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The NASDAQ markets out in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Rates on the rise, yields on US Treasuries spiking as one Fed official raises the specter of potential rate hikes. The impact it is having on markets coming up and oil prices jumping as President Trump reinstates a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. What it means for the rest of the energy complex and how to play the moves. Plus Apple hitting a new record, why one of our traders is banking on Brazil and Starbucks stealth rally, why the coffee chain is percolating for 52 week highs and what is next is Brian Nicholas Cycles turnaround plan seems to be taking hold. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live in studio. Be at the Nasdaq on the desk tonight. Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Gaia Dami and Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies. Welcome to you Katie. And we start off with that great rate rally and some hawkish comments out of the Fed. The yield on 10 year treasury notes now trading near the highest since the Iran war started the two year at levels not seen since February of last year. The latest move coming after Fed Governor Chris Waller raised concerns over inflation, saying President persistent pricing pressure could require tighter monetary policy in the near term. We'll get new reads on CPI and PPI this week with some relief expected to come from lower oil prices. But if the recent spike in oil turns things back around, are rate hikes in our future? Guy, what do you think?

D

I know about rate hikes in the future. I think they're probably on their hands but the market's going to do it for them and I think that's something we're talking about. It's great to have Tim back. He will opine. But you look what's going on global, you look what's going on here. The fact that the TLT is at levels, we've been basically sideways for the last three years around these levels suggests to me there's another leg lower, which means there's a leg higher in yields and yields are not going higher for the right reasons. So I think it's right that at least for today, the market was concerned.

E

Great to be back. You know, it's almost as if Waller knew what that CPI number was. When I, when I heard Waller's speech, it sounds like a guy I don't know does the Fed. No, I don't. You know, I don't want to know what they do. I will tell you that he made it clear and I'm quoting him, we could be at a crossroads in policy. It certainly makes a data dependent Fed that much more data dependent. So I think this is a big deal. I think it's, it's a case where he reiterated that they don't want to make the mistake of 21 and 22. That was where the Fed was very late. I don't know that the Fed is in the same situation. The labor market's very different. But this is a Fed that says, and he even pointed out. It's a very interesting interview because there was a lot of different details. He also said that you have a dynamic here where tariffs, you know, we can't blame it on tariffs anymore. In other words, this is Fed through. We've had year over year gapping on some of these dynamics. So I think equities in that two year note that you quoted Mel at 17 month highs, I mean there was not even a war ending, a cease fire rally. And it was a case where I actually think that yields probably, they'll go higher.

F

Yeah, listen, the problem is that I didn't mean listen. I mean I usually look at Tim and I say listen, you know, this is a really bad timing for a 10% move higher in oil especially. I think that a lot of market participants have gotten a lot more comfortable with the notion that we're going to probably be closer to 70 than we are to 80. And when you see this sort of spike and you see this sort of. There was an article in the Washington Post this morning Talking about CEOs and just kind of having higher expectations for inflation going forward, you get that sort of embedded into that sort of psyche and it really doesn't help. And we talk about the labor market, it doesn't feel particularly strong. When you look at the number that we had for June, you look at the revisions for May and April and then if you look at the GDP now and you say to yourself that's closer to 1% and it's to 2%. You look at inflation readings like the CPI that you just mentioned, I mean it's closer to 4% than is the 3%. Right. So a lot of these numbers are going in the wrong way and it really does put the Fed in a box because if you do see material weakness in the labor market and you do see higher prices because of this shock as it relates to the war, then it really does keep them sitting on their hands. And the guy's point, yeah, they might not raise interest rates this year, but the fact that the CME Fed Funds tracker is there and it's implying that that's just going to be the thing that kind of works its into not just CEOs but also consumers.

C

How strong is the lift in the two year yield at this point?

G

It's quite strong, but we do have some overbought short term indications. I think the important thing to note is that we've had a very meaningful shift in long term momentum. The monthly MACD indicator which measures that went negative in around December of 23 and just went positive again. So it's treating that big range that we've seen 10 year yields be in for so long as a continuation pattern, not a reversal pattern.

C

We saw in the markets today once the Waller headlines hit was we saw a steady drumbeat lower Tim, and everything went down. But I'm wondering as we sort of look forward to a future where maybe rates 2 years, 10 years maybe across the yield curve are higher, what, what's the impact on sectors?

E

Well, I think first of all what we're going to see is that the US will probably outperform the rest of the world. I mean that trade, which, you know, some, some, some strategists, some folks that are out there had to quickly revers the war is over trade, go back to international outperformance. But I think within the rotation trade it absolutely should be favoring health care. It should be favoring of course energy, which is kind of your hedge.

