Prof G Markets – "War With Iran Is Rewriting Global Markets"
March 16, 2026 – LIVE at South by Southwest
Hosts: Scott Galloway & Ed Elson
Vox Media Podcast Network
OVERVIEW
This episode, recorded live at SXSW, explores the seismic impact of the U.S./Iran war on global financial markets, America’s evolving relationships with key regions, and the future of AI according to tech leaders. Scott Galloway and Ed Elson break down capital flows, market vulnerabilities, and geopolitical aftershocks, and field live audience questions on AI regulation, fatherhood, and empowering the next generation in a tech-altered economy.
MAIN THEMES
- How the War with Iran is Rewriting Global Markets
- U.S. Economic Advantages and Global Repercussions
- The Role of Trust, Alliances, and “Fortress America”
- AI Job Disruption: Hype vs. Reality
- Class, Social Consequences & The Next Economic Threats
- Audience Q&A: AI’s ethical liabilities, fatherhood, youth empowerment
DETAILED SUMMARY BY SEGMENT
1. Setting the Stage at SXSW — U.S. vs. The World (03:09–04:40)
- Scott and Ed open with jokes and candid banter about their live setting in Texas.
- Ed pivots quickly: the U.S. war with Iran is reshaping markets with great speed and uncertainty. Trump’s ambiguous comments—“when I feel it, feel it in my bones”—underscore the unpredictability.
Quote:
"[President] Trump said, quote, when I feel it, feel it in my bones. And now investors must reckon with the new reality of war in America." (Ed, 04:00)
2. How Capital Flows Are Shifting – Winners, Losers & U.S. Privilege (04:40–14:18)
- Foreign stocks drop far more than U.S.: “European stocks... down 5%... Japanese stocks 8%, South Korean stocks 13%. The economic damage might be felt most acutely outside of the U.S.” (Ed, 04:30)
- Rotation Reversal: 2025 saw capital flow out of the U.S. due to concerns over autocracy, legal instability—now the war’s made global investors flock back to the American market.
- Why?
- The dollar’s strength = best metric for capital flows.
- U.S. has unmatched shock absorbers: “We have two oceans, friendly Canada...self-sufficiency in energy and food. Other nations must depend on imports for essentials.” (Scott, 08:30)
- “It’s a little bit sad—we don’t get hit that hard... collateral damage has a much bigger impact on other nations than it does on us.” (Scott, 13:36)
- Winners: Norway, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and especially Russia ("biggest winner...more capital to fund the war and a distraction from Ukraine").
- Biggest Risks: Energy-importing Asian nations—Korea, Japan—very exposed.
- “Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Philippines...energy dependent, dollar-denominated debt, currencies crashing—chaos, IMF receivership, contagion risk for big European banks.” (Scott, 12:05)
- U.S. economic pain is muted compared to global ripple effects.
Quote:
“The smartest thing that can ever happen to you is to be born in America—or the smartest decision you’ve ever made is if you immigrated here…we’re pretty self-sufficient.” (Scott, 08:25)
3. Reputational Fallout: Strength vs. Cooperation (14:18–20:41)
- Ed challenges the idea of total U.S. independence: “Does that really mean we can just go out and cause chaos all around the world?”
- Scott: America's legacy of global cooperation—military bases, embassies, buying allies' “cooperation”—has built the current economic order, but that trust is fraying fast.
- “Capital flows are totally amoral...Money will go where it thinks it can get the greatest return.” (Scott, 18:05)
- Real concern: The long-term risk is human capital flight. America may stop attracting “the best and brightest.”
Quote:
“The best and brightest will think, I'm going to go study at INSEAD or Singapore or maybe Japan...instead of coming to the U.S.” (Scott, 19:34)
4. Stagflation, Perceived Insulation & America's Pain Threshold (20:41–28:08)
- U.S. seen as “the big, strong, drunken guy at the bar who becomes violent.” (Scott, 20:41)
- Ed warns that $100 oil + a softening labor market = stagflation risk. This could hurt even the U.S. if the Fed is forced to raise rates instead of cutting.
- Scott: Americans are far less tolerant of economic pain than other nations—a vulnerability in itself.
- “We have...the lowest tolerance for pain. Russia's core competence is their ability to endure suffering.” (Scott, 23:22)
- Market downturns are overdue and healthy—could reset intergenerational inequity.
- “A certain amount of disruption...is a healthy thing that transfers and seeds power, leverage and capital back from owners to earners.” (Scott, 27:45)
Notable Moment:
Scott urges young listeners to welcome a 30% market drawdown—so they can buy assets on the cheap and regain leverage.
