Ty Hildenbrandt

This is an iHeart podcast.

Chris Felica

Guaranteed Human.

Ty Hildenbrandt

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Chris Felica

presents Painful Thoughts I I can't stop scratching my downtown. Mm, yeah, but I'm not itching to

Dan Rubenstein

go downtown and tell a receptionist I'm

Chris Felica

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Ty Hildenbrandt

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Dan Rubenstein

Welcome to the solid verbal. The solid verbal come after me.

Chris Felica

I'm a man.

Dan Rubenstein

I'm 40.

Chris Felica

I've heard so many players say, well,

Dan Rubenstein

I want to be happy. You want to be happy for a day? Eat a steak.

Ty Hildenbrandt

It's that whoop, whoop.

Chris Felica

And now dam.

Ty Hildenbrandt

It is a cold and dreary day in eastern pa but it's always a pleasure to be here with you and the verballer hood. Dan Rubenstein, welcome back.

Dan Rubenstein

Thank you very much. Yeah, it's actually pretty nice here. I'm excited for this show. I'm excited to speak with you and hopefully ty through this content we can warm you up.

Ty Hildenbrandt

I was mostly speaking to the verballer hood. The sunshine, the rays of the verballer hood beaming down upon me.

Dan Rubenstein

Good, good, good. I'm. I'm glad to hear it. Yeah. Very excited for the show we're having on Chris Felica now of fox, formerly v S P N. You've seen his face on game day. You've seen his face on big noon. And he has occupied a unique place in the college football media world. And so excited to talk to him about all sorts of things, data and his own personal history and how things have changed over the years. So can't believe we haven't had him on. Excited to have him on and go from there.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Absolutely. We didn't do a show earlier in the week because I had some vocal stuff going on, but we are back now this week on Thursday. We haven't fully sussed this out, but I think that may also be the plan next week because we are very slowly now building into preview season. Once we get into the first full week of July, you're going to start seeing preview content go up three times per week, every Sunday, every Tuesday, every Thursday. We're starting to gear up for the college football season. The first thing that you will hear as you have the last two years now is the intro to the 2026 college football season. And then that will be followed by a part one and a part two as we make our way through the G6 and we'll lump Connecticut in there as well. And then after that, we're going to be rolling with the power four. We're going to continue on with what we did each of the last two seasons. I think at a minimum last year where we did a part one, which was a bigger picture look at the Power 4 conferences. So we'll start off with the ACC, the themes within the conference, the contender tiers within the conference, the things that we're watching within the conference, and then that'll be followed up by two more episodes where we break the conference down into two and we preview individual teams within. So we've started doing that already. It's a lot of studying, but honestly, it is June right now. There is not a whole lot to talk about. We do have something to talk about here momentarily, but it's a breath of fresh air to actually be thinking about and talking about real world football. I'm kind of pumped.

Dan Rubenstein

Agree. Absolutely. Yes. So that first episode will be tiers and storylines, and then we'll go through team by team stuff and, you know, talk about what's new for this year. You know, how we feel about these teams and schedules, the, the, the stuff you're used to. And I gotta tell you, Ty, it makes me very happy to do those episodes. I'm always super pumped to dive in and reveal all of my wrong opinions ahead of the season beginning 100%.

Ty Hildenbrandt

So if you're new here, even if you're not, make sure you hit, follow or subscribe so that you don't miss any any of these episodes. Any of those episodes. If you've got something to say, as always, solidverbalmail.com and of course, as we say on every episode, verballers.com V E R B A L L E R S.com that is our Patreon. We built a whole fan portal that we're going to roll out this year that's going to contain all of the games that we've played in the past that we're going to in some cases roll out here in the very near future that are new or were maybe dormant for a year or so as we get into preview season. So we'd encourage you all to check that out. If you do sign up as a Patreon member, it is again, the best way that you can support what Dan and I do. Helps us keep the lights on here at Solid Verbal hq.

Dan Rubenstein

Yes.

Ty Hildenbrandt

With that being said, Dan, I'm not going to yell it because my voice has been dead for about a week and a half now after you and I recorded, I don't know, last Wednesday. Yeah, a little bit about like a week ago. I then went to the World cup and screamed my face off, which didn't help. But really, going back to Wednesday, it's, it's been no bueno with the voice. I'm not going to yell the breaking

Dan Rubenstein

news thing and you were dehydrated and you had a terrible slice of pizza and you had a rough a terrible go of it.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Dollar slice of petal petal pizza. Pizza.

Dan Rubenstein

Yeah.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Lumen Field, AKA Seattle Stadium. Yes.

Dan Rubenstein

Yeah, usually the best pizza in Seattle,

Ty Hildenbrandt

but the best, worst pizza I've ever had.

Dan Rubenstein

A bad slice.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Lumen Field.

Dan Rubenstein

But okay, but we do have breaking news.

Ty Hildenbrandt

We do have breaking news. It turns out that all of that, and by that I mean capital T that surrounding Brendan Sorsby for a long time he was trying to play in college football. Decided even though he won a temporary injunction, it wasn't for him. There was too much going on. Maybe it was Texas Tech, maybe it was Brandon Source. It was probably a little bit of both of them deciding that it was best to part ways he was going to enter the NFL supplemental draft. The NFL has decided it is declining to hold a supplemental draft this summer. It's not like a thing that always happens in reality. They haven't done one in years. And as such, Brendan Sorsby is now going to have to wait his turn until the 2027 NFL Draft. In do you have the quote from the NFL lawyer.

Dan Rubenstein

Yeah, yeah. So this is a letter to Brendan Sorsby or his representatives, whatever the quote is. So this is Pete Thamel, per the letter obtained by ESPN to Sorsby, which references a supplemental draft that hasn't been held in years. Quote, your petition filed three business days before the deadline without any supporting information or documentation and only after abandoning your recent litigation efforts to avoid NCAA sanctions does not provide a basis for the league capital L to alter those plans, man. The plans, as in to not have a supplemental draft this year. So 2027 it is. Those are where the hopes are. And it's a longer letter. I encourage you to check it out if this kind of thing interests you. But Brandon Sorsby will not be playing NFL football this fall.

