Chip Patterson

During the football season, the COVID 3 podcast is always on the road. Think about last year where we loved tailgating with our fans in Tallahassee before Florida State took on Miami. And the trips will continue this season as we head to Chicago for Big Ten Media Days, Las Vegas for the National Championship, and make stops at other campuses across the country along the way. With my house sitting empty on so many weekends, listing it on Airbnb is an easy way to make a little extra money while I'm already already gone. It just makes sense to put the house to work while I'm out covering college football. While you're away, you could list your space on Airbnb. It's a great way to make extra money during these high demand weekends without having to upend your daily life or treat it like a demanding full time job. Honestly, listing my space feels like a smart thing to do because it's just so incredibly practical. I'm already going to be traveling anyway, so I could use a little extra money toward my upcoming vacation to help offset the cost of flights or upgrade my travel gear. It just turns an empty house into an easy opportunity. While you enjoy your own time off, your home might be worth more than you think. Find out how much@airbnb.com host.

Bud Elliott

Welcome Back to the COVID 3 podcast with your hosts Chip Patterson, Tom Fernelli, Danny Cannell and Bud Elliott. It's your call for the best college coverage from national signing day to the national championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the COVID 3 podcast

Chip Patterson

and welcome back to the COVID 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Danny Cannell, that's Bud Elliott, I'm Chip Patterson coming to you live YouTube.com cover3 and everywhere you get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe smash that like and come and join us in the chat. AKA the COVID 3 tailgate where they are filled up with turnaround candidates. But I got to highlight something special. 9:56am Eastern Time Great great report from Las Vegas Morning gentlemen. I'm in Vegas for Summer League watching the Rockets play the Nuggets and who do I see in the row ahead of me? Ben middle Brooks's uncle Shout out to Danny for being welcoming. I guess we would call them a Vikes Vikings. I I don't want to stumble into mispronouncing your YouTube username. Do you remember our friend right here from the COVID 3 tailgate who was who enjoyed spending time with you out there at NBA Summer League while you're watching the fam?

Danny Cannell

I met Several Fans of the COVID 3 podcast talking to a few. One guy. I don't know. I don't know which one is which, but one guy was like, take it easy on Tom for me, who's not here. You know, you said, big tent. I was like, tell Tom take it easy on Florida State is what I wanted to tell him, but it was. Yeah, I got back last night. It was pretty cool. I never been to summer league in Vegas. It was pretty wild. I mean, it was like a who's who of NBA. Like, you know, just. I don't say royalty, but I mean, like, Brad Stevens was, like, walking. Sat right behind, like, three rows behind me. You know, Dan Hurley was there. I was in the taxi line with Dan Hurley.

Bud Elliott

Wait.

Danny Cannell

And I was like, man, they didn't get you a car service? And of course, it was like, please hold on.

Chip Patterson

Does Dan know you?

Danny Cannell

I. I said something after a few minutes because we were sitting. Literally, like, 15 minutes, we're in the thing. And so I was giving a hard time, and he didn't say anything. And then I was like, you know, I've actually interviewed before. He's like, oh. And he's like. He's watching. I said, danny Cannell. And he goes, oh, Florida State. He goes, oh. So. So we were talking for a few minutes, but it was really cool. They had a bunch of lottery picks. Caleb Wilson At 35 the first night, you know, a bunch of lottery picks. So it was cool. Yeah, it was fun.

Bud Elliott

So sorry, I was texting back the group chat. I. I. Never mind. Do we have an update on the ketchup on Mac and cheese? Because I. I did.

Chip Patterson

See.

Bud Elliott

Danny's wife has seen the reel now. Oh, she did?

Danny Cannell

What did she do?

Bud Elliott

No comment. So we're gonna go to the inside source here. Like, did she back you on the ketchup on Mac and cheese? Or is this, like.

Danny Cannell

Yeah, she's just become accustomed to it. I think she just knows it's part of the drill. Like, she doesn't knock it anymore. Part of the norm. One of my daughters 100% likes it as well, and possibly two. I'm trying to think, you know, the ketchup runs in the blood and the canal.

Unidentified Guest

Blood.

Chip Patterson

Yeah, that red ain't blood, baby.

Bud Elliott

Okay, dude, get. Get one of the ketchup companies to sponsor us.

Chip Patterson

Let's go. We're ready. We are ready. All right, lots to get to today. Our big topic, as you see in the headline, is turnaround teams. One of our favorite exercises is to go through. Every year we try to identify those teams that could end up having some of the biggest year over year turnarounds. You'll remember Last year, Houston, Utah, six game win improvements, Kennesaw State, eight game win improvement from 2 and 10 to 10 and four Southern Miss, San Diego State, North Texas. Those were some of the big ones last year. We're going to try to call our shot. We're going to try to find some of those opportunities where we could see those bigger win improvements and labeled them as turnaround teams. We also have a question that's been bounced around the mailbag about summer school. So as that series is starting to come to a close, we got a good question for Bud on that one. Also, a little bit of homework from Thursday's episode that we'll circle back to. But the one big news item of the day and really of the week is all eyes on Thursday afternoon in Ann Arbor, Michigan, where the ultimate result is not known. But it does look like the conclusion of internal investigations into Michigan's athletic department, sparked in the wake of the firing of Sharon Moore, could end up having some, you know, I hate to use the word casualties because I don't think anyone's going to pass away because of this investigation. But goodness gracious, in the organizational chart, we might be switching out some names, Brandon Marcelo, among others. I saw Ross Dellinger had a report on this as well. The future of athletic director Ward Manual is in doubt. Now. Ward Manual on one side, no, not that long ago, was standing on the court in his maze hoodie under the blazer, and they were like, Ward, are you the best athletic director in the country? National championship in football, national championship in men's basketball. And Ward Manual said, I'm gonna let you guys write that. You know, he didn't say no. He didn't say no. He felt very good about his position. But whatever the findings of this investigation might be have now very much led to the kind of smoke signals that we typically see from insiders that come after internal investigations that usually lead to leadership changes. Danny, how are you? How are you preparing yourself? What's your what's your storm ready status for whatever kind of headlines might be coming Thursday out of Ann Arbor?

Danny Cannell

I think he's done right. I mean, that's kind of the expectation as he's done. And I do think it is one of those, you know, what do you take from his era? Do you take the national championships or do you take some of the disaster hires? I mean, it hasn't been great the amount of investigations that have gone on under his watch, you are the face of the athletics program has not been great. You know, so is it. Is it worth the two titles? How much those do you credit, you know, to him? You know, even the Jim Harbaugh exit wasn't great. You know, that that relationship was strained. And I know Jim Harbaugh is not the easiest person to work with, but I just think. I don't know, I think it's gonna be a complex legacy that he leaves behind.

Bud Elliott

I mean, look, flags fly forever, right? So Michigan's not going to take down those banners even if Ward Manual goes down. But I also think Michigan sees itself as like this very, like, you know, buttoned up. We do things the right way. Even if maybe recent evidence suggests that maybe hasn't always been the case th. The investigation and whatever the investigation is going to reveal that we don't already know or that we haven't already heard about it. It's kind of a tough thing to comment on because, like, we don't, like, we're like, commenting on like, what could happen with the results of investigation that we don't know what it revealed.

Chip Patterson

Right.

Bud Elliott

But like, if it goes down, then clearly, like just logic says they found something that they can't have happened from an administrator.

