Prof G Markets — “Scott Galloway’s Predictions for 2026”

Date: January 5, 2026
Hosts: Scott Galloway, Ed Elson, Claire Miller
Podcast Network: Vox Media

Episode Overview

In this first episode of the new year, Scott Galloway lays out his bold predictions for capital markets, AI, media, and the evolving technology landscape in 2026. The discussion is a wide-ranging examination of shifting market powers, the fate of tech giants, societal impacts of emerging tech, and the capital forces shaping our daily lives. Ed Elson prompts Scott for detail and counterpoints, while Claire Miller offers reflections on the show’s growth and her perspectives behind the scenes.

Reflections on Podcasting and Show Growth

[06:10–10:59]

• Scott reflects on shifting personal motivations, moving away from maximizing money toward impact, influence, and meaningful work.
• Podcast’s success: Prof G Markets is described as “growing faster” than any other property at the network. Scott praises Ed and Claire for taking the show daily:

  “You and Claire have… killed it. You guys are what I mean, you've won a bunch of awards in addition to your 30 under 30. Jesus. What has the podcast won?” — Scott Galloway [08:18]

• Awards: The show has won major industry accolades, including the Webby and Signal Award.
• Team reflection:

  “It's been a really rewarding year… It's been a year of hard work, but it hasn't been a hard year.” — Claire Miller [09:51]

• Strategic outlook: Scott sees an opportunity to overtake legacy business media, highlighting CNBC’s “dead” audience:

  “The average age of a CNBC viewer is like, dead. Our listeners? 34, and that's where all the money is.” — Scott Galloway [07:49]

Scott Galloway’s 2026 Predictions: In-Depth Breakdown

1. AI Stocks Correct: China’s Role in the Coming Shakeup

[12:17–14:28]

• China prepared to “dump” AI models—Scott foresees China leveraging its lower-cost, increasingly competitive AI models to destabilize U.S. AI market valuations.
• Comparative value: Chinese models deliver “90% of OpenAI/Anthropic for 30% of the price.”
• Strategic risk:

  “If I were advising Xi, I’d go for the jugular and start dumping AI into the U.S. with open-weight, less expensive models. I believe they're already starting.” — Scott Galloway [13:15]

• Expect valuations for current AI leaders to come sharply under pressure.

2. Data Center Bubble Will Burst

[14:28–17:53]

• Scott criticizes the disconnect between announced data centers and real builds. He likens recent projections as “signaling as opposed to actual construction.”
• Gigantic bottlenecks: Cites multi-year wait for necessary power connections; “250 nuclear plants would be needed” to energize projected data demand—an “unrealistic” expectation.
• Broader market effect: Predicts a pop in the “data storage hysteria,” leading to higher electricity prices for middle-class households and a likely government bailout framed as “strategic investment.”

3. Nvidia & OpenAI Duopoly Under Siege

[18:12–21:46]

• Prediction: The two leaders’ dominance will erode as competition from tech giants (Amazon, Google, Meta) and China intensifies.
• Market cap unsustainable:

  “Nvidia’s market cap is greater than Costco, Bank of America, IBM, Palantir, Exxon Mobil, Walmart, Netflix, Oracle, Home Depot, and Salesforce combined. I don’t think that’s sustainable.” — Scott Galloway [19:24]

• Product angle: Nvidia’s GPU costs are double those of competitors’ offerings.
• Historical parallel: Compares Nvidia to Intel’s late ‘90s dominance and subsequent decline.

4. Big Tech Stock Pick 2026: Amazon

[24:13–27:51]

• Why Amazon? Scott forecasts margin expansion, especially in retail, due to robotics and AI-driven efficiency gains.
• Robotics lead:

  “Amazon has a million operational robots versus the rest of the nation’s 400,000… They could double retail revenue by 2032 with no increase in employees.” — Scott Galloway [25:10]

• Valuation: Amazon is trading at historical lows relative to its earnings power and long-term growth prospects.
• Despite prior enthusiasm for Google/Alphabet, Scott pivots to Amazon this year.

5. Space as the Next Big Sector

[28:18–30:17]

• "Space is tech of the year”—More attention, capital, and unicorn potential will shift to launch & satellite industries, especially SpaceX.
• Monopoly:

  “We at SpaceX have 90% of literally everything else [in space].” — Scott Galloway [29:01]

• Space defense and “hauling” will drive the market, not space tourism.

6. Biggest Crony Capitalist Windfall: TikTok US Sell-Off

[30:23–32:41]

• Political deal: Trump’s administration “forces China to sell TikTok to a group of Republican donors,” a move Scott decries as socialism for the rich:

  “They’re getting a 4.5x on their investment from day zero… This will be the easiest way that any group of people have made $100 billion in 12 months.” — Scott Galloway [31:25]

• Regulatory inertia: Even if Democrats return to power, Scott doubts much will be reversed—"so fucking old that they just don't understand it."

7. Short Form Video & AI Reshape Hollywood

[32:41–36:28]

• Theatrical movie business “never came back” after COVID; off 30–40%.
• Short-form video creators (e.g., Kids Diana Show) have more subscribers than Disney.
• New platforms and formats will “erode share from streaming, but especially movies.”

