The Daily — "Iran on the Brink"

Episode Date: January 14, 2026
Host: Rachel Abrams (The New York Times)
Guest: Farnaz Fasihi (NYT Iran Correspondent)

Episode Overview

This urgent episode explores the eruption of massive, nationwide protests in Iran, the deepest crisis the Islamic Republic has faced in decades. Host Rachel Abrams speaks to veteran Iran correspondent Farnaz Fasihi about the confluence of economic meltdown, external military threats, widespread public anger, and the regime’s brutal response—painting a picture of a society on the edge and a government closer than ever to collapse.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Nature and Scale of the Protests

• Nationwide Uprising: Protests have erupted "in cities big and small, across different demographics" with calls for not just reforms but the end of the Islamic Republic's rule.
  • Farnaz Fasihi (02:02): “This is coupled with an external threat from the United States and Israel that there might be a military strike on Iran and an economy that's in tailspin, which is creating a very unique and difficult challenge for the government because it's facing a kind of a perfect storm.”
• Brutal Government Crackdown: The regime has responded with "violent crackdowns," with thousands reportedly killed or injured.
  • "Bodies are piling up at the morgue and at the cemetery as reports of the killings trickle out." (02:24)

2. Economic Collapse as a Trigger

• Currency Freefall & Inflation:
  • Trump-era sanctions and international snapback measures have devastated Iran's currency (the rial) and sent inflation soaring to 60%.
  • Goods like cooking oil, rice, and eggs have tripled in price overnight.
• Strikes at the Bazaar: The protests originated in Tehran’s bazaar—“the pulse of Iran’s economy”—as merchants struck amid runaway currency instability, paralyzing commerce.
  • “From hour to hour they had to adjust the prices... there was this sense that we want to put pressure on the government and the central bank to try to stabilize the currency because we just can't operate like this.” (05:18)
• Spread to Working-Class & Rural Areas: The unrest quickly expanded beyond economic elites to the working class and smaller towns.

3. Wider Discontent: Politics, Social Freedom, and Identity

• Deep Disconnect with the Regime:
  • Most Iranians are "less religious than what the state wants... They are not ideological," distancing themselves from the clerical establishment’s original Islamic revolutionary ideals.
• Generational Shift & Global Awareness:
  • Young people "see how the rest of the world is living," from Europe and the US to Turkey and Dubai, and question, “Why not us?” (09:12)
• Enduring Demand for Democracy:
  • The current protests follow a string of pro-democracy movements (1999 student protests, 2008 Green Movement, 2022 women-led uprising), all grassroots and led by figures like Nobel laureate Nargis Mohammadi (now in prison).
• Chants in the Streets:
  • “Death to the dictator. Death to the oppressor.”
  • “Long live the Shah” — a nostalgic reference to Iran’s monarchy, toppled in 1979.
  • “Freedom, Freedom, Azadi.” (10:32)

4. From Sympathy to Suppression: Evolution of the Government Response

• Initial Attempt at Conciliation:
  • President Masoud Pezeshkian told protesters, “You're all my children... the protesters have a legitimate reason to protest.”
  • Measures such as firing the Central Bank governor and promising $7/month stipends failed to appease and even deepened mistrust.
• Hardline Reversion:
  • Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei denounced protesters as “agents of the United States and Israel,” vowed “no mercy,” justified harsh crackdowns. (11:50)
  • Intense violence followed, including snipers in the streets, internet blackouts, and mass shootings at protests.

5. Scenes of Brutality and Trauma

• Human Toll:
  • “People shot at close range in the head, in the torso, from the back.” (14:23)
• Memorable Moment:
  • Viral video of photographer Sadeq Parvizadeh: “How can you fire on your own countrymen? Killing a person is like a game for them. I swear to God. We're also citizens of this country. We have pain.” (15:10)
• Overwhelmed Hospitals & Morgues: Hospitals flooded with casualties; morgues show bodies “piled in the parking lot,” families wailing as they search for relatives.