Chip Patterson

Well, there's two things that sort of like, so pile on here in terms of like, what this makes sense to the COVID three conversation number one, remembering during the firing of Sharon Moore, a lot of backlash within the Michigan University community about the way that Ward Manual handled the firing and that even in the immediate wake of that, there was some. Some real, you know, like, people who don't necessarily. Like people who aren't necessarily in the weeds on college football, but very, very much care about the University of Michigan, which to your point, kind of speaks to the University of Michigan seeing itself as a much larger apparatus than just the football program and the football team, there was some real criticism from inside the Michigan community about, you know, why didn't you go through all these steps of a more propering or safer firing process? Why did we put ourselves in the position where another employee or former employee was like, put in jeopardy, put in danger, you know, as like the wake of the small domino, big domino. But your. Do you know what else that Michigan probably wants to do? Follow every one of these things by the law of their dismissal and investigation process. What they probably were not going to do was act swiftly. And, and so when this headline comes out around the time that the investigation is complete, my read on this situation. Danny, like you said, Right off the rip, we're probably going to have a change at athletic director. Okay. I don't what we're going to find, what it's going to lead to with cause, without cause, resignation, retirement, who knows? I don't like those. Those are technicalities that have to do with buyouts and contracts that don't matter to the COVID 3 podcast. But here's what does matter. What does this mean for Kyle Whittingham? What does this mean for Michigan football already in turmoil? What is the, what is the outlook? Are you just relying on being Michigan when it comes to the recruiting trail? Because if I'm recruiting against Michigan, I'm like, you don't have an athletic director. You're, you're Kyle Whittingham. How many years is he actually going to be there and actually going to do this thing? I mean there's, there's, there's a little bit of a floating without a direction when it comes to Michigan's, you know, iconic big brand football team.

Bud Elliott

I mean, if you're an AD taking this over, right. Kyle Whittingham is. How old is Kyle Whittingham?

Chip Patterson

I thought it was 61. Check me quick.

Bud Elliott

I know, I think he looks younger than he actually is.

Danny Cannell

Shoot, 61 ain't that young. He is 60.

Bud Elliott

He's 66. Seven this year during the season. All right. He's on a five year deal. I will probably have egg on my face for this because the guy seems to be immortal, but like he's. That, that's a one contract tenure.

Chip Patterson

Correct?

Bud Elliott

Right.

Chip Patterson

Excuse me? When I say correct, I'm saying I think so.

Unidentified Guest

Yes.

Danny Cannell

Yeah.

Bud Elliott

Like, so he'll be turning 72 during his final year of that. Are they going to give a guy extension who's already turning 72 before Thanksgiving on, on. Probably not. Right? So if you're an AD taking this over, you're like, okay, unless Whittingham has totally lost it and Utah was right that like he's very much on the backside of, of his, his career as far as ability, obviously. Timeline, for sure. Then I'm walking into a pretty stable situation with the guy who knows how to coach ball. And I can evaluate it and you know, I'll make sure I have that nice list of names that all these ads allegedly keep in this, this mythical drawer that they have when they, when they go, when they have to make a coach change. Like, I don't think it's really that, that negative of a thing there for them. And I don't think it, I don't think it really impacts recruiting anyway. Personally, I mean it.

Chip Patterson

How do you feel if you're Kyle Whittingham? Second thing, how do you feel if you're Kyle Whittingham? I mean, I mean, yeah, bro.

Bud Elliott

Bro.

Chip Patterson

You don't have a boss. There's a little bit of a lack of accountability right now. And not that I don't think Kyle Whittingham would do nefarious things, but. But however much job pressure there was, if there are other issues at the University of Michigan, there are other issues in the athletic department than whether or not this is a 9 and 4, 9 and 3 or 8 and 4 season. There's a little bit less pressure.

Bud Elliott

Tend to agree. I mean, I think the pressure on him is probably from himself, like the pressure to prove that he still has it.

Danny Cannell

Yeah.

Bud Elliott

After Utah decided to go with Morgan Scally over Kyle Whittingham.

Danny Cannell

Right.

Chip Patterson

Good point.

Danny Cannell

Shoulder a little bit going for him.

Bud Elliott

And his contract's 40 million 75 of its guaranteed. So he's walking with 30 million unless something insane happens, which obviously we just saw. It did happen in Michigan, but I don't think that's gonna go down there most likely. So I would say, like, if you're winning him, do you really care? I like the best job I can. I'm getting paid crazy money, don't you think?

Danny Cannell

He had to have known something about this from.

Chip Patterson

You came in after he was fired. Like, yes. He also reads the paper. He understands.

Danny Cannell

And I mean, I'm sure his agent is people there. People know, you know, something could happen.

Chip Patterson

And just like for the context here, the internal investigation was the response to, you know, NCAA and Big Ten looking into sign stealing. It was also offensive coordinator Matt Weiss getting an actual legal issue like, like, very, very problematic allegations tied to him as well. Stack that on, you know, some of the compliance in terms of whether or not evidence was destroyed and whether or not you were working with investigators and who knew what, when, who pressured who when the reporting going into Sharon Moore's affair with another employee. Like, there's. There was a lot that needed to be untangled. What was the number for the law firm? This was a billable hours hall of fame, wasn't it? 11 million.

Bud Elliott

I don't remember what it was.

Danny Cannell

That's.

Bud Elliott

That's pretty nice fees there.

Chip Patterson

That's good. That's good work if you can get it, you know, Thursday. That's the important issue. Jamie Pollard, because he resigned.

Bud Elliott

He just.

Chip Patterson

Would he be resigning to go and take the job at Michigan?

Bud Elliott

I mean, his major complaints have been dollars. Michigan does not lack for dollars.

Chip Patterson

That's an interesting, interesting. I thought Jamie Pollard was actually just retiring.

Bud Elliott

I mean, he's no great 61.

Chip Patterson

He might, he might have heard Michigan needs a bridge coach and a bridge ad.

Bud Elliott

Maybe. So, you know, I have no information on that, by the way. I just thought about it like, like, that's a pretty known name in the ad circles who did a really good job at Iowa State, right. Which is not an easy place to win, Right.

Chip Patterson

God, the most gut wrenching. I think it must have happened at a basketball game, him talking about Matt Campbell after Matt Campbell took the Penn State job with, like, this. Jamie Pollard, Iowa State athletic director, talked about with so much love in his heart and appreciation for what Matt Campbell did. And it was the ultimate, like, yeah, I'm going to let my son go to college now. I mean, he just, you know, he just, he totally knew. He was like, yeah, I did not think that Matt Campbell was going to stay at Iowa State forever. Thankful for everything that he did. It was very, I think it was in the hallway at a basketball game, given some quotes to reporters. I remember that press conference for a long time. Very interesting call out here. All right, one quick. This is from deep in the mailbag, but I want to make sure I get to it, given the time of year that we're in, before we hit a break and then jump into those turnaround teams discussions. This question comes from Nicholas and they really looking for bud. Nicholas asks, when doing your summer school series, are there any subtle tells you notice from people you interview that tell you if they think their team will have a good or bad season?

Bud Elliott

Oh, absolutely.

Chip Patterson

Oh, what are the tells?

Bud Elliott

So I'm trying to figure out how to separate this out because, like, if you know these guys, you know how to read them a little bit better, right? And like, so since I've worked with all of them, I probably go into it thinking, hey, like, but one, if you're like, for a listener at home, like, pay attention to the adjectives that the person uses and grade it on a scale, right? If he's someone who's very effusive with praise and then, you know, says, hey, they'll probably be okay here. And their win total is six and a half. Internally, my brain's like, okay, that.

Chip Patterson

So they're bad there.

Bud Elliott

Yeah, like, so you kind of got to like. And some guys are, are. I didn't say it's more objective. Some guys are just more negative in general. Right? Or like, hey, you got to prove it to me type thing. So like, if you get like seven, like they're probably gonna be okay. Is there? And their win total is nine, right? You probably. And then he's like, hey, like, I actually feel great there. Then you're probably okay. That position is full of studs, right? They're probably pretty decent elsewhere. Other things like pass rush by committee, receiver by committee, immediate red flags, right? Unless you have an absolute like Tom Brady who can truly distribute the ball around. College football is not a receiver by committee thing. It's, do you have a dude or do you not have a dude, like Ohio State type stuff accepted. Because like, really, they probably do have a quarterback like that and they, they might really have three studs. But if you're like a, a mid level power four team, you're like, yeah, I think they got, you know, some potential answers there to probably spread it around. Like, okay, downgrade for sure. Like, I don't, I don't buy into that. That's a premium position that costs a lot of money in the portal to go get Defensive line, kind of the same thing, you know, hey, we'll cobble together a pass rush. It happens sometimes it's not real likely unless it's a situation where the team has like a lot of really high upside guys who just have to go prove it. Then I think, okay, like reasonably, the odds that one of like safety in large numbers, like the odds that one of these really highly pedigreed guys turns out to be a stud is, you know, pretty decent. Who else? That's like trying to think sometimes there's some tells with depth, right? Like this guy's gotta stay healthy because like the backups are real, real sketch. I don't think that applies offensive line typically, because like almost nobody out there likes their offensive line depth. Because if you've shown you can play at all, you're probably gonna get paid to be a starter somewhere else, you know, but maybe, maybe some of the other positions.