  “Sometimes it’s darkest before it’s pitch black… We’re just gonna see sequel after sequel after sequel.” — Scott Galloway [36:11]

8. Waymo Speeds Ahead in Autonomy

[36:28–38:12]

• Dominating autonomous rides: “9 million rides vs. Tesla’s sub-100,000."
• Distribution winner: Uber is poised to benefit as an “agnostic” platform layering autonomous tech from multiple providers.

9. Humanoid Robots: Today’s Segway

[38:12–40:29]

• Overhyped & impractical: Scott calls humanoid robots “weapons of mass distraction” and predicts their utility will fall far short of hype.

• “The last fucking thing I want in my home is a robot traipsing around. It's just so ridiculous.” — Scott Galloway [38:33]

• Not investment-worthy: Overestimates consumer demand; the analogy is to “segway, not Tesla.”

10. The Rise (and Risk) of Prediction Markets & Gambling

[41:49–45:36]

• Prediction markets as “vice of the year”:

  “Why be in Vegas when Vegas is in you?” — Scott Galloway [43:51]

• Explosive growth of platforms like Kalshi; massive societal risks—higher bankruptcy, domestic violence, addiction, and suicide rates.
• Young men especially at risk, mistaking gambling for enterprising risk-taking.

11. Synthetic Relationships Will Surge—With Real Social Costs

[45:41–48:56]

• Loneliness crisis among both youth and elderly fueling demand for AI companions.
• Benefits for seniors but “should be age-gated”—high prevalence among teens is deeply concerning.

• “Big tech wants to evolve a new species of asocial, asexual males… These things are really seductive.” — Scott Galloway [47:23]

• Organic relationships are “the most rewarding and stabilizing thing in life.”

12. The ‘College is Dead’ Narrative Collapses

[49:01–53:29]

• Scott slams the notion that college is obsolete as “bullshit.”
• While perception of value has dropped, actual enrollment and economic data say otherwise—college grads still far outperform others in income, marriage rates, health, and life outcomes.

• “Assume you are not Mark Zuckerberg.” — Scott Galloway [51:24]

• Noted increase in Southern and public school enrollments, but condemns ivory-tower elitism and unchecked tuition hikes.

Final Reflection: On Risk, Youth, and Human Connection

[53:47–55:53]

• Scott advises listeners—especially young men—to be risk-averse with money, but “much more risk aggressive” with time and relationships.

• “Take more risks outside the house, less on your screen. Nothing wonderful will happen to you without taking risks—but there are good risks and bad risks.” — Scott Galloway [54:42]

Memorable Quotes with Timestamps

• “China is just going to dump massive AI into the market and crash our market or force a correction in the valuation of these companies.” — Scott Galloway [13:18]
• “Nvidia’s market cap is greater than Costco, Bank of America, Palantir, Exxon… combined. I don’t think that’s sustainable.” — Scott Galloway [19:26]
• “We’re basically punching out into the market a group of adults who have attention spans of two to three minutes… sometimes it’s darkest before it’s pitch black [for movies].” — Scott Galloway [35:11, 36:11]
• “Take more risks by getting out of the house and approaching strangers and expressing friendship and romantic interest. That’s where risk needs to really increase.” — Scott Galloway [54:44]

Additional Noteworthy Moments

• Scott jokes about true crime podcasts, celebrates the show’s Spotify minutes, and shares humorous asides about podcast listening habits and his affection for The Daily’s host.
• “Amazon is the Ford of the 21st century.” [25:22]
• “Why be in Vegas when Vegas is in you?” [43:51]
• Claire admits she “doesn’t listen to a lot of podcasts” [03:28], and Ed jokes his main consumption is “listening to himself.”

Key Timestamps for Major Segments

• Podcast Reflection/Awards: 06:10–10:58
• AI Market Correction: 12:17–14:28
• Data Center Bubble: 14:28–17:53
• Nvidia/OpenAI Duopoly: 18:12–21:46
• Big Tech Stock: Amazon: 24:13–27:51
• Space Tech: 28:18–30:17
• TikTok Sell-off: 30:23–32:41
• Hollywood Decline: 32:41–36:28
• Waymo & Autonomy: 36:28–38:12
• Humanoid Robots Critique: 38:12–40:29
• Shorting Tesla: 40:10–41:20
• Prediction Markets: 41:49–45:36
• Synthetic Relationships: 45:41–48:56
• College Value: 49:01–53:29
• Risk & Human Connection: 53:47–55:53

Tone and Style

Clever, fast-paced, and irreverent, but grounded in sharp analysis and data. Scott’s confidence blends with humor and a willingness to challenge conventional wisdom; Ed and Claire balance him with probing questions and industry context.

Summary Takeaway

Scott Galloway identifies 2026 as a year of disruption and reckoning in tech, business, and society. From AI valuation shocks to the growing force of synthetic relationships, Scott recommends vigilance for investors—and for everyone else, the wisdom to focus risk-taking on real-life relationships, not speculative bets. The episode is packed with actionable analysis, candid outlooks, and trademark Prof G wit.