D

Right.

E

You're not going to have it as big of a position as other places. But I do think this helps staples and I do think this helps places that we're starting to see some broadening rotation dynamics. I ultimately feel that we're, we're In a place where force wants to put his, his stamp on this Fed, this is Wash has made it clear that he wants a world where the Fed isn't overly important in markets. And I think getting out there and saying there's inflation and we're just going to do what we have to do. I'm not saying they need to go in July, although It's now a 50% probability. I think this would be a great time for Wash to get out there and give the Fed some credibility on that.

D

Clearly the gold market doesn't like this and historically hawkish Fed raising, the whole thing doesn't work and gold's behaving like it has historically. I believe there would be a point in time though where higher rates are actually bullish for gold because rates will be going up for the wrong reasons. We'll see when that happens. And again I keep going back to Japan, which $yen north of 162 a bond market continues to deteriorate in a meaningful way. The road to gold is going to, I think reemerge at some point. Hopefully it's sooner rather than later.

F

Yeah, higher rates also not great for this infrastructure bill. We've seen increasingly more of this build coming with that.

D

Right.

F

And we know that like Oracle for inst, you know, they're going to raise some equity, but the debt that they already have on their balance sheet is basically junk.

H

Right.

F

And we're seeing that with some of the Neo clouds. And so when you see this ping pong action like we're seeing as far as semis are concerned and some of these other names, you know, they got obviously, you know, really killed today. You know, the guy always says that they don't ring the bell at the top, but when you look at that,

D

I never say, I rarely if ever say that.

I

Okay.

F

I don't know why I thought that. But you know this SK Hynix deal, $27 billion coming to these shores and when you think about the importance, importance of that to the Cosby, I mean Samsung and SK, I know we've been talking about this, are 30% of that index, right. So when you look at how it bled into here in the US and money comes out of there and goes into software, I mean that doesn't make a whole heck of a lot of sense when you look at that sort of price action. So again if you're seeing money move into something where there's no fundamental reason that it should be going higher and money coming out in a big, big way in the semis in the memory name, like that's the one thing I'd be really worried about that could take down this market because that's what it's doing in South Korea as potential to do that in Taiwan also.

C

What do you think happens to a broadening trade?

G

We've already seen that happen or unfold. And I think today's sector returns are maybe indicative of what we could expect if we see more corrective action. We'd had a huge gain in energy, a huge loss in tech, not so much software. And the early gains, which were pretty substantial than the more defensive sectors of the market that are interest rate sensitive, were muted after that, that run up. So I think that could be indicative of what's more to come.

C

All right, our next guest expects earnings season to quell a rising wall of worry. Julian Emanuel, senior managing director at Evercore isi. Julian, great to have you with us.

H

Good to be here.

C

Expectations are already high going into earnings season and we've sort of been turning around 7,500 on the S&P 500 for a few months at this point. So why do you think this is going to help?

H

They are, but I think about this first 10 minutes, the glass is very half empty. And for good reason. You know what it sounded like. And I think when you think about it, particularly today, there's a lot of reason to feel that way. Okay. You know, we had Korea implode right after, you know, this major ADR issuance. And then the oil market, I don't think 9% higher was on anyone's bingo card today. And then of course, essentially the fact that we've got Warsh testifying tomorrow, given a bit of a green light to sound hawkish, which he was going to sound anyway. But then two year yields moving to levels, you know, that we haven't seen since before Liberation Day. You put that all together and then you mentioned it earlier, everyone's favorite software company, which has now become a data center developer partner, making new lows for its cycle and oh, by the way, the largest IPO in history now at a price where everyone who's bought it since the IPO day itself is underwater. I'd argue that the market actually traded pretty well given that torrent of extremely negative news. And the reason is, is because earnings are going to show that there is durability to the cycle.