Chip Patterson

You know, one thing that I'm always listening for is, you know, how much of the success is based on somebody getting cleared again or coming back from some kind of injury. Like when, when you were talking about depth. I'm thinking about when I've heard some of these guys discuss, you know, and on the inside of the defensive line they should be okay as long as they get so and so and so and so back. And it's like, okay, that's something to keep an eye on if we get a re aggravation or if all of A sudden something, something goes awry in the, in fall camp or the first week of the season.

Bud Elliott

100%. Well, like Notre Dame, right. I think you could make a real argument that like three of the top, let's just call it so we don't get clipped and you know, parsed here like maybe three of the top 10 potential players on the Irish are all dudes who are like coming back from injury or have like substantial injury history. But if they stay healthy, like that's a team that I could see winning a national title. Like those are like, like the really high upside guys. And if they don't, I think it's merely just like a pretty good team that should win double digit games. But I don't know if they have enough difference makers without those guys. I remember thinking pretty vividly when I was talking to Tim of Irish Illustrated, you know, just, okay, I could see the path if they get really good injury luck here from those type of guys.

Chip Patterson

That was a good clip, but I'm just going to go ahead and throw that out there. We mentioned to national title, we mentioned Notre Dame, we said if it doesn't happen, they're still pretty good. That's, that's just, that's just how the content's made right there.

Bud Elliott

Good job.

Chip Patterson

I know you didn't want to get clipped. I think that's probably a fair assessment of Notre Dame. If, if everybody who is coming back from injury is fully healthy and plays to their full potential, they're the best damn team in the country.

Bud Elliott

You know who's the DN with the hyphen name? Shoot. I forgot. I'm trying to like look at my notes less and just look at the camera more per feedback. But I already clipped. Okay, we're already clipped.

Chip Patterson

All right, we're good. We're good to go. Yeah, yeah. So again we are, we've got, we're almost done recording, right? Or is it, is it all done?

Bud Elliott

I've got four more today. I just got hooked up, I think with finally a cal one and maybe one more. So I think we have 12 more to release, which will be great.

Chip Patterson

Good stuff. All right, coming up on the other side, we dive in with our Turnaround teams for 20, 26. Calling our shot for who's going to have some of the biggest year over year win improvements and more.

Bud Elliott

Next.

Chip Patterson

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Bud Elliott

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Chip Patterson

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Danny Cannell

Yes, by the way. Yeah, just since we just had our UFC promo. I was in Vegas and I might have lost at the tables.

Bud Elliott

Oh.

Danny Cannell

But the best bet that I made was not purchasing tickets for the Conor McGregor return, which I would have been because that tickets I was gonna pull the trigger on about a 2500 ticket. And I did not and have never been happier that I did not say that. Look.

Chip Patterson

How'd it go with the tables?

Danny Cannell

Not good.

Chip Patterson

Where were you staying?

Danny Cannell

The aria.

Chip Patterson

Okay. Your spot. Great.

Danny Cannell

The room was free, so that was good. But that was. It was expensive. Let's just put it at that.

Chip Patterson

Was it as nice as the room you had for media days?

Danny Cannell

No, it was not. It was not that nice. That was a slow weekend.

Chip Patterson

Yeah.

Danny Cannell

UFC fight. I mean, it was. It was. It gave me just the room.

Bud Elliott

Yeah. Chip, did you see Is the ACC hired as the supervisor of officials?

Chip Patterson

It's not that Gary Patterson. It is a different Gary Patterson.

Bud Elliott

No, no, I don't mean the. I don't mean the USC defense coordinator.

Chip Patterson

No, no, no. The ACC coordinator of official officials who's taking over. Al Riveron was the coordinator of Fishers. He retired. This is an ACC official named Gary Patterson who has done like, he did the 0809 national championship game or something like that. He's done a couple of ACC championship games. I don't have a game or a call that is like, tied to Gary Patterson.

Bud Elliott

Is this the guy who quit in protest over how they did the review in Syracuse? Whatever game that was a while back? Like, the name seems familiar.

Chip Patterson

Well, his name is Gary Patterson.

Bud Elliott

Right.

Chip Patterson

But like, so it's gonna trigger a lot of stuff in your mind.

Danny Cannell

Yes.

Bud Elliott

Yeah. Okay. Well, at least the same name. ACC RAF quits over handling of Yukon

Danny Cannell

Syracuse review ACC hires referee who quit last season as supervisor.

Chip Patterson

Do you want. You know what?

Bud Elliott

That sounds like he was probably right.

Unidentified Guest

Yeah.

Bud Elliott

They're like, hey, you're good at this.

Chip Patterson

And the guy. And the guy who he disagreed with is now gone.

Bud Elliott

Yeah, okay.

Chip Patterson

Just. I mean, that's just reading tea leaves. I'm supposed to be in Charlotte a little bit later. Gonna get on the. Get on the Amtrak, head over there late tomorrow afternoon. If I hear any more scuttlebutt, I'll be sure to bring it to the COVID 3 podcast first to let you know. Yeah, that's. That's gotta be. I was right. You know, he's. He's probably gonna put. He's probably gonna pick a play from that game for his, his commentary, for his little seminar. Yeah, maybe that play. It should be.

Unidentified Guest

Should be.

Chip Patterson

I mentioned the, I mentioned earlier that last season we did see just kind of an absolutely massive Kennesaw State eight game turnaround from 2 and 10 to 10 and 4. We don't typically see eight game turnarounds. Usually they're more of the four plus variety. You know, you've got six game turnarounds for Houston, Utah, North Texas, San Diego State and Southern Miss. Now, in some of these cases, you do have a, an in key injuries that went the other way. Certainly that comes to mind for Utah. Houston was just a big step forward. Same could be said for San Diego State, North Texas finally putting it all together. Southern Miss is, man, the huge outlier of this one because obviously Charles Huff showed up with a team from Marshall that had just competed for a Sunbelt title. And now Southern Miss is also kind of, you know, is starting over once again.

Bud Elliott

Yeah, they, they, they. I wonder what the record is for like the biggest variance in wins over three seasons because they Golden Eagles are

Chip Patterson

gonna, they're gonna flirt with it in Hattiesburg if it just real quickly before we start to dive in. Is there anything to be learned, any common thread here in terms of trying to find the bounce back teams? It's not as many first year head coaches as I would have thought. It truly was some like building some quarterback, you know, Devin Dampier, Drew Mestemaker, San Diego State, finally settling on Jane Denegal even if it was a defensive led team. Any common threads here generally like, like

Bud Elliott

you could probably bucket it into a few things like big transfer class, quarterback injury the prior year which meaningfully suppressed the win total and favorable schedule this year compared to last year. Yeah, like it's pretty much going to be those three buckets. I think at least that's kind of what I found when I was doing mine.

Chip Patterson

Oh my goodness. Great call by Jerry. No power two teams. Is it possible to even have a turnaround in the power 2 or are the big 10 in the SEC power structures just like so locked in? No, I had a couple to be able to. I mean I do too.

Danny Cannell

We would have had Indiana on there a year earlier. Yes, the year Signetti took over.

Chip Patterson

Yes. They had a, A six winning even more. Yeah, they had a big, big time improvement from, from 3 and 9 to 11 and 2. That was another, another big one along the way. Well, let's start in the power two then. All right, let's start in the Big Ten. But you said you got a couple. What, who, who you got your eyes on in the Big Ten?