Ty Hildenbrandt

This story has taken so many turns. It has taken so many turns since. Gosh, I don't even remember when all this news broke. You have to wait a while to see what Sourceby looks like in the NFL. I don't know if there's another league that would take him in the interim just to see what he can do and help refine his skills. I don't know if he goes into training just to sort of get ready for the draft, but sure seems as though, yeah, this, this, this has taken another turn while we were recording today, recording this a little bit early on Tuesday, June 23rd. So if there is anything more on this in the interim, I suppose we will break it here on the show, but for the time being anyway, yeah, that's where we're at now.

Dan Rubenstein

So he was considered to be. I saw a draft analyst talking about this and that his tape was sort of mixed and some of his best clips were as good as any of, you know, the quarterbacks in next year's draft or this year's draft like. But it was the depth of clips that he didn't necessarily have. This was, it was two first down, first round quarterbacks this year, Ty Simpson and Fernando Mendoza. Correct.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Right.

Dan Rubenstein

So the market or the, excuse me, the class wasn't especially great.

Ty Hildenbrandt

No.

Dan Rubenstein

You know, per NFL teams when it comes to quarterbacks this year, next year obviously has received a number of different draft people talking about how deep it is and how talented it is. So now he is going up against the likes of those, you know, Arch Manning and Dante Moore types when it comes to finding his spot in the NFL. So certainly it'll be more difficult for him though I guess he'll be better rested.

Ty Hildenbrandt

I suppose, like I said, if there is more to come and it Is of interest here to the verballer Hood will do our part.

Dan Rubenstein

I think this is kind of it

Ty Hildenbrandt

for a long time, it would seem as such.

Dan Rubenstein

And with that, we welcome in Chris. Felica. I'm almost positive that's pronounced correctly. Not Falica, Not Felica. Felica. Yes.

Chris Felica

You have it. I've also. I've been called. I've been called all of the above. I've been called Felucca as well. Yeah, sure, sure. But you know what? You got it on the first try. So that's a. You have already endeared yourselves to me.

Dan Rubenstein

Yes. I mean, look, it matters, right? Like, your name is all you have at the end of the day. So let's get it right.

Chris Felica

I did. I did a show. It was going back a few years now, and it was actually when Lamar Jackson was still at Louisville, so that's how long ago it was. I did a show in Louisville where like, I multiple. Multiple times a year for multiple years, and they still called me Phallic. I never corrected him because I don't want to be that guy. I mean, I'm on whatever. It's fine. Like, I figured someone else would ultimately tell them, but nobody ever did, so it's good.

Dan Rubenstein

Okay, so now Fox Sports and Big Noon and Bear Bets. You're all over the place with Fox Sports and the college football and now the World cup ecosystem. Formerly a producer and researcher and all sorts of things with game day. You've. You've seen him as the bear. Not a bear. The bear.

Chris Felica

The only one.

Dan Rubenstein

The one and only. So I guess here's the transition. First and foremost, was there a name in all of, like, your research packets you're poring over? You're studying that. Either you said on air or we're trying to help people say on air. Was there a Particularly because we've been doing the show since 2008. There is not a team, there is not a player. There is not a name. There is. That has escaped our ability to mispronounce something. Have you struggled?

Chris Felica

Chris Fuoma. Tuma Follow was one of my favorite.

Dan Rubenstein

Yeah, sure.

Chris Felica

To go in there. There's a great. I can't remember the linebacker from Auburn. Oh, gosh. Late. Oh, no. I can't remember who it was now around when Geo spikes. He said takeoff.

Dan Rubenstein

Oh, that wasn't even a tough last name.

Chris Felica

Yeah, he said. He said. He said Ticio Spikes instead of Takeo. And I tried to correct him and I was like, oh, we said it wrong. And I wound up finding out his mom wound up Calling like the ESPN switchboard to say that he said the name incorrectly. And Lee, at the time he was still his typical energetic, quick witted self. He's like, yeah, I'll never say his name again now.

Dan Rubenstein

Exactly. Or you just invent a new way to say his name where it's just like Chris L and like how everybody just sort of said Tua instead of Tonga Vailoa.

Chris Felica

Oh gosh, they were, they were a. Gosh. I'm trying to think if there were some. I'm sure I'll come up with more.

Dan Rubenstein

Well, this year we have Jaren Kiave, Sanga Pulatelli.

Chris Felica

Ali would just call him jks.

Dan Rubenstein

Jks. It's easy enough. Okay, so what is this time of year like for you as you're preparing for the season, as you're preparing, you know, college football from a number of different perspectives and gathering information and preparing for tv? Like what, what is June, July like?

Chris Felica

It's a little bit of a, kind of in between periods because I'll try and do some things during like spring practice and when spring practice wrap up, like figure out my burning questions for the type of year issues, storylines that are most prominent in my mind. I'll kind of do a little data mining, maybe catch up on filling up, updating some databases that I have with AP poll rank and spreads and things like that. So it's a lot of maintenance at this time of year just trying to prepare. I have some opinions already formed on when the win totals get posted. I like to kind of cross reference and kind of see what I might project with some of the numbers that are out there. So I fired on some early season win totals. But yeah, yeah, right, right now I'm kind of in that in between period where World Cups here. So I've been writing daily columns and watching World cup and betting World cup. So we're kind of in that in between period right now where I don't think and none of them, none of the numbers right now I think are going to move greatly from where they've all been betting to already. So in terms of firing it on college football action, I'm, I'm not going crazy right now, but I, but, but, but I will once camp opens up and you, you see and read and hear things about impact players or teams that don't necessarily look good or maybe there's some awards plays out there. But yeah, it's a, it's, it's a good time of year. You get to kind of take a little bit of a breath.

Dan Rubenstein

What else is in your database. What, what kind of numbers, what kind of metrics do you look at to inform? Not even just from a wagering perspective. Also right when you're just talking about the sport, what interests you? What kind of information do you feel like informs your viewpoint?