D

So there's durability in the earnings, 100%. But you know that when other things happen, when you have these sort of exogenous events in the form of the bond market, or something else that transcends earnings so we can play the earnings game I must suggest but when things do happen the market doesn't seem to care about the earnings story the ebbs

H

and flows around that but again let's step back and remember you're only a percent and a half off the all time high as you to your point Melissa we've been chopping around 7,500 for heaven knows how long and four and a half percent or so off of the high in the NASDAQ versus Korea which is down 28% I think something like that from its peak and really if you look at it has been the tail wagging the US equity market dog for several months now So I would say that there's a bit of resilience and again which is why when we're thinking about earnings season we're not saying you go out and buy everything. We we think there's a particular opportunity here in a lot of these large cap names that have lagged this year that are going to remind us how strong the cycle is and frankly we think there's going to be little bit of investor acceptance that the capex cycle continues to be strong and that those numbers are likely going up still so

E

I'd love to drill into that deeper because I hear you and I'd love to know which sectors that are not it are the places where earnings really are that resilient and and if an interest rate outlook either from a very hot CPI tomorrow and maybe something in July you weren't expecting what would change

H

that it so so again the the risk factor around CPI clearly has risen because of what we've seen today and the action and the commentary but actually Tim it's less about the earnings of a particular sector away from AI and more about the fact that because everything has become so AI centric whether it's gold or bonds or emerging markets and is that investors are seeking out areas of the market that aren't correlated to AI and we've run something that we call negative beta stocks, energy, staples. Amazing. Look at the tape. Today the insurance sector was up we can sort of invent the reason because yields were higher but those stocks have been correlating to the S&P 500 negatively on a day in and day out basis yet still performing positively for the year. It's absolutely the place where portfolio diversification really can prove beneficial Julian use the

F

term resilient Right so we have an S and P again that's about 7,500 we have a Vix that's like sort of 17. Couldn't you make the argument that it's really complacency when you see this sort of move like you did today in oil, it tells you that investors or traders were not positioned for that.

E

Right.

F

And so it just seems like if we continue to have this, let's say the cpi, listen, we know if the CPI is going to be hot, we don't know what's going to happen to yields tomorrow, that sort of thing. But if it continues that way, it's, I'm hard pressed to think that the S and P is going to stick around at 7,500 because on its way down to, I don't know, was it 70 to 50 and that last little sell, it's only 5%. Right. Like that's the kind of garden variety sort of thing. I just wonder with some of the other stuff that's been leadership that's breaking down that maybe we are a little too complacent, I guess across the entire market.

H

So by the numbers, Dan, I wouldn't argue against that given where the VIX is, But also remember, July tends to be seasonally lower for the vix and then also August, but then all of a sudden you rally volatility wise into September and October. But I would say this first of all, if you look at short interest on something like the triple qs, multi year highs, okay, same with the number of the hyperscalers, multi year highs. And I will say that we have spent essentially since that landmark IPO before that going back into May, we have been disproving the negative on earnings, on valuation, on interest rates, on literally everything in all our client conversations. So, so in our mind, very much like it was at the end of March prior to the start of first quarter earnings reporting season, there's enough negativity out there to cushion any downdraft we'd see in the market.

C

Julian, great to see you. Thank you. Julian Emanuel, We've got breaking news we want to get to out of D.C. new strikes on Iran. Megan Cassell is at the White House with the details. Meghan?

B

Melissa, that's right. The U.S. military saying just in the last few moments confirming that new rounds of strikes have been targeting Iran as of 4:45pm Eastern today. Centcom saying in a tweet those Strikes began at 4:45, that this is the third consecutive night of strikes against Iran at the Commander in Chief's direction. And they say these strikes will to continue, continue, imposing a heavy cost on Iranian forces and degrade their ability to attack innocent civilians and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. So Melissa, we had heard from the president last hour that he said the US Would be attacking Iran again tonight. He also said we would be hitting them hard again tomorrow. So perhaps more to come on that. And this continues the back and forth that we've seen between the US And Iran for most of a week now. It was last Tuesday the first time we heard about this fresh round of attacks taking place. Then the president declaring the cease fire over. Now as you can see, three straight nights of attacks. Now we wait to see if Iran responds again this time.

C

Melissa Megan thanks. Megan Casella and certainly this provides some more fuel for that bid to some of these anti beta names that Julian was talking about. Health care, energy staples. How do these groups look to you, Katie?

G

You know we've been keen on health care because you've seen a reaction to that oversold condition. And today a client asked about some of the consumer staples names and you could make a case for some of them bottoming. But we always favor long term uptrends versus long term downtrends for good reason. And so I don't know if it's the right time to take counter trend positions. I'd rather stay with the winners that have the support of the momentum as measured by just a tight moving average rather than trying to find that sort of hidden gem at this time. Let's get through earnings, let it stabilize a bit further and show that improvement.

D

Energy stocks, we'll say it again, regardless of what you think of the price of crude, I mean they continue to acquit themselves. Marathon names we've just been talking about for years, Marathon, Valero even, they throw in some of the big cap integrated names are starting to get off the mat. They work in this environment.