Bud Elliott

Ucla, Wisconsin, Penn State.

Chip Patterson

How many wins do you think Penn State could improve?

Bud Elliott

Probably two or three. Right. They, they went six and six last year.

Unidentified Guest

Okay.

Bud Elliott

So I, I could see, I mean I could see them going 8, 4, 9 and 3. I mean this like this is really new coach, transfer infusion. But most of this is schedule. Right? Like if Penn State is any decent at all, like losing four games is pretty unacceptable. Like their schedule is, is pretty ridiculous honestly. Yeah, like in a favorable way like they Marshall, which should be pretty improved at Temple, which I a team in the American actually like quite a bit Buffalo, which I have real doubts about. Wisconsin to the extent you can have like strong strongly held opinions about G5 this point of the year. But like I'm a little skeptical on Buffalo. Wisconsin comes to Happy Valley, they have to go to Northwestern, which is the I believe opener of the new stadium for the Wildcats. So potentially tricky. But like if you're actually Good. Northwestern should not be tricky. USC comes back to them, they get the extra day of rest because that Northwestern games on a Friday so you get extra day rest, you get USC traveling cross country, then you got to go to Michigan, then you get Purdue, you go to Washington, you host Minnesota, you host Rutgers and you finish up at Maryland. Like that's pretty nice for them that

Chip Patterson

they need to get somebody to be able to get up to like a four win improvement. Though if they're going to be a ten win team, they got to go get somebody.

Bud Elliott

I mean really, I think they're favored in 10.

Chip Patterson

Are they favored at Washington?

Bud Elliott

I have been favored at Washington, but small.

Chip Patterson

Okay, all right. So we there, there is not a single game on Penn State schedule that they cannot win. Fair.

Bud Elliott

Agreed.

Chip Patterson

Okay. But it's just trying to take all of the turnover into consideration. I, you mentioned ucla. I think UCLA will have the biggest year over year win improvement number in the Big Ten three and nine one year ago. We don't have a new portal quarterback though we do have a full off season with Nico Iamaliava. So I think that's going to be good. I think Bob Chesney and his staff are going to bring an influx of, you know, upgrades when it comes to the offensive coaching and what they're putting around him. One of the better running backs in the entire country last season was a guy named Wayne Knight. No, no, no, not that Wayne Knight. No, not him, not Newman, but Wayne Knight. The UCLA Bruin, former James Madison Duke is a really, really good running back. Somebody that the Dukes relied on a lot and who is expected to be able to step in and be very plug and play. That's going to help Nico. A lot is going to be there to set up for him. They were three and nine last season. I mean win totals already have them projected to be about a 6 and 6 football team. Could they take the next step? Danny, that's what I was asking is like could you see UCLA as a 7 and 5 team? Because that 4 win improvement would be something that'd be pretty big and even more, you know, if you think that they can do it against this schedule.

Danny Cannell

I think they could start four. No, I don't think that's crazy. They're unslied underdog against Cal. San Diego State's pretty good team. Merrily, Purdue, they should win at home. That's one you have to have then. You know, Oregon obviously is a tough one. Wisconsin and is another team that I do want to talk about. But that's one you could win Michigan State. You can win Nevada. Yeah, like I think absolutely. I had them as my biggest turnaround in the Big Ten.

Bud Elliott

Yeah, I think they're there as well. The biggest turnaround in the Big Ten will probably swing on that ucla, Wisconsin game.

Chip Patterson

Yeah, good call.

Bud Elliott

Like I have UCLA favorite over Wisconsin because I don't think Wisconsin's good. I just think they have a real, real easy schedule and that game's obviously in la, but man, like there's a lot if they're actually really good and they also have the potential, like what if Nico really takes a jump?

Chip Patterson

Right, but we said that last year, you know, like, and that staff was

Bud Elliott

probably a little questionable.

Unidentified Guest

Yeah.

Danny Cannell

At times. You know,

Bud Elliott

they also probably don't get beat up too much early on.

Chip Patterson

Right.

Bud Elliott

Like Michigan, USC ending the year, you could, you could drop those two and still have the biggest improvement in the Big Ten.

Danny Cannell

Well, remember, huge, you know, LA game is huge.

Bud Elliott

Like how many, how many real true road weather games do you have here in the league?

Chip Patterson

Minnesota 1. Oh, man, probably just Michigan.

Bud Elliott

Like at Minnesota is probably not.

Chip Patterson

Oh, come on. You know it's gonna be cold and

Bud Elliott

rainy first week of November.

Chip Patterson

Hey, listen, they're gonna put that, that game is gonna be on at noon. You're playing that thing at nine local. You know, what about Wisconsin? Let's unpack this because you mentioned Wisconsin, ucla, UCLA will have the better quarterback in that game.

Bud Elliott

Oh yeah.

Chip Patterson

Wisconsin also has been working to build around it. Last year, the Wisconsin Badgers, of course, wildly disappointing. Luke Fickle was hoping for the breakthrough season. We talked to him about it, and they end up finishing 4 and 8. Now they're projected to be, I don't know, either a 6 and 6 or 7 and 5 teams. Is that the ceiling here? Could you see an 8 and 4? Because if Wisconsin is really going to challenge for the biggest year over year turnaround, I feel like we need to ask, is Wisconsin going to get to 8 and 4?

Danny Cannell

I don't think it's crazy and I think it's the opposite. Like ucla. I think they have to make their hay early, Wisconsin has to make their hay late. Like they have to win those last four games probably. So then it becomes like how, like how demoralizing is the Notre Dame game. There are three touchdown, you know, if they get shut out 35 to nothing, which wouldn't be crazy, how much, how restless is the fan base? How much does that do to their confidence? Coming in with a, you know, good, like, you know, renewed spirit, like does that knock it out of them. You know, the Penn State game could be another one, but, like, starting three and two, that's your goal. That's what you're hoping for. You hope they're competitive. And then that's where that UCLA kind of swing game becomes one of those. Must win for either one if you want to get that extra, like, you know, 8 and 4 type season for Wisconsin. Yeah.

Bud Elliott

Because if you start 3 and 2 and then you drop UCLA and then USC and then at Iowa, it could.

Chip Patterson

It could go sideways on you real

Bud Elliott

fast because then all of a sudden you're three and five.

Danny Cannell

Right.

Bud Elliott

So you may not get the chance to show your improvement if Fickle's fired, you know, by like the week after Halloween. Yeah, that's a really good point, Dan. When their potential wins come. But if they can steal one of. At Penn State or at ucla, like, that's. That's like. It's really that much better.

Danny Cannell

I think it's stealing one at Penn State. I think it's. UCLA is like, kind of like you have to win that game. Yeah. You know, I think.

Bud Elliott

I think they'd both be upsets of different magnitude. I.

Danny Cannell

Right.

Bud Elliott

I. I don't look at Penn State as, like, some awesome team. I think they could have an awesome record, and I think they're clearly a level above Wisconsin. But I think Penn State's, like, as far as team call, I think they're closer to Wisconsin than they are to, like, Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana.

Chip Patterson

Okay.

Bud Elliott

I don't know.

Chip Patterson

Maybe.

Bud Elliott

That's crazy.

Chip Patterson

Maybe. Maybe.

Bud Elliott

But could they get Tayton for sure. Like, what if Iowa's down? Right. Is USC actually trustworthy on the road? No, not particularly. So, yeah, I. I think they could do it.

Chip Patterson

Yeah. Need Colton Joseph to catch on. Need to. Need some of the portal additions to catch on. Just a lot of ins and outs, you know, that's. That's one of those where your trust in Wisconsin doesn't matter. Like, your trust in Wisconsin has to be on Luke Fickle and his staff's portal evaluations that the players who they got who are not awesome and are not nobodies are the right players.

Bud Elliott

Anywhere from like 5 and 7 to 9 and 3, I think, is, like, truly the range.

Danny Cannell

Yeah.

Bud Elliott

If they go 4 and 8, something has really badly happened.

