Freakonomics Radio | Episode: "Are You Ready for a Fresh Start? (Update)"

Host: Stephen J. Dubner
Guests: Katie Milkman, Heng Chen Dai, Andy Byford, Bob Tewksbury, Ferdinand Rauch
Date: December 30, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the concept of the "fresh start effect"—the tendency for people to pursue goals and behavior change following landmark moments (like New Year's Day, birthdays, or major life events). Host Stephen Dubner speaks with behavioral scientists, transportation leaders, and others to unpack both the promise and limitations of using a fresh start to drive self-improvement. The episode draws on updated research and personal stories to explore when and why new beginnings work—and when they quickly fizzle.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. New Year’s Resolutions & The "Fresh Start" Concept

• Introduction: The episode frames the new year as a classic "fresh start" moment, with approximately half of Americans making resolutions to break bad habits or build new ones. (02:11)
• Common Resolutions: Listeners share humorous and ambitious resolutions, ranging from "showering every 36 hours" to reading 25 books or reducing fossil fuel consumption. (03:12–04:09)
• Why January 1st? Behavioral scientist Katie Milkman explains that beginnings, like New Year’s, inspire optimism about change. But fresh starts also accompany any disruptive event: birthdays, new jobs, moves, even societal challenges like the pandemic. (04:15–04:41)

Notable Quote:

Katie Milkman (04:41):
"All of these things are fresh starts and give us that same sense that we have a new beginning, a new chapter opening in our lives."

2. The "Fresh Start Effect"—What Science Says

• Defining the Effect:
  • Fresh starts trigger two key psychological shifts:
    (1) The "old me" is left behind; (2) People reflect more on the big picture and their goals. (04:50–05:11)
• Origins:
  • Milkman and colleagues coined "the fresh start effect" in 2014, probing why and how people leverage these moments for change—and how little academic attention the topic had received. (06:32)

Notable Quote:

Stephen Dubner (06:09):
"But in academia, as Katie Milkman found, the fresh start concept hadn’t received all that much attention."

3. The Limits of Fresh Starts

• Resolution Success Rates:
  • A Swedish study reported a 55% success rate for resolutions, but Milkman critiques the methodology, arguing that more rigorous studies suggest success rates as low as 8%. (08:46–10:28)
  • Despite low rates, pursuing goals is still worthwhile—"You miss 100% of the shots you never take." (10:43)
• Why New Behaviors Don’t Stick:
  • The motivational boost from a fresh start fades quickly. Sustainable behavior change requires more tools than just a burst of resolve. (11:55–12:06)

Notable Quote:

Katie Milkman (11:55):
"It’s not a one-and-done solution. You don’t just need a little more motivation. There’s all these obstacles to change, and we need a set of tools that tackle all of them, not just that momentary motivation if we want to change daily decisions."

4. How to Harness Fresh Starts

• Behavioral Nudges:
  • Experiments show people are more likely to begin new goals at "fresh start" times—even when prompted artificially (e.g., beginning of spring, birthdays, Mondays vs. first of the month). (11:15–14:24)
  • Changing environments (like moving or travel) provide disruption to routines, creating opportunity for new habits—but can also be destabilizing. (14:24–15:55)

5. Real-World Stories of Forced and Chosen Fresh Starts

Andy Byford: Fresh Starts Across Continents and Crises

• Background: Byford, public transit executive, transformed systems in Sydney, Toronto, and New York—with each job a fresh start that "energizes" him. (18:16–19:08)
• Overhauling NYC Subways:
  • Arrived in the aftermath of a crisis, developed a $40 billion modernization plan, improved on-time performance, and became the folk hero "Train Daddy." (20:08–20:54)
• Unwanted Fresh Start:
  • Bureaucratic downsizing and political clashes led to his resignation—just before COVID shutdowns. (21:23–22:17)
• COVID-Induced Reset:
  • Stranded in the UK by travel bans, Byford seized the opportunity to run London's Transport for London during the pandemic—another disruptive, forced fresh start for both him and the transit system. (22:56–23:58)
• Reflection:
  • The pandemic is both crisis and opportunity to "reflect upon the way you’ve always done things." (24:39)

Notable Quote:

Andy Byford (24:39):
"One of my mantras in life is there's always opportunity in adversity, and I'd certainly say that's the case for the pandemic, because you can take the opportunity to reflect upon the way you’ve always done things."

6. When Fresh Starts Are Imposed: Lessons from London Tube Strikes

• Economist Ferdinand Rauch’s Study:
  • A two-day Tube strike forced thousands of London commuters to try new routes—5% stuck with their new (better) routes even after the strike ended. (25:23–26:25)
• Implication:
  • Sometimes reluctance to break routine means we miss out on better options until a disruption forces our hand.