C

Meantime, Apple shares hitting an all time high today, closing at a new record. Citigroup upping its price target on the stock to three, excuse me, 365 a share about 50% higher from here. Tim, you say this could be the best chart in big tech at this point?

E

Well, it's first of all, it is also the least correlated tech chart out there. Right. It's the biggest company in the world that's not tied to the price of dram, even though they had a really rough patch two weeks ago based upon the price of dram. And I think it's a dynamic where until we see that there really is a pushback in terms of ESP prices and 20% rise in memory in Apple, it's Defensive, they have not been spending in AI. I realize the multiple is not defensible. I realize arguably the EPS growth is something that's debatable. But I'm just looking at the chart and we've got the expert to my left and. But I think Dan's got something to say.

F

No, I just think we get there that lawsuit against OpenAI, I just think that says something about where they are with AI in general. Right. And I think that we can go back to WWDC in June of 2024 and it was a flop. They flubbed it.

E

Right.

F

And then 2025, same thing, right?

C

The lawsuit is desperation.

F

No, I don't think it's desperation. I think that who are they suing? They're suing somebody who's like focused on hardware there, right. And so I think they look out a year or two and they say to themselves, well we don't have the models but we do have, you know, just this monopoly on high end devices. Right. And if they continue to not really put out product that gets investors, or excuse me, consumers that, well, investors too that interested in their products and then they're feeling this pressure from higher dram prices and they have to raise prices and pass them through to consumers. I'm not telling you that people aren't going to go out and buy iPhones, but they might not just upgrade them nearly as fast as they would. And all of this is coming together I think in a very short period of time. And to Tim's point, it acts great and it looks great and feels like it wants to break out. And so investors are seeing something that they don't see as far as the hyperscalers are concerned. And maybe that is the thing. But again, as a product it doesn't seem they're going in the right direction right now.

G

As chart, you know, it is a good long term setup. It does tend to stair a step higher and during those corrective phases it has pretty significant underperformance versus the S&P 500. So we do want to avoid those periods. But if we see a breakout to new highs that's more decisive. Above 317 you can arrive at a measured move projection of about 345. That's obviously compelling upside from current levels. So just honoring that steady long term uptrend with no indications that we're getting into a corrective phase. I think it's at least a strong hold.

D

Report on July 30, the average price target is 319. That's basically where the stock closed. That's 52 analysts, by the way. So the people start trying to get ahead of this earnings release and start to raise price targets. That'll be fun to watch over the next week or so.

C

Coming up, a memory lapse for SK Hynix. What routed shares in their second day of trading on the Nasdaq and whether there's still juice left in the memory rally. That's next. Plus betting on Brazil. The breakout formation Katie is seeing in the charts, the names that could put together the biggest gains don't go anywhere. Fast Money's back into

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this is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on cnbc.

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Welcome back to fast money. SK Hynix as US listed shares tumbling more than 9% in their second day on the Nasdaq. They are now just $3 above where they price. On Thursday Cosby traded shares fell more than 15% overnight there were stay on record memory chips selling off broadly today sand is dropping almost 13% DRAM ETF. That was bad too. Part of for specifically South Korea, Tim. I mean there's like a lot of margin buying leverage ETF action. Just the positioning in it was nuts.

E

I think the positioning locally is yes. And in fact if you look at micro Overall as an asset class year to date, foreign flows are down $100 billion. So the local markets have been have been juiced by the local authorities and you find this in a lot of places. You certainly have this in Japan as well. I think we have a dynamic here where that Hynix listing here was a bit of a sell the moment. I think there have been a lot of people over here looking for ways to get access to Hynek's and never even knew how to spell or pronounce the company three months ago. I also think that the advent of Chinese memory names coming into the market and the fact that there are some of the bigger players that are not in the US and they're in China and we all know China is going hard for this. Peter book for wrote some mentioning about this morning. The FT had a big. Every other place in the world is talking about CMX day other than people in the us So I think there's a Chinese influence here and I think the local Korean market is over levered here.

F

So you also have not just the percent that it makes up of the equity markets you guys just mentioned. There seems to be a bit of a frenzy as it relates to retail trading and they're doing it with leverage and they're doing it with a whole host of other sort of instruments. I'll take it to Taiwan. I mean Taiwan, 60% of their GDP is semiconductor manufacturing. Right. If you think about Taiwan semiconductor, it's also a huge part of whatever their stock market's called. You know, I mean like. And so you say to yourself it's not just as far as an investment bubble, which they clearly are. It's also these economies are very levered to that. So today's a great example where if you do have some sort of disruption in the markets over there, you know it is does have the potential to kind of work its way through here. And you know, make no mistake about it, I mean there is tons of options and levered ETFs and all that stuff going on here. Margin rates are as high as they've been in a very long time. So we have a lot of similar dynamics. We obviously have a lot more diversity though in our markets.