Chip Patterson

I mean, at that point, then it's. The season's gone off the rails because there are four or five games in the back half of the schedule that are winnable, and you're hoping that you're using those to be able to build towards a potential 7 and 5, 8 and 4 finish instead of letting it slide the other way. All right, let's take it to the last thing too.

Danny Cannell

I mean, yes, last thing. On Wisconsin, they have had like schedule obviously has been brutal last couple years. They have had the worst quarterback injury luck maybe of anybody. Maybe. Was it four years in a row, three that they had a transfer quarterback come in with expectations and all of them have gotten hurt. So Colton Joseph hopefully can buck that trend.

Bud Elliott

Yep.

Chip Patterson

And great point from Joey. Colton Joseph did play against Indiana last year. Remember, ODU is a little. Yeah, frisky there. The opening weeks of the season. Purdue was two and ten last year. Their win totals at three and a half. I'm not seeing Purdue making the jump all the way up to like a 6, 7, 8 win team. Maryland was 4 and 8 last year. Their win totals at 5 and a half at DraftKings sportsbook. Michigan State 4 and 8, their win totals only set at 4 and a half for year one of the PAT Fitzgerald era. And even that is heavy juiced under. So 4 and 8 is sort of the projection from the odds makers. Again, nothing from the odds makers and nothing from me. I don't know about you all if you want to try and throw your chips behind any of those teams with low record or low win totals last year, but I think that it's probably going to be a little bit more of the same in each of those cases.

Bud Elliott

I think you've kind of picked off the ones there in the Big Ten who, since we've already discussed the ones that have the really favorable draw, the other teams you mentioned there do not. Yep, there you go.

Chip Patterson

That's why you see it. All right, Danny, what about in the Southeastern Conference? Cocky? Are we going cocky?

Danny Cannell

I have South Carolina on the list. I had three teams. I had South Carolina, Auburn and Florida were my. Yeah, but I probably would say the biggest candidate or the one I would feel most confident is South Carolina. Shane Beamer, I do think he has a strong culture that he's built. I think they're still there. Lenora Sellers still the potential guy at quarterback with Kendall Briles. You know, I feel like this team could come in under the radar, low expectations and exceed those potentially schedules manageable. You know, you want.

Chip Patterson

You're.

Danny Cannell

You know, I don't know. It's done. It's about as manageable as it gets in the sec. But they could start strong, kind of carry some of that momentum.

Bud Elliott

I like that they get their toughest opponents. No, no, for the most part on, on the road.

Danny Cannell

Yeah.

Bud Elliott

Okay.

Danny Cannell

But they still have some tough ones at home too.

Chip Patterson

Yeah. Texas A and M and Georgia both got to come to Columbia.

Danny Cannell

But think too even like the last couple years they played Alabama, pretty tough weather. Was home on the road, you know that's like Tennessee at home. Could they get that or A M at home. Could they get one of those two? That probably determines, you know.

Unidentified Guest

Yeah.

Danny Cannell

How close they are to a turnaround. I think they could.

Bud Elliott

What games are they really big dogs in? Alabama, Bama, Oklahoma, Georgia.

Danny Cannell

Yeah.

Bud Elliott

Since those two, the. The former two are on the road, like you could get Tennessee, you can get A and M. Van A M drops like falls back to earth a little bit which is possible.

Chip Patterson

You don't think Florida would be a touchdown favorite in Gainesville?

Bud Elliott

They probably are. Yeah. That's an easy one.

Chip Patterson

That, that's where I'm. I'm having trouble. I mean South Carolina is clearly the candidate and they're the candidate because they have shown competitiveness against some of the best teams in the SEC before. They've wound up on the wrong end of some, some one score games and they've got a talented quarterback and they've got talented pass rushers and you know they, they've got a lot of reasons to believe on paper that this is going to be a group that's not going to turn in another four and eight season. I'm just really, really struggling. I am really struggling to be able to say that this is going to be a group that's going to get to eight wins.

Bud Elliott

Thomas Demand in the chat thinks it's a ridiculous take by me that South Carolina won't be two touchdown underdogs or worse at home against A M. I

Danny Cannell

don't know if there will be any

Bud Elliott

of me 14 and a half on South Carolina right now. I'll take that for whatever you feel comfortable doing, buddy.

Danny Cannell

Yeah, like I would jump on board with that.

Bud Elliott

There's a lot.

Danny Cannell

Yeah.

Bud Elliott

Like we'll play for Danny's house. That's guys like there's a lot more compression in this thing.

Danny Cannell

Right.

Bud Elliott

I think they have to start 4 and 2. You have got to get the Mississippi State and Kentucky games in Columbia. If you start three and three then you go into the bi week.

Danny Cannell

Basically.

Bud Elliott

I think Beamer's coaching for his job against Tennessee at home.

Chip Patterson

Yeah.

Bud Elliott

If you drop that then then they're. Then he's probably fired. And then you got to go at Oklahoma host Texas A and M. That's all she wrote. So like you've got to get those two. Like Mississippi State and Kentucky are probably the two worst teams in the Southeastern Conference. Maybe Arkansas, depending on how you want to, you know, put it. Like if you don't beat those two in year five or six of Beamer at home.

Danny Cannell

Yeah, yeah. And to, to the thing about the two touchdown. I mean how many teams in the SEC in general on the road are going to be two touchdown favorites versus anybody but Arkansas, Mississippi State? You know, like it's the bottom. I mean there would be a few, but I mean the talent dispersal in the sec, it's been, it's been that it really is one of the deeper conferences. So I don't know how many teams that aren't named Georgia, Alabama or Texas are. Two touchdown fan. Maybe, maybe he's upset. Texas A M, you feel like they're in that category. But I think South Carolina, I, I'm with you, bud.

Chip Patterson

I, I think they improve their win total. I could see them. What's. Where, where do the 6 and 6 sec teams go right now? Where they go? Galveston? No, where. Where are the 66 SEC teams play their bowl games right now? That's, that's kind of. Is this a Liberty bowl situation? You're going to play against like Memphis in the Liberty Bowl? That's, that's kind of, that's kind of where, where I see this going for South Carolina, it's just too, it is to me too tough. You know, I get all this, I get excited about it and then I see at Alabama, at Florida, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Texas A and M, Georgia and then throw on the Clemson on there. I don't know, I just, I don't see it. But, but you told us on this. I think you were the first person in America to mention that the Florida Gators might be favored in 10 games against their 20, 26. It could be after the performance that they had last season that would very much make them a candidate. 4 and 8 last year and they are projected to see a big increase in wins this season. Year one for John Summerall. It is very much all of the buckets that we were putting last year's examples into. You are, check for the box for new head coach, Check for the box for new quarterback, Check for big portal class. And they were able to retain some of the best players there. So what is the ceiling? What is it, what is it going to look like for Florida? Do you think the Gators are the best candidate for the biggest number of win improvement?

Bud Elliott

I have them as the largest win improvement in the sec. Yeah, like Them first, Arkansas second, South Carolina third.

Chip Patterson

For me and Arkansas, by the way, that is to again a two intense scenario where like being able to get them, getting them to 5 and 7 would give them one of the bigger win improvements.

Bud Elliott

Right, exactly.

Chip Patterson

So for those who haven't listened yet, what. And then I want to get Danny on Auburn too before we hit another break. What about the Gators? Makes it. Makes it Advantageous for SummerAll's first year in the Swamp.

Bud Elliott

I think the start is incredibly friendly. I mean they have a. Not guaranteed certainly they have a real shot to start six and oh right. Like FAU Campbell at Auburn, a team which I think if you pay attention to the spending like clearly doesn't is not pushing the chips all in this year to win like a Texas or an LSU or you know, some of these other programs that have the new coaches, I think they realized that, you know they, they got some good guys from usf, they brought in a few other pieces. But I don't think like that won't be an easy game to go and play in Jordan Hare, but I don't think it's that tough. Missouri comes to town. Like if you look at what's happened to Missouri's win total since it got released, like everybody with a clue is dogpiling the under there. Like the line is beat up to the point now I was going to pick it on our win total show but like now I can't really. It's just been like all the values been beat out and then South Carolina in the Swamp. I think they're 5 and 1 or 6 0. Like Ole Miss comes to the Swamp too. Which I think Ole Miss, pretty good football team but like getting them at home probably helps. I think they have a real shot to be five and one in those first six which if you do that you're already over your win total last year.

