Podcast Summary: The Daily – "Can Trump Make Venezuelan Oil Great Again?"

Date: January 13, 2026
Host: Natalie Kitroeff (The New York Times)
Guest: Anatoly Khmernaev (NYT’s in-house expert on Venezuelan oil)

Overview

In this episode, The Daily examines President Trump's recent intervention in Venezuela, explicitly aimed at reviving the country’s oil sector and re-opening it to American interests after decades of tensions, nationalizations, and economic turmoil. Natalie Kitroeff and expert Anatoly Khmernaev untangle the complicated history of Venezuelan oil—including America’s role, resource nationalism, decades-long decline, and the immense challenges facing any comeback attempt.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Why is Trump Focused on Venezuelan Oil?

• Geopolitics and Wealth: Venezuela represents the world’s largest oil reserves, making it a strategically irresistible target for a U.S. president with a resource-driven worldview.
• Historical Ties: The U.S., as the world’s biggest producer, sees a natural connection with Venezuela (“a natural tango... drama, cooperation, competition, conflict”—Khmernaev, 02:38).

Trump’s Justification: “Our Oil”

• Trump and allies publicly argue the U.S. has a rightful claim (“We're taking back what was taken from us. They took our oil industry. We built that entire oil industry…”—Trump, 01:10).
• Senior adviser Stephen Miller asserted, “American sweat, ingenuity and toil created the oil industry in Venezuela. Its tyrannical expropriation was the largest recorded theft of American wealth and property.” (04:33)
• Commentary: The rhetoric is “wild and exaggerated and incendiary, but it does contain a grain of truth.” —Khmernaev (05:06)

The Origins: How Americans Built Venezuela’s Oil Industry

• 1920s Boom: U.S. companies and workers helped launch Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, fundamentally shaping its cities, lifestyle, and economy (05:31–07:06).
• “After the influx of American workers, American capital, oil production starts to rise rapidly.” —Khmernaev (07:57)
• Urban Transformation: Cities like Maracaibo modeled after Houston, with American-style suburbs and amenities.

Tensions and “Resource Nationalism”

• Exploitation Sentiments: As wealth poured out to foreign firms, Venezuelans pushed back, birthing “resource nationalism,” a movement asserting state ownership of natural resources (09:24).
• OPEC Formation: Venezuela was instrumental in OPEC’s founding to control oil output and prices globally (09:58–10:34).
• First Nationalization (1970s): The industry became state-run under PDVSA; foreign firms compensated and allowed joint ventures (11:11).

Boom, Bust, and Increasing Dependency

• Post-Nationalization Prosperity: The oil bonanza propelled Venezuela to wealth and modernity but deepened dependency on a single commodity (13:54).
• Crash of the 1980s: Oil prices tanked, revenue collapsed, public spending dried up, and instability set in (14:14).

The Orinoco Gamble and “La Apertura”

• Facing crisis, Venezuela invited foreign firms back to tap hard-to-extract Orinoco crude during the 1990s. PDVSA receded, global giants returned (15:45).
• “The oil starts to flow...but the economic stability never comes back. People feel that the oil industry no longer serves the national interest.” —Khmernaev (15:54)
• Discontent set the stage for Hugo Chávez’s rise.

Hugo Chávez’s Populist Takeover

• Campaign Promise: “Venezuelan oil belongs to Venezuelan people.” (18:35)
• Chávez ousted PDVSA technocrats, politicized the company, and delivered patronage and welfare, but at the cost of expertise and efficiency (19:47–22:16).
• “It’s hard to think of a cultural, social activity or a product that...has not been sponsored or sold by PDVSA...” —Khmernaev (21:32)
• 2007 Nationalization: Forced foreign firms to cede control; ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips sued for lost assets, Chevron stayed (22:55–24:47).

Collapse Under Maduro

• Chávez’s successor, Nicolás Maduro, presided over catastrophic decline: hyperinflation, mass emigration, societal breakdown (25:08–27:27).
  • “Venezuela’s once-wanted oil fields become a scene out of a dystopian movie.” —Khmernaev (26:11)

U.S. Pressure and Shift to (Stealth) Privatization

• Trump’s sanctions deepened the crisis; Maduro’s successor Delsy Rodriguez covertly allowed foreign firms more control (28:20–29:08).
• Production improved slightly but remains a shadow of past highs.

What Would It Take to Revive Venezuela’s Oil?