Chris Felica

Yeah, well we have access to the True Media database which which is great. I mean it has all sorts of EPA numbers in there. Schedule adjusted metrics which those the schedule adjusted metrics are my most leaned upon stuff. Whether it's whether it's based on the schedule itself or it's essentially grinding it down to power four or top 30 things like anything, there's no sport out there that statistics and power ratings and public opinion should be based on schedule wise. And then college football, everything is based on who you played with. The in the era here of super conferences, the schedules within each league are so varied, so varying and so different leagues are different. The group of six is a completely different sport than the power four and even within the power four there's a different sport within there. So I love mining and doing filters amongst that. I obviously like looking at a lot of the individual batch ups in terms of like EPA offense versus EPA defense, things like that. Try and find some things and I like looking at post game win probability. I looking at try and find which teams we might be able to get an opportunity on to and maybe they're not really as good as a record or they won this game. But like the best example I think from last year was the Oklahoma Alabama game where OKLAHOMA Oklahoma had 170 yards in the game and like a 7% post game win expectancy and somehow went in there and won. And that obviously had a big trickle down effect in the College Football Playoff.

Ty Hildenbrandt

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Chris Felica

Coverage not available everywhere.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Visit store or boost mobile.com for details.

Chris Felica

Amazon Health AI presents Painful Thoughts I I can't stop scratching my downtown. Yeah, but I'm not itching to go

Dan Rubenstein

downtown and tell a receptionist I'm here

Ty Hildenbrandt

to talk about my downtown.

Chris Felica

Some things you'd rather type than say out loud. There's no question too embarrassing For Amazon Health AI chat your symptoms and get virtual care. 24. 7 Healthcare just got less painful.

Ty Hildenbrandt

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Chris Felica

I still haven't mastered it. I still have to figure out a good way to kind of do because a lot of we as Bill did in the past. Bill love the, the returning production and returning production. Now it's completely like how are you defining it? Returning production that was on the squad last year. Returning production, including the players with the production that they had at their former school. It is a, it is a guessing game. A lot of times are these guys who are just were in a bad situation at their school and they just needed to get out. Are they someone who is just securing more money in the pay for player to get to get a better bag and play more better opportunity? I have not found a good way of doing it. I will say the one area that I think macro in terms of transfer portal, I think teams that use and I think it might have proved out a little bit last year with some of these teams that if you kind of recruit well, you recruit the trenches, you recruit the interior and then you kind of use the portal to find your quarterback, find a defensive back, find a wide receiver, find a skull guy. I think a lot of times that might be the way to go because I think even recruiting bore this out like it takes a while for a quarterback to get on the field. It takes a while for a wide receiver maybe to have an impact like that. And why are you going to utilize resources to bring in a guy that after a year if he doesn't play he's going to. He's going to wind up bolted in the portal anyway. So I think that's a Strategy that a lot of teams might start using. I know that's, I don't want to say that is Miami strategy, but if you look at the way Miami, my alma mater, built their team, you recruited well and Bain and the guys on the offensive line that they had, and then you, okay, you go out and you bring in Cam Ward, one, you bring in Carson Beck, you bring in C.J. daniels, you bring in Keonte Scott and the areas in the skill, they supplemented their team and it worked out well. We'll see if that's a path moving forward, if that just happens to be a one off.

Ty Hildenbrandt

One of the things that I've been thinking about a lot because we're starting to collect all of our preview material now as well. I think back to when Deion Sanders first took over at Colorado and how there was much made of the fact that he was basically importing his own team. Right. He's bringing his own guys. And, you know, that worked maybe to some extent. Clearly what went on in Indiana is an edge case. Miami's been very successful as well. I'm wondering if moving forward there is any kind of way to quantify coaches who have had success in the Portal in previous seasons. Because I'm starting to want. I'm starting to see a trend. Right. Like, again, Signetti probably isn't like the base case because he's very much an anomaly. But it does seem as if you can look across college football and find coaches who have been overwhelmingly more successful than some of their peers. Like, don't bet on Mike Norvell, but maybe bet on somebody else who's had a little bit more success. I don't know if that's something I could put into play yet, but it's definitely something I jotted down.

Chris Felica

I like your thought there, because it's not only the head coach or the coaching, it's these personnel guys that, that you have a. Your talented, your roster builders, kind of the GMs of the program who do really well. Look at, look at Vandy, and he's another one that they've done super well and they're bringing in players. Indiana, obviously, Miami, obviously. Link Kiffin, someone who obviously has done very well. That's going to be something too, to see how they have the gm, the cultural relationship, the collectives. And then moving forward, what happens in the grand space of the sport if Congress gets involved, which, God, I hope it doesn't, that's the last thing we need is government intervention in this sport. I don't know if what we have right now is sustainable. I think we are all in agreement that something needs to be done. Whether it's making these players, employees, figuring out what to. Because I just, I think someone sent me an article yesterday. I think it was in a basketball chat. So I don't know if it was related to basketball, related to football, related to the athletic department, but like Louisville had like a 30 million dollar deficit or it's not sustainable the way, the way we're going right now. So something's got to be done or else, unfortunately, we're going to see, I think a lot of these programs go away and see, see a breakaway in this, a super conference, which I don't necessarily think is the best thing for the sport either.

Ty Hildenbrandt

I know you're a researcher at heart. I know you care about a lot of the same data sets that Dan and I do. What is the biggest difference for you? Having maybe been on the other side of the camera doing the hard work, informing the talent, helping them be as smart as possible on air to then suddenly moving to the other side where you're giving opinions, more people can see your face, can attribute whatever you're saying directly to you. And oh, they have your social media handle. Can you describe what that experience has been like? Because it's not something we've experienced here. Maybe someday. My hunch is that it would probably take a lot of people off by surprise.

Chris Felica

It really hasn't been super jarring for me.

Ty Hildenbrandt

That's good, right?