D

We're definitely insulated somewhat from that. Without question. When you see four or five standard deviation events a couple of times now over the last couple of weeks in Korea, South Korea, it makes you sort of stop and say hmm, something's going on. We went from 9,400 I think that was the all time high to 6,800 pretty much in a straight line to me. 6,300 which was the prior all time high back in February before we sold off. That seems somewhat inevitable. But the question is, does it make its way further into our markets here? Katie probably has some thoughts, I mean with that question.

G

It's concerning. On the charts we have short term support levels like the 50 day moving average in Korea being broken. The next support levels are often very well below 10% for SK Hynix in particular. And that's nothing based on what we've seen. It's already down nearly 40% off the high. So it is concerning. It reflects a loss of intermediate term momentum, momentum that we think could continue. The longer term impact that we feel like isn't quite clear yet. The monthly charts look kind of okay. These are very steep uptrends. They tend to resolve in dramatic fashion. And you had to believe that that IPO or the listing here was a sort of sell the news type of event. Potentially.

C

There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

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A bullish call on Brazil, the signal Katie Stockton says investors shouldn't ignore. And the sectors she sees leading South American market's next leg higher plus taking a toll, the US Floating fees for safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz inside the latest flare up with Iran and where oil prices could go next. You're watching Fast MONEY live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.

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C

Welcome back to Fast Money. The Brazil ETF EWZ hit a post pandemic high back in April, but it's been under pressure the last three months, down nearly 16% from its peak. One of our traders says now is a good time to jump in. So Katie, what do you see?

G

Well, Q2 is really rough for Brazilian equities. We saw a strong underperformance for EWC versus the S&P 500. Now however, we're seeing that sort of relative performance and also absolute performance improve. Notably short term momentum has turned to the upside. We saw some gaps up on Friday and this is one potential beneficiary of the rally crude oil prices. But it doesn't even seem to be only just about the rising commodities but also just the broad based rotation that Brazil is benefiting from. So we do see more upside for it had come into very strong long term support and still within the context of a long term uptrend and we found that pretty compelling. Beyond the sort of commodity complex you can find strength in banks like the ITAO bank. It's a ticker here in the US Petrobras we featured last week in our research. PBR is the ticker here. Both of those seem to be ready to advance from their corrective phases and contribute to ewc.

C

Good thing there's an emerging market specialist in the house.

E

Well and Katie crushed it on that bank. Itau pronunciation, I mean so I belong itab. I'm long PBR and idvo. I like Brazil. Everything Katie said. Obviously it's defensive in this higher oil environment. Latin America sometimes might have a lot of issues on the currency side, but the BRL has actually been pretty resilient. I think they've made a massive fiscal adjustment in the last few years. There's some politics that could be a tailwind. PBR on a trailing basis has a monster monster Divya. Never a reason to own. But remember you're investing with the state so they might want to pay themselves and I think they're going to pay

D

a bit big Diff Z basically doubled from late 2024 to the recent highs. The move down has been a straight line lower. But I'm with Katie and Tim on this. I don't underestimate, I think the importance of the sectors that are in this etf, banks and energy and materials to a certain extent. So they get a bounce. I also speak Portuguese extraordinarily well.

E

So give us a couple

F

things.

C

It's like a total of five words.

E

One thing that's insulting to people that do speak.

D

No, I do speak very well. Suggest Bane to the bone.

E

What did you just say?

D

It's just like, you know how you do. Everything's beautiful.

F

Beautiful.

D

Coming up, there's a loss, by the way. They didn't make it.

C

I hope somebody use Portuguese tweets, you know. Post current awakening as the US Reinstates its Hormuz blockade inside, the latest moves higher what it means for prices the pump when fast Money returns.