• Investment Need: Tens of billions required to rebuild degraded infrastructure, with easy fixes exhausted (29:49).
• “You cannot just turn the spigot back on…once something decays...it often damages the geological receptacle...it is extremely expensive and time consuming to repair.” —Khmernaev (30:09)
• Western Oil CEOs’ Attitude: Cautious—Chevron is wary after past seizures; ExxonMobil deems Venezuela “uninvestable” under current conditions (31:55–32:42).

Essential Preconditions for Revival

• Political Stability: New leader Rodriguez rules precariously; risk from armed factions and internal rivals is high (33:09–34:03).
• Legal Guarantees: Companies wary after prior expropriations and uncertainties about future U.S. administrations (34:30–34:59).
• Market Uncertainties: Clean energy transition clouds the long-term value of massive new oil investments (35:17).

If the Comeback Succeeds: U.S. Gains

• Economic Influence: Lower global oil/gas prices, helping American consumers at the pump—a prime Trump concern (36:39).
• Geopolitical Power: Control over vast reserves weakens rivals (Russia, China) and improves U.S. leverage worldwide (37:12–38:17).

Is U.S. Control Sustainable?

• Current arrangements depend on U.S. military deterrence and an amenable interim government; history suggests this “puppet” setup is unstable long-term (38:17–39:59).
• “History shows... such ambitious grandiose long-term plans rarely turn out the way they’ve been envisioned.” —Khmernaev (39:43)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Trump’s Justification:

  • “We're taking back what was taken from us. They took our oil industry. We built that entire oil industry...” (01:10, attributed to Trump’s public remarks)

• Stephen Miller on U.S. entitlements:

  • “American sweat, ingenuity and toil created the oil industry in Venezuela. Its tyrannical expropriation was the largest recorded theft of American wealth and property.” (04:33)

• Anatoly Khmernaev on American influence:

  • “Venezuela basically enter[ed] modernity through the prism of how American oil workers saw the world.” (07:23)

• Khmernaev on Chávez’s populist refashioning:

  • “It's hard to think of a cultural, social activity or a product that you buy that has not been sponsored or sold by PDVSA at the time.” (21:32)

• Chevron on Risk:

  • “We've had our assets seized there twice. And so you can imagine to reenter a third time would require some pretty significant changes...” (32:10)

• ExxonMobil’s Reluctance:

  • “If we look at the legal and commercial constructs...in place today in Venezuela... it's uninvestable.” (32:35)

• Khmernaev on infrastructure challenges:

  • “The thing about the oil industry, Natalie, is that you cannot just turn the spigot back on. Once something decays... it often damages the geological receptacle holding the oil. And it's extremely expensive and time-consuming to repair…” (30:09–31:01)

• Khmernaev on historical lessons:

  • “History shows...such ambitious grandiose long-term plans rarely turn out the way they've been envisioned.” (39:43)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:10 — Trump’s claim: “They took our oil industry...”
• 02:38 — Why Venezuela’s oil is geopolitically important
• 04:33 — Stephen Miller’s “largest theft of American wealth” comment
• 05:31–07:06 — How Americans built Venezuela’s oil industry
• 09:24 — Rise of resource nationalism
• 09:58–10:34 — Venezuela’s role in founding OPEC
• 11:11 — First nationalization and creation of PDVSA
• 15:45 — “La Apertura”: inviting foreign companies back in the ‘90s
• 18:35 — Chávez’s campaign and “oil for the people”
• 19:47–22:16 — Chávez’s purge of PDVSA, politicization, and consequences
• 22:55–24:47 — 2007 wave of nationalization and U.S. company exodus
• 26:11 — Collapse of Venezuela’s oil sector, dystopian decay
• 28:20–29:08 — The “stealth privatization” under Delsy Rodriguez
• 29:49–31:01 — Immense rebuilding investment needed
• 31:55–32:42 — Chevron and ExxonMobil representatives’ remarks
• 33:09–34:03 — Political uncertainty under new leadership
• 35:17 — Energy transition’s impact on oil investment calculus
• 36:39–37:12 — U.S. economic and geopolitical gains from oil resurgence
• 39:43 — “Grandiose long-term plans rarely turn out as envisioned”

Conclusion

The episode provides a comprehensive, clear-eyed look at the tangled legacy of Venezuelan oil—once a symbol of global modernity and American partnership, later a story of control, populism, decline, and collapse. Now, as Trump attempts to orchestrate a dramatic comeback favoring U.S. business, The Daily leaves listeners with the sobering reminder that neither history nor the challenges of today make a simple “make oil great again” scenario likely or sustainable.

For anyone who hasn’t listened, this summary captures the episode’s deep dive into Venezuelan oil’s past, present, and uncertain future—with the kind of narrative sweep, analysis, and skepticism characteristic of The Daily’s best journalism.