Chris Felica

Yeah, it is good because I try to the person I was as a researcher with the numbers and the opinions that I would have in my tweets and whatever else, I'm kind of the same person now. Just I'm the one delivering. Delivering it kind of on air as opposed to giving it to Kirk or Reese or Chris or David Paul, whoever on the game days it is. So it's kind of cool that it's something that I came up with. And it's interesting because I think this just came into my mind as I was thinking about it. Like there were things that I would come up with at the time and I'd be like, damn, I really would love to be the one to say this on air. But at the time, we didn't necessarily have the camera and whatever else to do it. So I would kind of give it to Kirk or Chris or whomever and like, okay, it's got to be said like this way. This is a really good note and this is how I want it, like spun. But it was really organic the way it all came about because I just had such a great relationship with those guys on the set and they knew how to press my buttons and they knew what subjects would get me going and they knew what I was armed for. Bear with that poor, poor pun on words there. But it's been good. It's. I kind of like it because now that if I'm the one I say it, I own it.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Yeah.

Chris Felica

And going back and forth yesterday, for example, I had a comment. It's amazing how everything comes back to like college football in a sense, with a lot of my followers. Like I said something like harmless. I think the world World cup final, it would be so much better at Azteca or in Dallas. So much better than MetLife. And someone who apparently was a New Yorker, and I'm a New Yorker too, at a Notre Dame tie turns this into. No, it wouldn't. You just, why would you say that New York is just like you touting the ESPN line of being in of Notre Dame, head of Notre Dame and making that move and going all in on Notre Dame. And I said, well, hold on. I said if you want to go back and look, my argument last year was that you want to blame someone, blame the College Football Playoff for the way they rank these teams to begin with because Miami never should have been behind Notre Dame. And my argument was that Notre Dame should have been in over Alabama or Oklahoma. And the aerial issue was the fact that you had group two, group of six teams in. So the fact that I can kind of go back and like people, interact and care enough about what I have to say, that's pretty cool because I just try, I try and be the same guy on air, on social media that I am. And as long as you don't like berate me or curse at me or whatever, like I'll, I'll do my best to respond and have interactions with you.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Something I have always wondered just because you brought it up here a second ago, you have access to incredible data sets. Given the work that you're doing for the on air talent. I feel like every so often, and it doesn't happen every Saturday, but every so often there will be an obscure, and I mean really obscure statistics that somebody pulls out of left field that was found deep in the annals of like the Elias Sports Bureau or whatever. I have always wondered, I am not kidding. My, the entire span of me being a sports fan, I have always wondered how on God's green earth are you finding those stats? Because it is not. You mentioned you have like ideas for something that you put out there on air and you want to be the one to deliver it. How are you finding these things? Is it just really clever filtering? Because every data set is, is known to man is available. Like what can you talk me through that process? Because I genuinely have always wondered where that stuff comes from.

Chris Felica

A lot of times it is like I'll just go on kind of a wild goose chase and start doing filters for certain things and just kind of sort and mine stuff out and oh wow, look, look, look, look at this. If you, if you look at combined penalty yards, turnover per game, right, Whomever is the most undisp team. And I actually can't. This was something I actually came up with. I called it like the, the undiscipline index. It says it was like the team like penalties per game, turnovers per game and like sacks allowed per game to like to figure out like, like the, the worst like teams in that category where what purpose it uses I don't know. But I guess on the opposite end if like you, you could say like the teams that don't. And this is how I kind of came up with last year. I used it to support Indiana like they were like the best team in the country last year in terms of allowing sacks, committing fewest penalties and not turning the ball over. So that obviously panned out into something where you got a team that didn't hurt themselves at all and they took advantage of all these things and they wound up winning the national championship. So a lot of it is that I'll just have a list of things that like I, I kind of, kind of want to look up. Just like I love looking up non offensive touchdowns just kind of is a thing that I like. Red zone, red zone turnovers is something that I like looking at things like big high variance plays within a game. Obviously the middle eight is something that obviously has gotten a lot of publicity. I know Dave Bartu has a lot of thoughts as well how that is kind of, kind of overblown, kind of looking at like just kind of differentials at certain points in the game. But I can remember way back like in my day, how easy is it now to do like average average gain on first down or average distance to go on third down and conversion rates. I can remember 1997 college football season and that was my second year as game day researcher. Like I, I would have to reach out to the schools and get a hard copy of all the statistical game books for the season. So I'd have like, I remember going through like Michigan and Washington State game books from the 1987 for the 1998 Rose bowl and coming up with like the Michigan defense is third. Like average teams average distance to go on third down against that great Michigan defense and, and how they couldn't convert or, or like Ryan Lee's third down passing percentage during that year. Because like none of this was like readily. There was no like real Internet to, to find any of this. So I was kind of doing this manually to help Kirk with a lot of the game calls and a lot of his stuff on air as well. So I can remember Brett Edwards, who a lot of people know from his work at ESPN and the BCS guru for the espn we used to live together. And I can remember the, remember the Route 66663 Texas UCLA game the following year. Again, there was no, we did not have an AP poll database at the time, but we found a book of AP polls in some library in New York. And at the time we had all the hard copies of the BD guides. We had a hard copy in our house because we were sickos and we would look shit up all the time. I remember one night we decided to be like, hey, you know what? We could. I'd really love to find out like what the biggest margin of defeat for a top 10 team that they played the next year and what the result was. And I don't think we ever found the answer. But it was pretty cool to just start like writing stuff down throughout the middle of the night before a college football Saturday. But. And now that's. That's an easy thing to do with, with the AP poll database that we have. Here's every game involving a top 10 team. And here crazy.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Wow.

Dan Rubenstein

So if you're wondering why Chris has had the job he's had these past few decades and why you listener at home can't burst into the industry, it's because very clearly when he's banging down the door at the New York Public Library for old AP polls, Chris is capital B built different. Okay? And you just have to make peace with that.

Chris Felica

So for. For better or worse.

Dan Rubenstein

For better or for worse. So a few years ago, just sort of in, in sort of what you were talking about, the undisciplined index I got maybe three, four years ago, it might have been Troy Taylor, the punter at Iowa calculated that he probably the yardage that he ran on and off the field to punt a ball was greater than Iowa's offensive output. Like he was putting up more yards running on and off of the field. And I, I say that one, to pat myself on the back because I was very proud of that. And two, have you ever come up with something? Have you ever dug up something? Have you ever, I think you were doing the AFLAC trivia stuff, right? Like, have you ever found something that was too mean to put out there

Chris Felica

to mean.