Chip Patterson

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. With still with Kentucky, Vandy, Florida State as sort of your November landing spot. It's just playing three of the, you know, six teams from the SEC that have made the last one of the last two college football playoffs. When you go Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma and

Bud Elliott

that Georgia game is a neutral. But it's in Atlanta this year so it might as well be like at Texas, at Georgia, Oklahoma. But then you get Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Florida State, you know, three games that I definitely have them favored in.

Danny Cannell

Yeah.

Chip Patterson

Danny Denny see this the same way?

Danny Cannell

Yeah, I think, I think floor to ceiling is pretty much going to be determined by if they hit on the quarterback, you know, if Philos, the guy or Trent, whatever one they decide to go with if that, if he's somebody special. I would say top five quarterback in the SEC. I think they could be 10 wins. You know, I think they could be that surprise team and then, you know, challenging for the College Football playoff, even at 9 and 3. They might be depending on where those wins come from. But I think it is. A lot of it is dependent on how the quarterback goes.

Chip Patterson

Is there any chance it's not Philo and that they go with Jones?

Bud Elliott

I think there's some chance. Which gives me a little bit of pause.

Danny Cannell

Yeah, I don't, I don't love Jones.

Bud Elliott

I'm not saying he sucks, but like if Jones is the qb, I'm not like, yes, like let's, let's take them for the playoff.

Chip Patterson

It's like if you get Buster Faulkner and we get all hot and bothered about how awesome things have been under Buster Faulkner and Buster says this is my guy. You would like for his guy to then come and win the job.

Bud Elliott

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Chip Patterson

Interesting stuff. Florida. Oh yeah, Danny. And then on Auburn. Give me, give me, give me the Auburn pitch. Because this was not an awful season for Auburn, even as they did end up firing Q. Freeze and undergoing a coaching change. A lost season, undoubtedly, but, but a big win improvement would have them as like an eight win team, maybe nine win team. Is that.

Danny Cannell

Yeah, I think a win is the best case scenario I put. And I would lean towards Florida. Clearly they had four wins as opposed to five, so it's harder to make that jump for Auburn. But I think that Florida game is really interesting. I think it is at home. It'll be both, you know, first. Both first, first year coaches in their first SEC conference game. You know, the place is going to be rocking. I'm curious to see what Byron Brown does. I know their offensive line has issues, but can he kind of overpower people with some of the run game elements? I don't think he's going to be an elite thrower, but the dude has proven to be a winner. I think the defense was okay last year. They return a lot of pieces there and I, you know, if they start off four. No. Again, that Tennessee game gets very interesting. Could they steal that one potentially? I, I don't think I see them challenging nine wins the same way that I could for the Florida Gators. But again, if Florida misses on the quarterback, could they be 7 and 5 and Auburn 8 and 4? You know, a lot of it hinges on that, that Florida game, which I think what do you think the total. What do you think? Florida is a very, very small favorite in that game.

Bud Elliott

I have them as a small favorite. It wouldn't show. Like, there's a lot of people out there who like this Auburn team this year. Yeah.

Chip Patterson

Yeah.

Unidentified Guest

All right.

Chip Patterson

I was about to say, what. What do we think of this roster? Because this is a situation where if it was not Auburn and if they were not in the sec, you bring in basically a totally rebuilt offensive line of transfers who all have experience. Right. But they do not have that experience all playing together. They do not have that experience all playing for Alex Golish and being able to put all these things and make it all gel. I. I think I like the roster, but the continuity piece of this is really tough for me to get behind because, again, if Auburn played in a different conference, I maybe would not be as concerned because I would say, oh, well, you know, you got like, this game and this game, you've got some time to work out the kinks. You can kind of build up until you played the toughest conference game of the season in mid October. Like, man, it's. It's going to come fast and. And tough for this team. Do you like what Alex has put together in terms of the. The roster talent that he's got?

Bud Elliott

Not really, but I. I do think that, like, they retained some decent pieces from last year. I. I don't think the defense is better this year. I. I think the question is going to be, can the offensive improvement outpace what I think is some defensive regression for them?

Chip Patterson

And they keep DJ Durkin for those who don't, they keep DJ Durkin, but they lose so many. Like, they lose guys who open things up for everyone else. Like, other players had amazing seasons because Keltrick Falk existed in the world, you know, like, they got tackles and tackles for loss. Like, other players benefited from the double teams and the triple teams that Auburn's defensive line was commanding last season.

Bud Elliott

It's also so much like Michigan. It's hard to quantify this, but I think you'd be crazy to not think there's some bump they're going to get from not having, like, an absolute blank show behind the scenes. Right.

Chip Patterson

Right.

Bud Elliott

Like, I don't know if Goldash golfs, but I'm pretty sure he doesn't play as much as Hugh Freeze did. You know, you know, he.

Danny Cannell

And he.

Chip Patterson

I remember asking him. He was saying, blank show. I was thinking about blank in terms of what Hugh Freeze was contributing. You know, it's just like nothing.

Unidentified Guest

But.

Chip Patterson

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Danny Cannell

There was some serious, I mean, and some former players that were there and I know it's, you know, former players kind of trashing on the way out, but some guys that have talked about what the locker room environment was like, was not great. We had Golish on the radio a while back and I remember just, you know, when we were waiting because like, commercial break, we're coming back, two minutes. We're just like. I was like, hey, you playing golf? And I. It was not on air, so it wasn't like a shot or anything. He's like, nah, it's like, I don't know, I don't have time for golf. He's like, I suck. He's like, I don't play golf at all. So I don't think we have to worry about the tee time sheet. No.

Bud Elliott

Danny could very well be right about this one. They were what, zero and six in single score games last year.

Danny Cannell

Yeah.

Bud Elliott

You know, like it's, it's possible.

Chip Patterson

Singleton and other USF receivers coming with Brown. Right. You know, you. Yeah, but for me it's that offensive line totally just sort of. It looks like me on a night when I'm cleaning out the fridge, making a pasta sauce, you know, we're just throwing a lot of tomatoes and veggies in and we're just going to cook it all down and hopefully it comes out good. All right. Coming up on the other side, we turn our attention to the ACC, Big 12, group of six and more next. Back here on the COVID 3 podcast. Now, last season we saw Utah and Houston have some of the biggest win improvements. North Texas was another one. Well, we've got North Texas, coach. We've got the conference of those two team is the Big 12 where we're going to see some of the biggest win improvements across the country. Lots of candidates, a second year coach, a first year coach, and then yes, maybe even a 1, 2, 3, fourth year coach. All among the possibles. Danny, who's. Where would you like to turn the spotlight for the Big 12?

Danny Cannell

I think it's Oklahoma State. I don't think it's close. You know, I mean, obviously they have the low win total from last year. I think they should make significant improvement. I would probably say out of all of these teams, even going back to ucla, out of the power four, I would expect Oklahoma State to be the biggest jump of all the Power 4 schools.

Chip Patterson

1 in 11 a year ago gives you a lot of room for improvement. Their win total at DraftKings Sportsbook is six and a half heavy juice to the under. So really, oddsmakers sort of throwing out a projection of six and six right there. That would be a five win total. But can you take it one more? Can you get me to seven? Can you throw me a seven and five season? Because that's. Those are normally the kind of turnarounds that get you big headlines at the end of the year.

Bud Elliott

Sure. All right. You survived Tulsa in week one. You get Murray State, you get at least one of UC or UCF at, at West Virginia. So that gets me to three. You get Colorado, that's four. You get Iowa State, that's five. Then you get Kansas, that's six. And can you pull, can you, can you somehow pull one of Arizona at Arizona State, at Kansas State, at Houston?