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Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

C

Welcome back to Fast money. Stocks lower to start the week. The dow losing nearly 140 points. The S&P down less than a percent in the NASDAQ leading the losses off by a percent and a half. Space X sinking another 4% today. The stock now within 3% of its IPO price of 135 a share. And Chimera Therapeutics dropping 7 and a half percent after RBC downgraded the stock to sector perform. While analysts are still positive in the company's atopic dermatitis drug trial. They cite valuation concerns following the stock's 150% gain in the past year. That CEO, remember, joined us here at the NASDAQ just last week, week. All right. Well, oil prices spiking today after President Trump reimposed a blockade of the strait of Hormuz. WTI settling more than 9% higher, briefly, briefly crossing above $78 a barrel. Brent crude rose over 8 over $83, saw its biggest daily move since May of 2020. Joining us now for more, Denton Cinco Grana of Dow Jones Energy. He is a chief oil analyst. Denton, great to have you with us. It was quite a move higher on both Brent as well as wti. Where do you think the new band is that traders should be thinking investors should be thinking about oil in. Denton? Can you hear us? I think, I think we're having some difficulty with Denton or he's just ignoring us. But I believe we're just having some difficulty with the connection there. So we will pause and try to get that worked out. But in the meantime, trade that big move higher because it was a big move higher. But you got to think with strikes resuming, we just heard from Megan Casella that that ban can move even higher from where we are right now.

E

I think so. And I think, I think traders are going to prepare like the, the, the fundamentals around where people were analyzing that this is higher for longer even if it's not spike highs. So I think I look at oil services and it was interesting price action with a number of names. Even so as service firms like slb you kind of, you got, you traded well through that 50. As Katie says, there's often a big gap down to the 200. Well, they all tested it and they bounced. And I think it's an environment where there will be a fundamental reassessment and I think today's move is one to be bought.

G

I agree. For energy stocks we've seen a big oversold upturn, improved short term momentum support levels discovered. For crude oil itself, the 68 to $67 per barrel area for WTI was really very important, important based on the cloud model which for whatever reason holds very strong importance for commodities. So a very important support level was held and now we have this momentum shift and a lot of room to the next resistance. The 50 day is up around $87 per barrel and then the next resistance beyond that is 100. So I just suspect that we've seen a higher low here established. You can look at the individual names, Conoco for one. They really look compelling after having corrected for months.

C

All right, Denton can now hear us. So we'll go back to Denton. Oh great, great to have you with us. Denton, thank you for bearing with us there. I was just asking you before, how should we think about oil in terms of the higher, is there a higher band now where we should think about the oil price?

L

Yeah, and apologize for that before losing the sound and everything. But yeah, no, I think if anything there's more of a floor that's established here and I think, I don't think we're going straight up to $100 again. So inventories seem to be pretty doing okay. We're still releasing from the strategic reserve. So I think in the short term, yeah, we're probably going to see a lot of volatility, a lot of bouncing around of prices but I think for now a floor is certainly being set.

C

But how much is left in our SPR

L

after all is said and done? A couple hundred, three hundred or so million barrels. So. So again I think you can make an argument that at Peak the SPRO holds over 700 million barrels. You probably don't need that much in a environment where gasoline demand in general is declining.

D

In the United States gasoline demand is declining, but so are gas inventories. And you know we talked about crack spreads last week. They continue to sort of favor these refiners. We'll see how long that lasts. But right now it's all system.

L

Yeah, guy, you're absolutely right. Gasoline inventories dropping. And interestingly enough, the region of the country that has the lowest inventories, or at least the largest deficit to the seasonal norm is the Gulf Coast. And that's a sign that we're exporting quite a bit of gasoline to the usual suspects, Latin America, South America. But some countries are coming to the United States for gasoline because of what's happened with the strait kind of being closed, open again. Closed again. What? We'll see what happens. But again, the US Is a strong exporter of refined products. If you want to talk about energy independence, refined products is one where you have certainly have a strong leg to stand on.

E

So. So then give us a little bit more of the upside. I know you're not necessarily picking energy stocks, you're making a call on the sector. But, but talk about why these companies and the sector, which has gone through a few almost, you know, faced the abyss many different times in terms of, of where prices actually fell off for reasons around extra supply and alternative fuels. Why should we own these companies? For reasons that are sector specific, but more bottom up.

L

Yes, Right now, as you mentioned, margins are really strong. Diesel is twice the price of WTI right now and has been for the past four or five days. Diesel inventories globally are tight and in the United States, we've been tight on diesel for much of the last four years or so. Now, this is not necessarily a crude availability story. This is more of a refined products availability story. And that's probably going to last at least for a couple months. Refiners don't really give second quarter earnings until the end of July, first couple of days of August, and I think they're going to be pretty spectacular. And granted we're only a couple weeks into the third quarter and already they're quite strong, particularly for diesel.

C

Seems like we're just like a hurricane away from another spike though in price here. Dentists.