Dan Rubenstein

Maybe that's just the way my brain works that I calculated like the Texas

Chris Felica

Tech defense when, when. And I think it's, it's not a great reflection of on me, but I think if I give out like a wager now, it just shows the evolution of like my career. Like research hardcore stats. Now people know me in the betting space. Like if I were to lose a wager and there was a ridiculous type performance in a game where a quarterback stunk or whatever, whatever, yeah, I would, I would probably have a little bit of an extra grind at time and I, and I would do my best not to. Or I can very specifically remember a couple of years ago, Miami, Syracuse game, the final game of the regular season where Miami wins there in the SEC championship game and they're probably going to go to the College Football Playoff. And they wound up I think kicking a field goal from like the 10 yard line late in the game. And I just kind of like what are you, what are you doing? Like the probability of your defense stopping Syracuse, which they haven't stopped them all game. Again, that was a very personal type thing. But so I try, I try to be better than that. Usually I don't like to kind of call people out.

Dan Rubenstein

Do you have maybe not even data supported elements of how you look at games or trends? Something we do on the show is called a letdown look ahead sandwich where we're like, okay, this team just played a big game and they won or lost and whatever. And then next week they have something. I have no idea if the data supports it. What are your pet ways of looking at schedules and situations?

Chris Felica

I love looking at it and I don't have a way to quantify it either. Like, like can you write some sort of code and download game by game histories from either like the Billingsley data or College Football Reference and like quantify like a team. Who is it? Do you pull an upset, then you play another bad team and then you have another good team in between? Is it that is, is it like unranked team and then you have a top 10 team at home? There are a bunch of different ways to do it, but it is, it is absolutely something I look into. I can remember a Couple few years back when Mississippi State had a game against UMass and they were like a 30 something point favorite I think they were. And they didn't come close to covering and I believe that the next week they wind up hosting Texas A and M and A and M I think was fourth and the fifth and like the initial College Football Playoff rankings and of course they pull the upset as a dog there. So there are certain. My mentality and my thought process is these are 19, 20, 21 year old kids still for the most part you only have a finite measure of energy, emotion to use in certain weeks. And they're on campus, they hear people talking about Ohio State's coming in next week and oh yeah, we got, we got Rutgers this week. Like it's only natural to have a, a bit of a letdown. You know, coaches are spending a lot of time during that week looking ahead to other games as well. So that is one of the bigger handicapping tools that I have in my, in my toolbox is looking for the, the let down look ahead sandwich game. I know a lot of Danny Sheridan is very big on that too. Especially with the, the SEC cupcake week late in the year that I guess now is going to be going away. But you can find, you can find a lot. Like I can remember last year people at this time of the year talking about like Oklahoma going to Temple the week before they played.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Yep, I remember this. Yeah, I remember this well.

Chris Felica

And they went to Temple and they wound up winning very, very easily and getting the, and getting the coverage. So it doesn't always work. I mean a lot of times it's, it's baked into the line but, but it's still something you have to pay attention to.

Dan Rubenstein

Here's what I want with all of your filtering abilities and we talk about this on the show. We have not quantified it in any sort of accurate way. A lot of people point to weather, they point to the time change stuff. I want all of the elevation metrics. I want the teams playing at sea level who suddenly have to play at Wyoming, who suddenly have to play in Salt Lake City or Provo. That I think is the next, the next untrod data that we could probably use to our advantage. How do you feel about elevation?

Chris Felica

That's a great one. I think it absolutely matter. I think if you look at Utah and BYU at home, I think the numbers probably do bear something out there. I can remember doing a background way back when trying to figure out like the best home field advantage. And I was just Trying to do like difference in win percentage at home and on the road. And I think when I did this at some point in the 90s, like Washington had like the biggest difference between like home winning Washington and Auburn were like the two biggest differences in like home win percentage and road road win percentage. But have you guys been to either Rice Eccles or byu?

Dan Rubenstein

Well, I've only been to Rice Eccles.

Chris Felica

Yeah, it is a. The fans are right on top of you. It's right there in, in the mountain area. It's all, yeah, BYU the same way. That is, that is something.

Dan Rubenstein

But like, oh, look, there's a whole conference named after it. Although some of the teams are in the Pac 12 now. But in the Mountain West. Right. A bunch of those schools. Air Force is up there. Boise, I believe is up there.

Chris Felica

Wyoming's definitely up there to be very, very prominent in that too. Sonny Lubigara. They were always a difficult place to go play when they had Moses Moreno and Kevin McDougal and Bradley Pelt.

Dan Rubenstein

Sure.

Ty Hildenbrandt

So let me ask you this. You mentioned this earlier that you started forming opinions of teams for this coming season. Are you finding teams or team, you know, opinions that you'd be willing to share with us here today where you are trusting a team maybe more than the betting markets are trusting a team. Who are some of those squads that stand out now?

Chris Felica

Now you're, now you're asking. That's like taboo for me because you're, you're asking me to get to the, for the O word, which is over.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Okay.

Chris Felica

I'm not necessarily an over guy.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Okay. Do you find that kills the fun? Because I don't like betting on. I feel like it kills the fun.

Chris Felica

I think it's more fun.

Dan Rubenstein

Wow.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Okay.

Chris Felica

I think, I think it's more fun because I think you, you have kind of, kind of a contrarian opinion and I think the contrarian opinions kind of, kind of are more beneficial for, for, for, for wagering and predicting because at this time everybody thinks their team's gonna be good.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Well, here, this is the sound that we play. So it, this is our trust meter here with Chris Felica. It could be teams maybe that you trust more teams that you trust less than whatever the Lions are. Who are those teams for you that maybe you've looked at?

Chris Felica

I do trust Indiana and I wrote a little column earlier. They're going to have, I think they're going to have a 22 year winning streak when they host Ohio State on October 17th. The players and the schedule is easy. Players they brought in the portal, the culture of winning there. Now, are they a national title contender again? Can they beat Ohio State? Can they rip off a playoff run like they had? I don't know. But people who I think are the doubters of Indiana, I think need to, need to go away because I think they proved last year that they, with the collector that they have and the GM and the coaching staff that they have to stay. I do think the winner of the Miami Notre Dame game here is one of my, one of my bigger bold takes. I think the winner of Miami Notre Dame and South Bend will be number one going into the College Football Playoff. I think that game is for the number one seed. I think Miami has the potential to be better than they were last year. Now, yes, they lose a lot of leaders, a lot of veteran starters on that team that kind of led by example on the field and in the locker room. But talent wise, they could be more talented this year. And I think C.J. carr, obviously year two, with the way Notre Dame is recruited and that's scheduled as well. There's a BYU example for you. They got to go to Provo.