Chip Patterson

Yeah, that's how it's done.

Bud Elliott

Assuming you're not going to beat Texas Tech at home, I think, I think

Danny Cannell

you could get both West Virginia and ucf.

Bud Elliott

I think that's possible.

Chip Patterson

Yeah.

Danny Cannell

Yeah. I mean, I don't like that. I think that's not crazy either. Get one of those wins, those extra ones, too.

Chip Patterson

But I also think West Virginia and UCF are good turnaround candidates.

Danny Cannell

Right?

Bud Elliott

Yeah.

Chip Patterson

You know.

Danny Cannell

Yeah.

Chip Patterson

I, I mean, Scott Frost sounds really, really happy with Alonza Barnett right now. Kind of a quiet confidence. They are five and seven a year ago, so I'm not projecting that they're going to be flirting with like 10, 11 wins, but I think that they are going to be better. West Virginia, you know, you get there with Michael Hawkins and Cam Cook. We sort of talked about that a little bit last year.

Bud Elliott

Is it.

Chip Patterson

I mean, the Shocker Big 12 has a great opportunity for turnaround candidates. I just don't know which one it's necessarily going to be. Forget the turnaround number. Who do you like out of those three? Ucf, ucf, West Virginia, ucf, West Virginia, Oklahoma State. Just quality.

Bud Elliott

I think they're all pretty similar. If Barnett is actually healthy.

Chip Patterson

Are you worried about the rest of Oklahoma State's roster?

Bud Elliott

I think they'll be like, very competent. I worry about the ceiling, but they clearly have like, the best quarterback of those three. Like, mester maker does get some like, real NFL buzz, right?

Danny Cannell

He's legit.

Chip Patterson

I was just wondering about how much of that can truly be copied and pasted to team success and how much of that's just going to make it really easy to talk about Oklahoma State in the preseason, you know?

Bud Elliott

Yeah.

Chip Patterson

Are we. Are we said don't worry about everything behind the curtains. Check out big ass drew messamaker. 6 foot 9 and you know, like all this arm talent and all this NFL buzz, you know, just. What about everything else that's back there? That's, that's kind of what a lot

Bud Elliott

of pieces over from what was a really good North Texas offense. I agree, I agree.

Chip Patterson

All right, what else, who else would you like to to spotlight in the Big 12?

Bud Elliott

I think Kansas State.

Chip Patterson

What's the ceiling?

Bud Elliott

10 and 2?

Chip Patterson

Yeah, about a four wind jump, right? They six and six last year or.

Bud Elliott

Yeah, I mean like if you pull up their schedule, it's really very friendly. I, I think they have to really cash this in and have a big year if Colin Klein is going to get off on the right foot there. I mean, how long into the season are they undefeated?

Chip Patterson

Like October.

Bud Elliott

They, they in theory. I mean they don't play Texas Tech, they don't play byu and they don't play Utah. You got to go to Arizona State, you got to go to tcu. You host Houston,

Chip Patterson

man, I mean, gosh, I think that's 12 and oh, you know, deck me down in purple. There's not a single game that Kansas State can't win.

Bud Elliott

Like the non con is cake, I

Chip Patterson

think especially given 2 lanes total roster reboot.

Danny Cannell

Yep. Yes.

Bud Elliott

Tulane's win total is down to what, seven? Where'd you get was a little higher earlier. Just a bit like they, I don't think they will go 12, 0. Yeah, I do think if like, if they hit like their 90th percentile projection and they're like the best that you could possibly get out of this Kansas state roster, like 12 and O could be in play. Okay,

Chip Patterson

what about what is West Virginia's ceiling? Because I think West Virginia is a six win team minimum. I don't know if I'm ready to take them to eight because the tough is if you want to take them to like seven or eight wins, if you want to get to the point where Rich Rodriguez has really improved this thing by four wins or more after four and eight, then you're going to need some upsets along the way. Like you're going to need the season to slide off the rails for a road trip against a quality team like a tcu, Texas Tech or Utah. But all those other teams still got to come to Morgantown. What's the ceiling here?

Bud Elliott

They could start five and two. They could also start three and four. But like I, I think they could start five and two. I mean, I, I think Iowa State is the worst team in the Power 4. You get Virginia at home, you Get Oklahoma State at home, you get Arizona at home, your first roadie is at Iowa State. And then you host Cincinnati. Like that's. Where's their bye week before they go to Tech? Okay. So at least, I mean, I don't think they're going to win at TCU or at Texas Tech, but it's not insane to think that a Sunny Dykes team could, could drop a second half game of the season. And then you get Kansas, Houston and at Utah. Like at Utah is pretty tough, but I could see eight if they really play well.

Chip Patterson

Yeah, that'd be a little bit crazy. Anybody else in the Big 12? We want to make sure we have Colorado. You mentioned them earlier. I think they're a 5 and 17. I just don't know if they're going to be after three and nine. I don't know if they're jumping up to like six, seven, eight wins until we at least see. I'm not ready to make that statement yet. At least until we see everything really start to play out on the field.

Bud Elliott

I think, like, they're a much more narrow range as far as team quality this year. Like, they stopped chasing all the really high upside guys and they went and got a bunch of guys who were just like solid to very good football players at the lower level. So I think there's. Their floor is raised a lot and I question like the overall talent on the team. Right. But I do think they're, they should be like a lot more competent this year, I would think.

Chip Patterson

Yep, I'd agree with that. What about our beloved acc? A lot of candidates in terms of teams that didn't win a lot last year. Boston College was 2 and 10, Syracuse was 3 and 9, Virginia Tech was 3 and 9, North Carolina was 4 and 8 and the Stanford Cardinal were 4 and 8. We've got new head coaches, of course, at Virginia Tech and Stanford among those groups. Year two for Bill Belichick at North Carolina, Bill o' Brien and Bill o' Brien continuing to look for some kind of upside. I mean, if he can, if, if he can go out there and find it, where's. Where's the most. Oh, is it easy? Is it just.

Bud Elliott

I only have one team and it's only Virginia Tech. Yes.

Danny Cannell

Yeah. I mean, they. And like Virginia Tech, we can talk about them obvious reasons. What James Franklin brings in brings a competent quarterback and Ethan Grunkemeyer, who I really like. You know, keeping your defensive coordinator, I think that's going to help a lot. Keeping the former continuity from a former head coach. But outside of that, I felt like I was really having to talk myself into finding another team on there, which is bad news because the ACC needs to develop some depth, you know, and the bottom tier teams do not look like they've made much of a significant improvement.

Chip Patterson

The bottom tier feels heavier in the acc.

Danny Cannell

You mean like an anchor, like dragging you down?

Chip Patterson

Yeah.

Danny Cannell

Yes.

Chip Patterson

You know, I don't love that for my beloved Atlanta Conference, but that is the way it see and it's just like there's not a lot of upward momentum. There's not a lot of going through and getting excited about it. Like I, the close closest I came was trying to tell myself that Steve Angelli being healthy was like a reason for me to say, you know what? Last year was an aberration because they were playing a fourth string lacrosse player at quarterback. Steve Angeli is a good quarterback, a certified talented quarterback. He comes back, he's fully healthy. We've seen Fran Brown take Syracuse and have them all the way to winning nine or ten games. You know, their, their win total again is four and a half. So the odds makers are not, not out here projecting it, but Syracuse might be the only other one that I could see doing that. Outside.

Bud Elliott

When you have those really low total teams from last year, like the possibility already exists, right?

Chip Patterson

I don't know if it exists for

Bud Elliott

Stanford, like Arkansas, you know, in the SEC I had Arkansas as one of mine because they only won two. Right. You know, it's not that hard to go from two to four for the most, most part. It's like, could Boston College catch some people? In theory, maybe.

Chip Patterson

But If I'm setting 4 to 6 as my target, I just don't, I don't have Boston College from 2 and 10 to a bowl.

Bud Elliott

I would agree.

Chip Patterson

And that's the thing that I think speaks to the disappointment of the anchor where you're like, man, I wish they were even. I wish this wasn't such an auto W or an auto L, you know?