L

Yeah. And it is hurricane season, fortunately, with El Nino weather and wind shear, you know, they usually tear hurricanes up. But you know, the one thing to remember is when you're watching hurricanes and as we're in hurricane season, you watch that swath of the United States from Corpus Christi, Texas to Pascagoula, Mississippi, anything in there, particularly Houston to New Orleans, you're on high alert. But anywhere else, Florida, the Carolinas, up into the mid Atlantic and Northeast. Any other place, it's a demand destroyer more so than a supply destroyer.

C

Right, Denton, Thanks. Good to see you. Denton Cinquegrana.

L

Thank you.

C

Coming up, a World cup windfall. Major League Soccer looking to capitalize on the recent euphoria and its biggest ever marketing push. An inside look at the sports future with one pro athlete who's still young enough to live at home with his parents. Fast Money's back in two. Welcome back to Fast Money. The semifinals for the 2026 FIFA World cup kick off tomorrow with France playing Spain. Argentina takes on England on Wednesday. Rating for the World cup have broken records here and around the world with us with USA's last match against Belgium averaging over 33 million viewers. The most watched soccer telecast in US history according to Fox. Here to talk about what is next for soccer in America, the restart of the MLS season, we're joined by 17 year old pro soccer player Adri Mameti. He's a midfielder for the New York Red Bulls, a club he's been part of since he was 6 years old. How is that even possible? Is that correct? You've been part of this club since six years?

I

Yep.

C

Yeah, because I have six year old twins and when they play soccer they just go, they chase the ball like there's no rhyme or reason.

I

I mean I was doing the same thing when I was in the pre academy.

C

Okay, so what does a World cup mean for sort of reigniting interest in soccer in the U.S. yeah, I mean

I

especially being the host country, it's a big thing and hopefully that that has been played here. A lot of people that are from overseas anywhere they can continue to watch MLS and see how the league's developing with all big players coming here and all the young players, you know, getting their chance to showcase themselves.

C

At 17. Are you approached for sponsorships and things like that?

I

I mean there I try to, I rely more on my parents and my club to do all that, you know, because I'm still young and it's more a mature thing. So, you know, of course I'm mature but I focus on the field and they do the rest.

D

We have a young audience here on Fast Money. I'm sure you're familiar. What's your advice for people that want to be where you are? The 10 year old kid that's watching, how can I get to that level? What's the discipline like to be who you are?

I

I think everything comes down to how you treat your body off the field and on the field. Of course. Trust the process, fall in love with the process, obviously, because Everyone has a different pathway, and if you keep working hard, keep doing the right things, it'll all fall into place.

F

Audrey, you're obviously working very hard in school and also in soccer. Do you spend any time looking at the markets? A lot of kids your age are really into it. They're into crypto, into, you know, prediction markets, that sort of thing.

I

To be honest. No. I mean, I'm working, obviously, like you said. I do school.

F

Yeah.

I

It's not my number one priority, of course. I wouldn't prefer to do it, but, you know, my mom and my dad, they keep me on top of it, so I have to do it. Other than that, no, not really.

E

Audrey.

F

What?

A

What?

E

US Belgium was a disappointment for this country. And not only did we expect to get past the round of 16, or we wanted to. To what's holding U.S. soccer back on the field? Because you look at other sports in this country that were more nascent, call it five, 10 years ago, whether it's lacrosse or what. I mean, U.S. hockey is another example of a stock of a sport that's gone mainstream that was not really our sport. What do we need to do here?

I

Listen, I think the US had a great tournament. Other than that last game, of course, it's disappointing, but looking at all the other games, all the positives, they played really well. They were very dominant in the group stages. And then going into the round of 32, I thought they played really well. And then against Belgium, a good opponent, of course, it's unlucky, and obviously we all want. I was playing, I played for the youth, of course, us, and I wanted them to go far as well, but unfortunately it wasn't to be. And then, you know, soccer again, is still developing here, and it's getting bigger and better every single day, and we're going in a good way. So.

C

Do you ever stop and think that you could have more than 20 years? I mean, Lionel Messi is, what, 39 years old, and he is, like, he's at the peak of his career right now, and you're only 17. How do you think about that sort of future? And how do you plan that?

I

I mean, I hope to have a very long career, play for one of the biggest clubs one day. That's my goal and stuff. But again, I try to take it day by day, step by step. And again, like you said, to have a long career is any player's dream. Any young player, especially dreaming to play in one of the biggest clubs in Champions League.

A

So.