Ty Hildenbrandt

They do.

Chris Felica

That could be their one interesting game. But I think they'll, I think they're better than byu. I think they'll get out of there with the win. So yeah, I think Miami, Notre Dame are certainly two playoff teams. Oregon as well, if you want to look for another popular team. Actually, I made a wager, gosh, I guess it was six weeks ago or so. Now at FanDuel you're allowed to parlay these teams to make the playoff. And I'm sure it's. The prices are long gone now, but you could parlay Miami, Notre Dame and Oregon to make the playoffs and you got like minus 116 or something on that. And something's going to have to go very wrong, I think for one of those teams to. To miss the playoffs. So those are some of the teams right now that I am a little bit higher on than others for looking for some of the teams that I may be not as high on. I think Michigan State is a team that is getting a lot of love. I went under four and a half on their win total. But I have a big Pat Fitzgerald guy. I think he got screwed at Northwestern, but he went 4 and 8 in his final year. You take away the COVID year in 2020 and final three years at Northwestern, he was 7 and 29. Like how much did this pass the sport changed since he was last coaching and look, I would love to see him do. Well, if you look at their schedule, it's, it's a problem in the Big Ten. Even though they don't have Ohio State, they don't have Indiana. You play Notre Dame in the non conference. I think they are going to struggle mightily. Florida State, a team that we talked about. If you look at their quarterback situation right now, their portal situation is not great. They are, I think they are in big trouble again this year. Arkansas, I think they're going to again fail to win an SEC game. You bring in Ryan Silverfield, but you lose all of your offense. You look, you look at the conferences, the conference schedule that they have. I just don't know where you, where you're going to get a win at Vandy, at Auburn, home, Missouri, home, South Carolina. I just, I see them as an under, under four and a half as well.

Dan Rubenstein

So you, you've occupied an interesting part of the college football universe and a unique part because you've been everywhere. I've been a lot of places. Ty's been some places. You've been everywhere. Has anything changed during your travels with the sport? Is it a vibes thing that's changed or is it completely remain like everything changes in the sport but Saturdays are sort of the same on campus. What, what have you or have you not noticed about how your experience has changed over the years?

Chris Felica

I kind of hate that I'm saying this. I've noticed in a lot of instances like maybe fewer fans games, the game experience. I don't know if it's on a week in, week out basis if it's what it once was. I mean I don't know if it's a people would rather just either tailgate or people would rather just hang it, hang at home, go to the bar, go to the rest, watch a bunch of games. Because a lot of times with games on at the same time, you're missing a lot of stuff. So I've noticed, I noticed that in a sense like I know with the, with the game day and the big noon crowd, like it's always kind of there because you get a new group of people coming to the campus every year. But it feels like fans at the game that might be a little bit, a little bit on the, on the decline. And I think people in fans more and more apt to be negative on their team more, more booing, more fire the coach, more bench this guy. I find a lot more of that these days than I think I did in the past. It was one of the things that kind of LSU always stood out to me, like, I always thought they were the best fans out there because they were brutally honest about their team. They, when they were good, they let you know about it and they supported, but they, when they were bad, they had their reasons and those reasons were accurate and they let you know about it. But. But it seems like there's a. There's just a lot of just like negative for the sake of being negative right now. I don't know.

Dan Rubenstein

It's. No, I think that's reasonable. I think we've noticed that especially online and how, you know, fans seem to

Chris Felica

be social media age.

Dan Rubenstein

Yeah.

Chris Felica

So. And I know even you talk about, like, my travels. Like, I'm always aware of that. Like, I can think back to like the. I mean, think back to like the, the mid to late 90s or on a, like a college game day weekend where you could go out and you could go to dinner and then you could go out to like the swamp in Gainesville or the supper club or somewhere and you didn't have to worry about like, a camera phone or you could enjoy a. A beverage before going in for an early night and going to work and just kind of hanging. And now you could, you could never do that. You couldn't put yourself in the public space. You wouldn't want that to be out there. From like a personal standpoint, that. That's something you always are aware that people are gonna, Whether you. They have a positive interaction or a negative interaction or experience or how you respond to people coming up to you saying, hello, do you want a picture? I mean, even if you're having, like, maybe the worst day, you know that, like, I want to be nice to everybody. I want to take pictures with everybody. I want to talk to everybody. Not just because I'm concerned about, oh, no, if I say no to this person or I'm asleep on a plane and they happen to walk by, and I just, I just want to be good to everybody because I know that without them, there is no me and there is no traveling show and there is no sports and there's no, there's nothing else. So. But. But just, just kind of eliminating the bad positions that you put. Put yourself in because of Twitter and Instagram and social media and camera phones.

Dan Rubenstein

Right now, he's dribbling the ball with everything on the line. He's driving down the pitch. He's facing price hikes and cuts past him. Carrier contracts, tries to block him. Oh, he leaves him in the dust. He's at the edge of the box. He cuts past the non stop group chat trash talk he clears on goal. He shoots unlimited data for $25 a month forever.

Ty Hildenbrandt

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Chris Felica

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Dan Rubenstein

downtown and tell a receptionist I'm here

Ty Hildenbrandt

to talk about my downtown.

Chris Felica

Some things you'd rather type than say out loud. There's no question too embarrassing For Amazon Health AI, chat your symptoms and get virtual care 24. 7 Healthcare just got less painful.

Ty Hildenbrandt

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Dan Rubenstein

Jeff Schwartz said to 100% ask you about College Town Food. What is on the new A list? You've been everywhere, it's been a long time where you've been doing these shows of new places that you've been to in the last, I don't know, three, four, five years. What has made the hair on your head stand up?