5. The AI Carnage: Unemployment, ‘AI Washing,’ & The Real Tech to Watch (31:42–38:43)
- Scott and Ed review stark predictions from AI leaders:
- Dario Amadei: up to 20% unemployment “in the next one to five years.”
- Bill McDermott: “college grad unemployment could hit mid-30s.”
- Elon Musk: “Probably none of us will have a job.”
- Scott is skeptical of “catastrophizing”:
- Much “AI-linked” layoff news is PR spin covering overhiring and stagnation.
- Demand for programmers is actually up—“When technology gets cheaper, more use it.”
- The real transformative technology? GLP1 drugs (weight loss/diabetes), not AI.
- “Every time you hear an AI CEO saying, You don’t need college anymore…it means their kid didn’t get in.” (Scott, 40:24)
- Vocational upskilling and societal investments in non-college pathways are essential.
6. AI: The Tech, The Myth, The Social Crisis (43:38–50:25)
- CEOs hype AI as more profound than “electricity or fire” (Nadella, Pichai)—Scott translates: “Buy my stock. That’s all they’re saying.” (Scott, 43:57)
- Regulating AI is critical—Scott’s concern is not doomsday “sentient weapons,” but loneliness, social breakdown, and the unchecked spread of addictive/weaponized algorithms.
- “Throughout history, the darkest moments...have all had a preponderance of lonely young men with a lack of economic and romantic opportunities.” (Scott, 47:30)
- AI is fueling asocial, asexual young men—“the most damaging thing...is much more insidious and much more boring.”
7. PR, Public Trust, and Regulatory Reality (50:25–52:21)
- Public trust in AI is plummeting: “80% of Americans think AI is a threat to humanity.” (Ed, 50:25)
- Business and government must address both regulatory gaps and this perception crisis.
Prediction:
“Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Philippines are going to be in the news more. Their dollar denominated debt is about to become unsustainable…they’re the ones, unfortunately...really going to pay the price for this war.” (Scott, 51:52)
Q&A HIGHLIGHTS
Should advertisers be liable for AI/social media harms? (54:43)
- Scott: Liability rests with platforms. “Companies will always do what makes them an incremental dollar…The real culprit is us—we have not elected a group...with the backbone to regulate these companies.”
- Solution: Remove Section 230, address Citizens United, and structurally reform campaign finance.
Raising sons in a fraught era (58:39)
- Scott: “I thought having a son would be all Hallmark moments. Your kids are pretty awful...The goal is to find something you love so much, that it would be impossible to get a return. That’s what it means to have purpose.” (Scott, 58:54)
How to convince companies to invest in youth education? (61:54)
- Ed: Show the dynamism and fluency of young people—“You are the guys who are using this technology. You have the highest fluency in these technologies. Companies have every reason to back people like you.” (Ed, 62:23)
- Scott: Start making an impact, maximize social attention, then “relentlessly harass” executives until they fund you.
NOTABLE QUOTES
- “Money is totally amoral. As long as capital believes it can come to the U.S. and find entrepreneurship...those inflows will continue.” (Scott, 18:05)
- “The Dow and the NASDAQ are effectively a proxy for how the rich are doing.” (Scott, 26:00)
- “It’s always the shit you’re not expecting that gets you.” (Scott, ~12:40 and ~51:52)
- “Catastrophizing is one form of narcissism, in my viewpoint.” (Scott, 35:40)
- “We are producing a new species of asocial, asexual males…AI is fueling it.” (Scott, 47:30)
- “College has never been more important. Trust me on this, if you have the resources and a kid…access to college is a really good plan B.” (Scott, 42:30)
SEGMENT TIMESTAMPS
- War and Markets Opening: 03:09–04:40
- U.S. Position/Winners & Losers: 07:32–14:18
- Reputational Fallout/Capital Flows: 14:18–20:41
- Stagflation & Pain Threshold: 20:41–28:08
- AI Layoffs, Jobs & Hype: 31:42–38:43
- AI Social Crisis, Regulation: 43:38–50:25
- Public Opinion & Predictions: 50:25–52:21
- Q&A: 54:43–64:37
FINAL REMINDER
- Markets may seem stable, but “it’s always the shit you’re not expecting that gets you” (Scott, 51:52).
- America’s insulation is real, but moral and social aftershocks loom.
- AI’s greatest risks may be slow, insidious social change, not just job loss or sentient robots.
- Proactivity—at both the regulatory and personal level—is more urgent than ever.
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