7. The Double-Edged Sword of Resets: New Research

Lab Experiments on Resets

• Heng Chen Dai’s work: Found that interruption and resetting performance scores in experiments benefited those who were doing poorly but harmed those having early success. (33:45–39:00)

Natural Experiment—Baseball Player Trades

• MLB Research:
  • When baseball players are traded across leagues, their season stats "reset." For poor performers, the reset sparked improvement; for strong performers, it often caused a slump. (39:00–39:41)
• Bob Tewksbury’s Perspective:
  • Former big league pitcher confirms: if you’re struggling, a trade feels like a fresh start. If you’re thriving, the disruption has a psychological cost. (41:23–42:05)
  • Personal story: Some moves ("living with the Smiths") were destabilizing, while others led to peak performance. (42:16–43:11)

Notable Quote:

Bob Tewksbury (41:23):
"If you're below the league average and you get traded...You get out of the gate and you're three for your first 10 and you're hitting .300. And psychologically, you feel better."

8. Generalizing Fresh Starts: For Whom and When Do They Work?

• Habits and Flexibility:
  • Studies found that rigid routines don’t necessarily lead to better habit formation—flexibility is crucial since life is "a mess." (30:18–31:18)
• Universality:
  • Katie Milkman argues that everyone struggles with self-control, discipline, or forgetfulness, regardless of achievement or routine—fresh start techniques are for everyone. (32:12–32:35)
• Disruption can spoil habits:
  • Even positive habit interventions can be wiped out by disruptions, like holidays. (33:00–33:27)

9. When NOT to Seek a Fresh Start

• Beware the Downside:
  • For those already succeeding, resets can be harmful—a disruption, not an opportunity. (39:41)
• Golf Example:
  • Turning 50 and joining golf’s Senior Tour functions as a potential positive reset for some; suggests areas for future research. (44:19–44:57)

10. Embracing the Mulligan: Second Chances & Self-Compassion

• Mulligans for Real Life:
  • Milkman suggests taking a "mulligan" (free do-over) for pandemic years—accept setbacks, then use fresh starts with self-kindness. (45:12)

Notable Quote:

Katie Milkman (45:12):
"I think we should all take a Mulligan for 2020 and probably the first half of 2021. Yes, it’s a mess...everybody should cut themselves some slack and jump on the fresh start bandwagon when things start looking up."

Listener Resolutions & Final Thoughts

• Listeners shared resolutions ranging from practical ("stay off Facebook", "no online shopping") to aspirational ("be more stoic", "compose a melody every day"). (46:05–46:31)
• Ending on a personal note: Former guest Andy Byford declares he’s giving up booze, cheese, and bread for Lent, calling it "a nightmare." (48:09)

Memorable Moments & Quotes with Timestamps

• "My New Year’s resolution is to give myself a frickin’ break." —Listener (03:12)
• "It’s not a one and done solution...There’s all these obstacles to change." —Katie Milkman (11:55)
• "One of my mantras in life is there’s always opportunity in adversity." —Andy Byford (24:39)
• "If you’re below the league average and you get traded...psychologically, you feel better." —Bob Tewksbury (41:23)
• "I think we should all take a Mulligan for 2020 and probably the first half of 2021." —Katie Milkman (45:12)

Key Timestamps

• [02:11] – Why New Year’s inspires so much “fresh start” energy
• [04:41] – Fresh start effect explained
• [08:46-10:28] – Are resolutions successful? The evidence
• [13:21] – Experiments: Fresh start timing and effectiveness
• [18:16] – Andy Byford’s career as a series of fresh starts
• [25:23] – Lessons from London’s Tube strike
• [33:45-39:41] – Resets: who they help and who they harm
• [45:12] – Milkman on the power of a mulligan

Takeaways for Listeners

• Fresh starts are real but limited: They can help launch behavior change, but sustaining new habits takes more than just a clean slate.
• Disruption can be opportunity—or a setback: Forced changes (like pandemics or job transitions) can end bad routines and start good ones, but those already succeeding should beware unintended negative resets.
• Self-compassion is crucial: Don’t get discouraged by failure; everyone struggles. Sometimes, everyone needs a “mulligan.”
• Capitalize on real-life fresh starts: Use beginnings—of weeks, jobs, or environments—as levers for change, but be prepared with tools beyond just motivation.

Further Reading

• Katie Milkman’s book: How to Change
• “The Fresh Start Effect” research papers
• Studies by Heng Chen Dai on resets

This summary captures the spirit, insights, and charm of Freakonomics Radio’s investigation into new beginnings for anyone curious about the science—and humanity—behind change.