Chris Felica

Well, it's gonna be very, very hard to supplant the Smoking Pig at Clemson. It's actually, it's actually in Pendleton, South Carolina. I know Dreamland gets a lot of love for its barbecue in Alabama, but the Smoking Pig is fantastic. It is the best barbecue that I have had to if you are going to a road game in Clemson, what's the order? The order is you get they have a great like. Bloated baked potato, mashed potato thing. It's awesome. The, they've got a great peach cobbler dessert. The, the, the, the pulled chicken, the pulled pork, the brisket. It's all fantastic. Obviously macaroni and cheeses top notch as well. And you get yourself a gallon of sweet tea and you're sticking to the floor as you, as you walk out. So you, so you're good to go there. Soto Soto in Atlanta is awesome. Some of the I think they call like pre strangler pasta is ridiculously good but you can't go any of the parms are fantastic. Really, really authentic stuff. It's Soto. Soto in Atlanta. I need to pull up a map of the.

Dan Rubenstein

You should have your own map at this point.

Chris Felica

I should have a map. I should have an app. I should have. I could be at my own. My own little, like, college towns across the. Eat with the Bear. Giuseppe's is a really good Italian place in Columbus. That's another good. But the Jeff Ruby barrel cut filet at Jeff Ruby Steakhouse, whether you're in Cincinnati or Louisville or Columbus, the barrel cut filet is the best cut of meat that you're ever going to get. So. So that is a. Is a good go to. Let.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Let me get you out of here on this because I know we both have World cup on the brain. I know you're into it. Dan and I have been getting into it. I was at the game in Seattle. I'm going to the game in San Francisco. My wife and I fully have the fever where we're fired up. Given your proclivity for all things betting, I'm going to present you with a hypothetical to wrap the show for a second. And I don't know your betting tolerance, but let's assume you're a real cowboy, all right? Let's assume you're one of those guys that takes everything out of the bank. You take it to Vegas for just one bet, you got your whole life savings you can put on a bet. How far are you willing to put your life savings on the United States going in the World Cup?

Chris Felica

32. We're talking like as a better. As a handicapper, as someone who everyone is getting caught up in World cup fever right now. Can't you see a possibility where the hype is beyond belief and we're sitting there playing Bosnia in the round of 32 and it's frigging nil. Nil. And we're going to stop it and we're going to add a time.

Ty Hildenbrandt

I mean, you did say you're an under better. So you're not. You're not necessarily want to buy into the hype is what I'm detecting here.

Chris Felica

Yes. Correct. They are clearly better than they have been. Way better than what they've been. And Poke is a great manager and I'm sure he's going to be gone after this. But true serum, I think they will get to the round of 16. I wouldn't really count on them going much further than that. If you're going to be in the. In the. In the part of the bracket that they're going to be out there, they're not going to Beat Spain in the quarterfinal. Like, that is as far as they will go. And if they get that far, that is amazing. Like I said before the tournament, like, round of 16 is what they needed to reach.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Right.

Chris Felica

And I do think that they will get there because certainly now it looked like they were going to be drawing Belgium, but now the Belgium.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Yeah, forget about that

Chris Felica

now. You're probably going to be getting Egypt. You should be in Egypt and then in the round and around the 16. So that's. If you get past Bosnia, which you should, you're better than Bosnia.

Dan Rubenstein

But yeah, they're down their best player at the moment.

Chris Felica

Yep. They're gonna, they're gonna be a lot of hype, a lot of expectation. It's going to be everyone questioning you now to patting you on the back and oh, wow, we're going to make a run to, oh, can we beat Spain and, oh, we can beat Spain and then we can beat France and then we can beat Argentina or England in the final. Like, like that's not happening. But quarterfinals, it's not out of the realm of possibility. See, what I thought you were going to ask me was like, take, you have to make one bet or one type of bet, what would it be?

Ty Hildenbrandt

Okay, what would it be?

Chris Felica

And it would be under two and a half in a high stakes knockout round game because of that reason, the style of play.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Right.

Chris Felica

Teams not wanting to make mistakes. And I actually did make a bet prior to the, the World cup and it might, it might still be out there. I, I don't know if the numbers moved or the prices moved, but I did bet over four and a half penalty shootouts because you're getting another 16 matches. In the last go round, you had five. And as I laid, I think I laid like 195 or something like that on over four and a half. And I know a lot of places had five and a half, but I would expect that we'd see five knockout around penalty shootouts for sure.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Yeah, well, you got an extra round, you have more games. I mean it, it definitely gives you more bites at the apple. All right, Chris Felica from Fox Sports from the big Noon universe, formerly of the college game day universe, the bare bets podcast that he does with our good friend Jeff Schwartz. First time on the show. It's been a pleasure. We'll have to have you on sometime soon.

Chris Felica

Yeah, yeah, let's do it again. Either the season gets closer or during the season, maybe, maybe you can have Jeff and my ugly mugs.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Yeah, let's do it. That'd be great.

Chris Felica

I'll throw a Miami hat on. He could throw his. We'll be good to go.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Do you also get texts from him at like 6am in the morning about Oregon football? Like he sends to Dan?

Chris Felica

Oh yeah.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Okay.

Chris Felica

Yeah, it's not always Oregon football these days. It's like the WNBA is an unseriously because it's a clip of like Caitlin Clark getting called for technical foul after she gets elbowed in the face or it's something to do with one of the social media betting influencers out there who like gives out a bad price and that's non existent and they win. Or it's like the ramblings of someone that has nothing to do with. It's good stuff. But yeah, it's always like 6:30 in the morning early and I get it when I wake up at like 8:30. Yeah, I don't, I don't have two kids to get off to school or camp or whatever else. He's got that to worry about. Me, I'm up late at night watching Jordan in Algeria play into the wee hours in the morning, same close up till about 8:30, quarter to 9 and then I'll lay there. What's Jeff got to say? Who's Jeff fading today? All that good stuff.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Awesome. Thanks, Chris.

Chris Felica

You got it, guys.

Ty Hildenbrandt

All right, Dan.

