressional ballot versus 2006, 2006 and 2018, both blue wave 2018, basically blue tsunami years. And they actually don't have as big of a lead in the generic congressional ballot right now as they did at the same points in time 2006 and 2018. So those numbers, I mean 16 toss up races, Dems right now with I think it was a 3 margin plus 3 margin in the Fox News power rankings. If they pick up all 16 toss ups, all 10 toss ups, that that's getting in the healthier direction. But it's still going to be a pretty slim majority for them. Either way, we're looking at probably more deadlock.

Ryan Grim

Yeah. My sense, I guess, and this is not a novel thought, is that just the increasing polarization of the country as more people just identify as either a Democrat or a Republican or they call themselves an Independent, but they always vote Democrat or Republican.

Donald Trump

Yep.

Ryan Grim

As that phenomenon continues to kind of calcify or coagulate, you're just going to have, there's less room for a wave. Like it's a wave instead of washing up on sand, it's washing up on granite.

Krystal Ball

To your point, in January, Gallup found a record number of people in the United States identifying as political of political independence. That's up to 45% and it's been a very steep increase.

Ryan Grim

They say that, but they're less independent in their behavior.

Krystal Ball

They're people who are ideological but not necessarily partisan. They just tend to swing one direction or the other. But that's towards populist candidates in a lot of cases. I think that's probably where you see the increase growing up, especially going up, especially with Trump and Bernie Sanders, that somebody who's a Sanders or Trump voter might think of themselves as independent but find themselves reliably voting in one direction over the other.

Ryan Grim

Yeah, yeah, exactly. And so no matter what happens, you're going to have just less of a movement. Plus with the redistricting, you really take off the board a lot of races that might otherwise be in play with the redistricting.

Krystal Ball

Republicans have had so much swagger in the last couple of months about how they're going to be just fine in the House of Representatives. And again here you have Fox News projections putting them like they think they

Ryan Grim

might hold it at this point. That's what they're pretty confident.

Krystal Ball

They had a newfound pep in their step after the redistricting on the Supreme Court decision.

Ryan Grim

But it's, I mean, Democrats have no money.

Krystal Ball

Yeah. They're being outspent for sure. There was just a report in Playbook this morning about Democrats frustrated over their spending disadvantage.

Ryan Grim

Trump, like the entire DCCC is like $5 and Haley Stevens has like $70 million being spent for her and she's going to probably lose.

Krystal Ball

She's going to lose the D trip.

Ryan Grim

Yeah.

Krystal Ball

Like, yes, Trump ran the table in Arizona last night. He got Andy Biggs his endorsement, also got Karen Taylor Robson and It's looking like some interesting races for the fall down there. What else happened in Arizona last night? Any interesting DSA stuff, populist, STEM stuff?

Ryan Grim

Yes. The first District, what's his name, Amish Shah, was had like two or three million dollars spent against him basically by AIPAC front groups and the DCCC supported his opponent. And so it's kind of like an APAC DCCC alliance. And Shaw won and so he'll go to the general. Then you had in the fourth District, Kai Newkirk, who we had on the program, spent almost no money and ran against Greg Stanton, a top kind of pro business new Democrat, and ended up with I think 30, 30 plus 35% or so. But so not, not terribly close. But he got a much bigger chunk than an incumbent would like to see from somebody who spent like 100 grand or something.

News Reporter or Analyst

Wow.

Krystal Ball

Yeah.

Ryan Grim

And nobody voted like the, the like if you look at the, the actual turnout. Yeah. Here. So in the first district you've got Amish Shah won 40% of the vote with 26,000 votes and beat the DCCC candidate. So like total of 60,000 people voting.

Guest or Additional Commentator

It's.

Ryan Grim

Arizona doesn't have the most robust kind of Democratic primary participation.

Krystal Ball

We could say yes. All right. And finally, I just wanted to note since we mentioned those Gallup numbers, record

Ryan Grim

high, 50,000 voted in the 4th district.

Krystal Ball

Geez. Wow. That record high of people identifying as independents. Just an interesting note on that. If you go back and you look at Gallup's data, that starts to spike at a very particular time. And it's 2008, so tells you about the direction our politics have gone since.

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