Bud Elliott

Yeah.

Chip Patterson

If the only reason that we're talking about this on a Saturday night is because something went horribly for someone else, right? No, not that it's a great opportunity, but a lot to learn from the rest of that conference. All right, if we open it up full. Couple minutes left. Thanks for hanging late. Couple minutes left. Anybody across the country that you would look at in terms of group of six? We did have those win totals coming out or not the win totals, the win counts and the win improvements out of Kennesaw State, North Texas, San Diego State and Southern Miss last year.

Bud Elliott

I mean so if we think North Texas, JMU, Yukon and Tulane combine to be like 10 to 15 wins worse, then who in those leagues are going to pick up more, right? I think Liberty makes a lot of sense. I kind of think Georgia State like the only one. Yes, the only one last year. You know, Marshall should be better. I think Southern Miss takes a big step back unfortunately.

Chip Patterson

All right. Air Force. I know I talked to the JV team last year but they are going to be better. They. They are going to be better.

Unidentified Guest

I.

Chip Patterson

This is, this is a team air force that one year ago they were 4 and 8. And another thing to keep in mind, their schedule got easier. Definitely Mountain west teams that have left the Mountain west to go start to go be in the PAC12 have created a situation for the existing Mountain west teams. Air Force of course included here for the a chance to improve their win Total at DraftKings sportsbook is seven and a half. You were four and eight last year. I could see this as an opportunity for, for the Plains to be able to, to take a big step forward. See you mentioned that one. Fau, Danny, we got any, any. We're going to check in in Boca with our guys at Kitley anytime soon.

Danny Cannell

I, I did talk to him earlier this spring. Kaden felt camp. I know he really likes him coming back. The thing I worry about with FAU is the jump to the American Conference. It's just. It's going to take a while to get the resources matched up with everybody else, you know. But I mean I could see them improving to making a bowl from going four wins to six, possibly seven.

Chip Patterson

Yeah, that's. I think that that's what I'm looking for out of fau. Is, is the American Athletic. You, you mentioned if Tulane's taking a step back. Let's say let's throw South Florida's taking a step back, right? If some of the team, North Texas has taken a step back. If the American Athletic Conference is kind of all thrown up in the air right now because of the coaching changes at the top tier of the way the league was set up last year. Can an offensive minded coach in a part of the country where like you can go out there and you can play with tempo, can you get all the pieces to fit together? They were. Let's see, where's my notes? FAU they were 4 and 8 last season. DraftKings sportsbook win total of 5 and a half with an over minus 160. Odds makers calling for a bowl. In that sense you Know, six and six. Do you think you could take it to seven?

Bud Elliott

I think you could, yeah.

Chip Patterson

Okay.

Bud Elliott

In that league, last one here, UMass, which had zero wins last year.

Chip Patterson

Yeah, I had that in Sam Houston as the deep dark corner. Where's Take. Take me into the dungeon. Tell me, tell me. You were the one who told me about UMass's secondary injury issues.

Bud Elliott

Oh, that was crazy.

Chip Patterson

Yeah. So how is the health of the current UMass Minutemen football team? Are we concerned yet? Is our threat level? Paul Revere. The British are coming. Okay.

Bud Elliott

I. I do think, like, UMass could. They could win four or five potentially. Like the schedule. Just eyeballing, it looks like a lot easier. Oh, we have. We have a UMass schedule. Let's go.

Chip Patterson

Yeah. All right, so the win total at DraftKings sportsbook for the UMass Minuteman in 2026 is two and a half with an over at minus 146. A reminder, as Bud mentioned, they went 0 and 12 last season, so can we get three wins? I mean, four wins would make it one of the bigger win improvements of the entire. All right, so they're playing Rutgers.

Bud Elliott

No Sam Houston, you could get at home. Is that Sacred Heart, the logo there?

Chip Patterson

I mean, that would make sense. The other one is Sacramento State, which.

Bud Elliott

Which is on the road, but you could absolutely get.

Chip Patterson

And I think Sacramento State is paying for it. Or is that Northern Illinois that's paying for everybody to visit them. One of those out of geographic footprint schools.

Bud Elliott

Right.

Chip Patterson

Is paying for everybody else's travel costs, which I. I didn't. I thought that was very hospitable. How kind.

Bud Elliott

And then Eastern Michigan's probably a no. Eastern looks pretty good this year. Miami Ohio is probably a no. They look pretty good. Buffalo, you could get. Yukon, you could certainly get. I think.

Chip Patterson

Oh, the SHU is Sacred Heart.

Bud Elliott

No, I think that's Sam Houston.

Danny Cannell

Yeah, that's Sam. That's Sam Houston. Oh, no, wait.

Bud Elliott

This is from the UMass website.

Danny Cannell

That's sacred Heart underneath it.

Bud Elliott

But I think that's what here. Does somebody in the chat know this? Like, I. I feel like I'm pretty good with logos, but. Stone Hill. Excuse me, Stone Hill. All right, so they're going to start one and two, unless they lose a Sacred Heart, which would be a problem. And then, I mean, Ball State at home. Okay, like, you could, in theory get that Toledo on the road, probably not Akron at home. You don't think Acker could go lose at UMass on a Nov. 18 ball game? Apple and green like I had?

Chip Patterson

I mean, Vibes alone. Like, only with the idea that Eddie George is the head coach and they found. What was our mascot last year, Wasn't it the cat? Remember Bowling Green?

Bud Elliott

Oh, yes. With the guy with the TikTok videos.

Chip Patterson

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Like, if Vibes alone, I was like, where could Bowling Green get. They were 4 and 8 last year, and I just, I wasn't going to take it much higher than like 6 and 6, you know, which could be good, right? Those are building blocks. Those are win improvements. But life in the Mac is a little too tough for me to be ready to stick my neck out on this one. One last from the group of six that I'll throw. Jamarcus Shepard is the new head coach at Oregon State. I've always thought he was a pretty good position coach. Last year they had bad luck. Last year they were 2 in 10. I. I think they're going to win a lot more than two games. Got a tough, tough schedule in the Pac12. Tough schedule. But for Oregon State, that's another team that I was looking at. Especially who were on the low end one year where it's like, yeah, I could see them being 4 and 8, 5 and 7, maybe even flirting with a bowl game by the end of the season.

Bud Elliott

I like that they get most of their tough conference games on the road, which means they have more winnable games coming to Corvallis.

Chip Patterson

Also important to remember for the win totals discussion, the Pac12 win totals, check your book to see what they are going to be settled by. This is a very inside, inside sports gambling little tip. But because we've got that flex game on the weekend of November 28, some books, the way that I understand it, are pricing in a win total, even not knowing the opponent.

Unidentified Guest

Really?

Chip Patterson

Yeah. And some books are saying it will only be settled after 11 games. So saying over three and a half wins for Oregon State, the way that I understand it is to say that they will win four of their 11 games and it won't be settled. It'll be settled. Then other books might extend it all the way out to 12.

Bud Elliott

Oh, shoot. I got Texas Tech summer school.

Chip Patterson

We will be back on Wednesday where, among other things, we're going to get to bring to light something that Bud caught. Because as we were going through the DraftKings sportsbook, we saw that DraftKings is offering win totals matchups. That's right. And do you know what the most interesting one is, Danny? They've got Virginia Tech against Penn State. Ooh, Penn State minus two and a half wins against Virginia tech and that's the way you got to think about it. So what we are going to do is we're going to be breaking down the win total matchups on Wednesday. Additionally, when we go live, it will be right as the conclusion of Commissioner Jim Phillips finishing his opening remarks. There's anything newsworthy or that we want to react to from ACC media days day one. We will try to package that into Thursday's show. But Wednesday when we go live, Commissioner Phillips will be done with his opening comments. We'll start with those. Then we'll go into the win totals, matchups and you can follow him on Twitter at Danny Canal. You can follow me at Chips Underscore Patterson Danny, thank you very much.

Danny Cannell

See you.

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