Dan Rubenstein

There you go.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Chris Felika, Fox Sports, the Bear Bets podcast. Go and check him out. Make sure you throw him a follow on social media as well. I love talking about experimental stats. That is a thing for me. It's always been a thing for me. Have you ever had that curiosity that I described earlier where you're watching a game, they pull out some random. It's a lot of baseball, to be honest with you, but they pull out this random scenario from the Elias Sports Bureau and I just wonder to myself how. Who is in charge of finding this? How are they finding. There's no way there is a predetermined thing that you can just click on and find what a guy ate before a game in 1935 or what. You know what I mean?

Dan Rubenstein

Well, baseball is especially good because you get those old names.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Oh yeah.

Dan Rubenstein

Like nobody has tripled in 11 consecutive games since hopscotch. Tillman.

Ty Hildenbrandt

That's right.

Dan Rubenstein

You know, there's those guys. Tomato can Boyd Stevenson. Well, there, there was an oil can Boyd.

Chris Felica

Excuse me.

Dan Rubenstein

Yeah, but yeah, there, those are the, you know, Treehouse McGee. So yeah, we don't unfortunately have detailed stats for college football that go back that long a distance. But yes, I think Chris was doing the AFLAC trivia stuff. You know, come back from commercial, go into commercial, they'd ask the question and come back and Kirk would try to guess it. That was always fun. But yeah, the experimental stats I'm always on board with. That's why I want elevation numbers. That's literally, figuratively.

Ty Hildenbrandt

I could probably figure that we have people who listen to us in our verballer hood, in our discord, frankly.

Dan Rubenstein

Right.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Who I think would be down to help with that.

Dan Rubenstein

It can't be like if we were to go back. I mean, look, if you go back five years, 10 years, and you look at teams covering spreads at home and like what the biggest discrepancies are, covering home and road teams that are playing at elevation. That's interesting to me.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Do you think if we figured out the delta, the location or the elevation at the location where they are based versus the elevation that they are playing their game at and then somehow looked at like a point differential and how it compares to, you know, I guess you'd have to like normalize it somehow. But is that. Is that kind of what you're thinking?

Dan Rubenstein

Yes, absolutely. I just want to know, like. And I had this conversation with our guest last week. My guest last week on the Bonus show, Monty McNair, former president and GM of the Sacramento King.

Ty Hildenbrandt

That was great, by the way.

Dan Rubenstein

He was on our bonus show.

Ty Hildenbrandt

It was on the plane. That was great.

Dan Rubenstein

He was talking about how much, you know, home. Home court advantage is worth and different referees and the idea that, okay, normal home field advantage in college football, let's say it's worth an average of 2.7 points or something like that, but at elevation. Elevation it's 3.9. Right. That there is actual data to support it. Because I don't think there's body blow data to support that theory. Even though obviously that's ironclad and let down. Look ahead, sandwich. Like, that's all like, subjective. How you define those games. Elevations. Elevation, Ty. Which is also interesting. When the Mountain west existed in the way that it used to exist because you'd have the west teams not playing at elevation. You know, your San Diego State. I hope San Diego State's not at elevation, but then they would play against, you know, Air Force or Colorado State or something like that. And to see the discrepancy in those home and away games, how teams did when they were used to playing at elevation and had to go elsewhere and vice versa. So I don't know, Ty. I think there's enough data, if you go back enough years.

Ty Hildenbrandt

I mean, we're living in a three dimensional universe, man.

Dan Rubenstein

This is true. I don't know what that means, but it's true.

Ty Hildenbrandt

I mean, it goes up. You gotta, you gotta like, you know, factor that in.

Dan Rubenstein

Yeah, agree.

Ty Hildenbrandt

All right, well, big thanks to the Bear for stopping on by here. It was a pleasure to have him on the show here. It's been a long time coming. So glad we were able to finally make that work. As I said at the very top, please hit follow or subscribe if you have yet to do so because previews are just around the corner. Got another episode or so before we fully dive in and start getting you ready for the season. But if you've already done that important first step and follow what we do, we would encourage you to leave a review, leave a star rating, tell your friends at a minimum about the show we are welcoming here in the footballer hood. All are welcome to stop on by and talk college football with us. Dan?

Dan Rubenstein

Definitely.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Why don't we leave it there? We will be back as I said, before long. Make sure you check those feeds. Check our social media channels for updates on when the next episode is going to drop. As you and I are doing some travel, we would welcome everybody to stop on by. As I said, solidrebel.com is the website if you want to find out more about what we do. For that guy over there, my good friend Dan Rubenstein. For our guest of honor today, Chris Felica. We'll be back soon. In the meantime for that guy, Dan, for myself, Ty, you know the drill. Stay solid.

Dan Rubenstein

Peace.

Chris Felica

Grainger knows. When you're a procurement manager for an

Ty Hildenbrandt

office park, you're not managing one building,

Chris Felica

you're managing all of them.

Ty Hildenbrandt

And to stay ahead, you need to

Chris Felica

see through walls and around corners.

Ty Hildenbrandt

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Chris Felica

H Vac on its last leg.

Ty Hildenbrandt

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Chris Felica

The game started.

Dan Rubenstein

Call your dad.

Chris Felica

I'm on it. Ma.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Hello?

Dan Rubenstein

I can't hear you.

Chris Felica

I'm at the stadium in Monterrey.

Dan Rubenstein

Cool.

Ty Hildenbrandt

Here, shout go together. Get non stop talk tax and Data in the U.S. mexico and Canada with T Mobile, America's best network. Switch on the TLife app or on t mobile.com connect at it on qualifying plans not for extended international use. You must reside in the US in primary usage must occur in our network. Best Based on analysis by Ooklo Speed Test Intelligence Data 2H2025 this is Tab Ramos from Inside American Soccer and this summer, topgolf is turning into the ultimate soccer destination. They've got a new soccer themed game you can play with your group, exclusive food and drink items. They've even installed full size soccer goals so you can try to hit golf balls right into the net and every match all summer long will be on throughout the venue. And if you want to keep the fun going all summer, you can get the topgolf Summer Fun Pass, which lets you play every single day and bring up to five guests every visit. Get yours now@TopGolf.com FunPass this is an iHeart podcast.

Chris Felica

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