D

So that's my goal for sure, understanding you want to be the next you going forward in 20 years from now, people will be who do you pattern your game after that? People at home would know.

I

I, I watched a lot of Sergio Busquets before he retired. I think we have the similar play styles and him being so calm, I try to implement that into my game. Whatever he's doing with and without the ball, I try to take all of that in and, you know, see what he's doing so I can make my game better.

G

Better.

C

How much do you watch the World Cup?

I

I watch all the games.

C

I think every single game.

I

Maybe missed a couple because of training, but I watch all the games because of training.

C

Not because of school.

I

No, no, not school. I won't do school. I'll watch the game.

A

Who are you rooting for at this

I

point right now, I think France is going to win, but I want England.

E

There you go. Why is that?

I

Just, I like Jude Bellingham a lot. Yeah, Jude Bellingham a lot. I think he's a great player, hard worker. He's done everything he's good for for England right now and he's. I think he's carrying their team right now. So because of him and because of their club, you know, because England, I

F

want them to win. Amen.

E

Go Britain.

C

Audrey, great to meet you. Best of luck.

I

Thank you. I appreciate, thank you for having me.

C

Coming up, Starbucks quiet grind higher. What's behind the coffee chain surge this year? What signals about CEO Brian Nichols turnaround push more fast money into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Starbucks rising over a percent to close at 52 week highs. The stock now 27% higher this year and has quietly been outpacing restaurant rivals including Dutch Bros. And McDonald's over that time. So is this a sign that the company's turnaround efforts under CEO Brian Niccol have taken effect? Guy, you pointed this one out.

L

Yeah.

D

And we talked about last week when Tim was not here, but we said he's been talking about this for a while and he's been been correct to. Now valuation is clearly concerning, but the turnaround seemingly in place. I mean, very quietly. This stealth rally is getting us almost to past all time highs, which is remarkable in an environment where not a lot of these stocks are trading that way.

C

How does the chart look?

G

You know, it's been rangebound for so long, but it's good to see the momentum improve from an intermediate term perspective. There's room to resistance around 117 for Starbucks. So near term upside and that will be a proof point for it.

E

How do you Feel I like the story. I think this is slow and steady wins the race. I don't know that you need to chase this one. I'm long it it's one that we have clients that like it and I think it's a case where he is slowly turning around dynamics. Operationally there's no question the brand is what it is. I think they have margin issues with, with input costs. They're better. I don't think North America was a big turnaround last couple of quarters and I think that's what you want to see.

F

Pretty Stark performance by McDonald's relative to let's say Starbucks, Chipotle and Shake Shack. Today it literally is sitting at like 24 week lows. You know that would be two years guy. And I just don't you think, you think that in this sort of environment we get a 40 year chart of McDonald's? I think that's the one that I think most the most sense here now just actually poorly.

C

Well, that demographic probably feels the pain of higher prices at the pump much more acutely than a Starbucks demographic, I would argue.

D

Amazing how quickly went from an all time high to a 52 week low. I mean Katie can speak to this as well. You typically don't see that. I don't think valuation is ridiculous and I'm surprised at how poorly it trades. But Mel, I think you bring up the exact right point.

G

It's a hard one to get excited about. I mean the momentum loss is pretty severe and you're getting breakdowns from a short term perspective. So I would wait for the long term oversold condition that has returned to lead to improved momentum.

E

I feel McDonald's could be in line for a little boomerang if we continue to see oil prices go and I mean to the downside. In other words, I, I think higher oil prices, higher gas prices, I think higher inflation, possibly higher rates. This is what McDonald's is struggling. They can weather this better than a lot of their peers and they can push other people around with discount. But I don't think you need to chase this one either. I love McDonald's.

D

You know, it's not eating McDonald's. My man Audrey ain't eating that stuff no way.

E

Nice.

F

Yeah.

E

Looking good.

C

Up next, final trades, Final trade time. Tim.

E

Petra Brush, you brought it up. I think it's an interesting stock. They have growth, they have a valuation argument and they have a nice dip.

C

Katie.

G

I'll go with ConocoPhillips Picker Cop just to take advantage of the oversold bounce.

F

Dan Yeah, I think you sell rallies in bitcoin. I'm doing it through the IBIT etf.

C

That tracks it, guy.

D

We should all go to Red Bulls game together.

C

That would be fake. You don't go anywhere. But sure, let's go.

D

We did energy, energy and the triple for your Joker's Wild fans out there. So I'll see you at DVD end Melms.

G

All right.

C

Thank you for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow at 5. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.

B

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