6. International Context: War and Vulnerability

• External Pressures Converge:
  • Iran reeling from a “12-day war with Israel,” US bombing of nuclear facilities, “decimated” regional proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas).
  • Weakened deterrence increases regime’s vulnerability and perhaps emboldens protesters.
• US Threats and Trump’s Stance:
  • President Trump, via social media: “They will pay a big price” (referring to regime repression) and signals openness to military intervention.
  • Iranian leadership takes U.S. threats seriously, recalling prior U.S. bombing and being rattled by US action elsewhere (like Venezuela).
  • “If the US attacks us, we are going to retaliate forcefully against American targets... We will also attack Israel. So it seems like they're preparing for war.” (20:37)

7. What Might US Intervention Mean?

• Historical Precedent & Dangers:
  • Farnaz cautions against assuming US military action will bring stability; points to failures in Iraq and Afghanistan, and reminds listeners of the 1953 CIA-backed coup in Iran:

    “We’ve seen that the US can win the military war... but it can’t win the long war or the long peace. Stability and a smooth transition have been elusive.” (23:20)

  • No signs yet of internal regime defections.
• Risks of Instability Post-Regime:
  • Iran’s opposition is divided, with ethnic minorities seeking autonomy, risk of militant groups exploiting a power vacuum, and core regime loyalists armed and ready to fight on.

    “These are scenarios that are not fantasies... it's important to keep a clear eye and sober view of what the options are and what the outcomes may be.” (25:17)

8. Resilience and Hope Amid Despair

• Iranians’ Endurance:
  • Despite waves of crushed protests:

    “No matter how much force the government uses... it can't kill the dream as it hasn't been able to in previous protests. The protests have built upon each other over the years and what I hear this time and what I see is that the Iranian people have lost their fear.” (27:14)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the roots of unrest:
  "People are just fed up... they feel like they've got nothing to lose."
  — Farnaz Fasihi (03:14)

• On the regime’s “perfect storm”:
  “It’s facing a kind of perfect storm.”
  — Farnaz Fasihi (02:02)

• On lost trust in leadership:
  “The measures that [President Pezeshkian] was taking not only did little to appease people, but they also had an opposite effect. It sort of reinforced this feeling that the people who are in charge don't really know what they're doing.”
  — Farnaz Fasihi (06:38)

• On brutality:
  “This is a level of violence and cruelty that I haven't seen in the 30 years that I've been covering Iran.”
  — Farnaz Fasihi (16:00)

• On perseverance and hope:
  “The Iranian people have lost their fear.”
  — Farnaz Fasihi (27:14)

Timestamps of Key Segments

• 00:00 – 01:18: Context & overview of ongoing protests, emerging crackdown.
• 02:02 – 03:14: Farnaz Fasihi characterizes the “perfect storm” and root causes.
• 05:18 – 06:14: Economic collapse; impact of sanctions; bazaar protests.
• 08:10 – 11:23: Societal disconnect from government; reminiscences of past movements; protest chants.
• 11:50 – 15:10: Shift to regime violence; information blackout; scenes from hospitals, morgues; Sadeq Parvizadeh’s viral video.
• 18:13 – 19:44: Regional context: recent war with Israel, US strikes, weakened allies.
• 20:05 – 21:37: Trump’s threats; regime preparations for war.
• 22:35 – 25:17: Cautionary lessons from history on military intervention and regime change.
• 26:47 – 27:54: Impact on Iranian psyche if uprising is crushed; persistence of hope.

Conclusion

This episode distills the gravity and complexity of Iran’s current crisis: economic catastrophe and social frustration fueling unprecedented protests; a regime morphing from conciliatory to ruthless; military threats swirling; and an exhausted, determined population testing the limits of state violence. While the regime’s collapse is not inevitable, Farnaz Fasihi’s reporting makes clear that Iranian hopes for freedom endure—despite everything.